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Burke Chair on Iran's Military and Nuclear Capabilities

Palestinian-Israeli Conflict: Intifada
In late September 2004, the Israeli-Palestinian War will enter its fifth year. The conflict that began in September 2000 is much more than an uprising. It is a low-intensity war, in which asymmetric warfare has replaced the peace process, and politics have become an extension of war by other means. Both sides attempt to exploit sympathies in the international media, both have received support from outside actors, both have proved willing to use international law, human rights and civilian casualties to legitimize their individual position, while demonizing their opponents. Despite efforts to achieve peace, the conflict has remained bitter, the opposing sides polarized, and the attainment of real, lasting peace distant.
 
Escalating to Nowhere: The Israeli-Palestinian War examines the historical, political and security dimensions of the Israeli-Palestinian conflict. It explores major events and issues; causes and consequences of the use of asymmetric tactics; the capabilities, tactics and motivations of each side; the relationship between settlements and suicide bombers; and issues that have been the most significant obstacles to peace. In addition, the study considers the potential cost of "peace with violence" if and when a settlement is achieved.
 
This study is a work in progress. Updated chapters will be made available as they are completed. This draft represents the working views of the author. It will change substantially over time as comments and suggestions are received, and it does not reflect final conclusions or the views of the CSIS.

I. INTRODUCTION
The issues, actors' behavior and possible consequences of the war
II. FROM PEACE TO WAR: LAND FOR PEACE OR SETTLEMENTS FOR WAR?
The Oslo/Wye framework and pre-war efforts to achieve peace
III. FROM PEACE TO WAR: TERRORISM FOR SETTLEMENTS
Palestinian and Israeli security organizations during the peace process
IV. THE FINAL SETTLEMENT ISSUES: ASYMMETRIC VALUES AND ASYMMETRIC WARFARE
Examines issues that represent the most significant obstacles to peace
V. THE COLLAPSE OF THE PEACE PROCESS
Details the last pre-war efforts to achieve peace and the opening events of the war
VI. THE ACTORS IN THE CONFLICT: THE ISRAELI DEFENSE FORCES
The tactics, problems and human rights assessment of the IDF and Israeli security forces; the impact of Israeli hard-line movements and extremists
VII. THE ACTORS IN THE CONFLICT: THE PALESTINIAN FACTIONS ALIGNED WITH THE PALESTINIAN AUTHORITY
The motives, organization and tactics of the factions aligned with Arafat and the Palestinian Authority
VIII. THE ACTORS IN THE CONFLICT: THE PALESTINIAN FACTIONS THAT CHALLENGE PEACE AND THE PALESTINIAN AUTHORITY
The history, objectives, organization and evolving tactics of the factions that oppose the peace process and the Palestinian Authority
IX. THE OUTSIDE ACTORS THAT HAVE SHAPED THE ISRAELI-PALESTINIAN CONFLICT
The history, objectives and tactics of the outside actors that have influenced the Israeli-Palestinian conflict in the past and will likely do so in the future.
X. FIGHTING AND FAILED PEACE EFFORTS
A history of the conflict from September 2000 to the present, including a detailed chronology of events
XI. CASUALTY TRENDS AND THE COSTS OF THE WAR
Examines trends in the human, economic, social and political costs of the war
XII. THE IDF FOCUS ON ISOLATION, CONTAINMENT, AND THE SELECTIVE USE OF CONVENTIONAL MILITARY POWER
Considers shifts in IDF strategy from containment and isolation to invasion, siege and limited reoccupation
XIII. THE PALESTINIAN RESPONSE: THE BATTLE FOR PUBLIC OPINION AND THE CHALLENGE OF REFORMING THE PALESTINIAN AUTHORITY
Through three case-studies, examines how various tactics that major Palestinian forces employ impact the political battle for public and international opinion
XIV. THE COURSE OF THE CONFLICT IN GAZA
XV. THE COURSE OF THE CONFLICT IN THE WEST BANK AND "GREATER JERUSALEM"
XVI. THE COURSE OF THE CONFLICT IN ISRAEL PROPER
XVII. PEACE WITH VIOLENCE VERSUS VIOLENCE WITHOUT PEACE
Considers the likelihood of achieving a peace agreement, potential difficulties that could arise as a result, and considerations for the future

 

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