We are entering a new demographic era in the developed countries in which immigration will play a decisive role in determining the long-term prospects for population and economic growth. Yet most official immigration projections in the United States and abroad still rely on ad-hoc assumptions based on little theory and virtually no definable methodology.
At the request of the U.S. Social Security Administration, the Global Aging Initiative recently undertook a major study of long-term immigration projections. The study assesses where major projection-making agencies worldwide now stand in their practice of immigration projection, scans the wide and varied array of theoretical frameworks and empirical studies that attempt to explain international migration flows, and outlines a new “driver-based” projection methodology developed by CSIS.
The purpose of the forum was to familiarize the Social Security Trustees with CSIS’ findings—and, more broadly, to explore the key challenges that projection-making agencies face in improving long-term immigration projections.
Long-Term Immigration Projection Methods: Current Practice and How to Improve It
