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Freeman Chair in China Studies

U.S.-China Strategic Nuclear Dynamic

The United States and China are entering a strategic nuclear relationship fundamentally different from that of the past. As China modernizes its nuclear arsenal and places greater emphasis on strategic offense, it will achieve a more reliable and credible deterrent. The United States will emphasize strategic defense, strategic conventional deterrence, and preemption, with a partial eye to China's strategic modernization. This uncertain transition period is already marked by suspicions and lack of transparency, and could lead to offense-defense racing and a deepening divide in U.S.-China relations. To avoid negative consequences and introduce greater stability to the U.S.-China nuclear dynamic, concerned observers must think more seriously about alleviating tensions, clarifying intentions, and introducing reassurance measures into this uncertain equation.

In the absence of such discussions at the official level, this project examines and offers recommendations on the evolving U.S.-China strategic nuclear dynamic through publications, briefings, and an ongoing "track 1.5" dialogue between government and nongovernment specialists from the United States and China. The project greatly benefits from a close working partnership with the Foundation for International Strategic Studies (FISS) in Beijing and the Arms Control Department of the Chinese Foreign Ministry. Project activities include:

  • High-level "track 1.5" exchanges: Following on a U.S. State-department supported visit to Beijing in January 2001 which included discussions with senior Party, PLA and Foreign Ministry officials, the project will co-sponsor a return visit to Washington by Chinese counterparts. Continued exchanges are expected over 2003-2004.

  • Briefings and consultations: This project has delivered studies to the National Intelligence Council, offered testimony to Congressional committees, and provided advice to State Department and National Security Council officials.

  • Research and publications: Work from the project has appeared in the t ("A Look at the China Puzzle", March 5, 2000), the ("China's Nuclear Agenda", September 7, 2001), and ("Can China's Tolerance Last?", January 2002). A forthcoming chapter in the book , by Bates Gill, focuses on the U.S.-China nuclear relationship, and the project will issue a lengthy monograph on the topic.
     
Looking further ahead, the two sides should revive dormant defense consultation talks and begin a more serious and realistic strategic dialogue. Such discussions will need to address … how the two sides can maintain a stable relationship in the event that missile defense systems are built.

- Bates Gill in a op-ed, April 12, 2001

 

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