Below, please find the latest articles to have appeared in print and electronic media about CSIS and its experts. For your reference, there is also a link to archived media coverage of CSIS.
Anthony Cordesman, the CSIS Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, was quoted by the Associated Press, "West Links Drug War Aid to Iranian Nuclear Impasse."
TEHRAN, Iran (AP) -- Iranian forces have battled for years in the lonely canyons and deserts on the Afghan border against opium and heroin traffickers -- winning rare praise from the United States and aid from Europe for the fight along one of the world's busiest drug routes.Establishing security and delivering aid in southern Afghanistan would do much more to tackle the drug problem and stop the Taliban, said Anthony Cordesman, a security analyst for the U.S.-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.Read more
June 20
Anthony Cordesman, the CSIS Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, was quoted by the Los Angeles Times, "Iraq Crackdown in Amarah Begins Smoothly."
Iraqi security forces Thursday arrested the mayor of Amarah and a provincial council member, both supporters of Shiite Muslim cleric Muqtada Sadr's religious movement, on the first day of a military crackdown. They met little resistance as senior aides to Sadr said his Mahdi Army militia had pledged to cooperate with the operation to avoid putting civilians in the southern city at risk. "The fact is, nobody clearly understands," said Iraq expert Anthony Cordesman of the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies.Read the article
June 19
Anthony Cordesman, the CSIS Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, was quoted by the Chicago Tribune, "Bush Leads Calls to Drill off U.S. Shore."
Just a few months ago, President George W. Bush said he "hadn't heard" that gas might reach $4 per gallon. [. . .] Anthony Cordesman, an expert on energy and security at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank, said estimates of the potential oil reserves in the Outer Continental Shelf may be exaggerated, and it will be years before anyone knows the real amount of oil in that area.Read More
June 18
Anthony Cordesman, the CSIS Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, was quoted by Forbes, "Uncle Sam and Oil."
Suppose for a moment that Congress listens to President Bush's remarks Wednesday and removes the decades-old ban on offshore drilling for oil and natural gas on the Outer Continental Shelf. Who wins, aside from the oil industry?[. . .] Anthony Cordesman, an energy expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies and a former national security assistant to McCain, says trying to solve the problem by focusing on supply or demand won't help the U.S. achieve energy independence. And it won't make oil cheap. "It may just make it less expensive," he says. Read More
June 11
Anthony Cordesman, the CSIS Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, was quoted by the Los Angeles Times, "Iraq Officials Question Need for U.S. Troop Presence."
Officials in Prime Minister Nouri Maliki's ruling coalition are questioning whether Iraq needs a U.S. military presence even as the two countries press forward with high-pressure negotiations to determine how long American forces will remain. Some officials in Maliki's Islamic Dawa Party and his larger Shiite United Iraqi Alliance bloc, which has cooperated with the U.S., have spoken in favor of imposing severe restrictions on U.S. forces after the United Nations mandate authorizing their presence expires at the end of the year."Some never supported a sustained U.S. presence from the Coalition Provisional Authority onwards. Some were willing to accept a limited U.S. presence that brought them to power and then defeated Sunni forces, but oppose lasting ties with a non-Islamic and non- Arab state," said Iraq expert Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.Read the article
May 23
Anthony Cordesman, the CSIS Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, was quoted by the New York Times, "Iraq Spending Rules Ignored, Pentagon Says."
A Pentagon audit of $8.2 billion in American taxpayer money spent by the United States Army on contractors in Iraq has found that almost none of the payments followed federal rules and that in some cases, contracts worth millions of dollars were paid for despite little or no record of what, if anything, was received."This report is further documentation of the fact that the United States had absolutely no preparation to use contracting on the scale that it needed either at the military or aid level in going to war in Iraq," said Anthony H. Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “We had really allowed ourselves to become more and more dependent on contractors in peacetime,” said Mr. Cordesman, who spoke in a telephone interview on Thursday. “We were unprepared to use contractors in wartime, and all of this had an immense impact.” Read more
May 16
Anthony Cordesman, the CSIS Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, and Jon Alterman, director of the CSIS Middle East Program, were quoted by the Associated Press, "Bush in Saudi Arabia to discuss oil."
RIYADH, Saudi Arabia - President Bush, on a one-day visit to Saudi Arabia, is taking a second stab on Friday at getting the oil-rich nation to increase production and drive down the soaring gasoline prices hurting U.S. consumers.Anthony Cordesman, a security analyst for the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said Abdullah may produce something "simply because it's good manners," but nothing that would have a significant effect."U.S. influence over OPEC and Gulf oil production is diminished," he said. "It's not clear what the incentive is to Saudi Arabia. We can't deliver on (Mideast) peace. We can't deliver on arms transfers. We can't deliver on the Iraq that Saudi Arabia wants. We are raising problems in terms of Iran. And the reality is the market isn't being driven by us; it's being driven by China, by India, by rising Asian demand."Jon Alterman, director of the CSIS' Middle East program, said the Saudis, with a public that doesn't like Bush and a ruling monarchy with growing interests elsewhere, are not likely "to put themselves out to help this president.""The Saudis don't have an alternative to keeping the U.S. in its corner, but their reliance on the United States, their confidence in the United States is extremely shaken," Alterman said.Read more
May 16
Anthony Cordesman, the CSIS Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, was quoted by CNN.com, "Shiite Power Struggle Behind Iraq Clashes, Analysts Say."
Recent deadly clashes in Basra and Baghdad's Sadr City represent Shiite-vs.-Shiite political maneuvering ahead of Iraqi provincial elections, analysts say. And the fighting, according to the analysts who study Iraq, represents the struggle between U.S.-backed Shiites and those allied with the anti-American cleric Muqtada al-Sadr. [ . . .] The Center for Strategic and International Studies' Anthony Cordesman expressed similar ideas in an April report called "The Shi'ite Gamble: Rolling the Dice for Iraq's Future." Read More
May 16
Anthony Cordesman, the CSIS Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, was quoted by Agence France Press, "Bush Leaves Mideast Legacy of Unresolved Problems."
JERUSALEM (AFP) — As George W Bush left Israel on Friday, with only months to go as US president, he appeared confident his legacy there and in the wider Middle East would be a positive one. Anthony Cordesman, a regional expert at the Washington-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies, mentions a few more facts that are not nearly as encouraging. Firstly, he points to the 2006 summer war between Israel and Lebanon's Shiite militant group Hezbollah "with all of the repercussions, what it did in terms of impressions of the IDF (Israeli army), Israeli security." Cordesman also referred to a September 2007 Israeli attack on what the United States claims was a nuclear reactor in Syria, pointing to fears that Damascus might be seeking its own atomic weapons or aiding ally Iran in its suspected bid to acquire them. "The United States, I think, has endorsed it, and I frankly have my sympathy for that," Cordesman said. Read more
May 11
Anthony Cordesman, the CSIS Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, and Jon Alterman, director of the CSIS Middle East Program, were quoted by McClatchy News Service, "Bush's Influence in Mideast Wanes."
With a new scandal enveloping the Israeli prime minister and Hezbollah militants flexing their muscle in Lebanon, President Bush will confront even longer odds for success when he travels to the Middle East this week to work on two elusive objectives_peace and lower oil prices. Bush, arriving in Israel on Wednesday to join in the nation's 60th anniversary celebrations, still hopes for an agreement by year's end between the Israelis and Palestinians over the contours of a new Palestinian state. But calls over the weekend for Israeli Prime Minister Ehud Olmert to resign amid allegations of bribery have further undermined hopes for successful peace talks. [...] "It's hard to remember a less auspicious time to pursue Arab-Israeli peacemaking than right now," said Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. [...] Anthony Cordesman, an expert in energy and military strategy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said, "The fact is that, is this going to change the agreements being reached" by Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries? "It's very, very difficult to see how."Read the article
May 10
Anthony Cordesman, the CSIS Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, was quoted by Reuters, "Troops Kill 25 Militants in Iraqi Slum, U.S. Says."
American forces have killed 25 militants in the past two days in Sadr City, the Baghdad district that is a stronghold of the anti-American cleric Moktada al-Sadr, the United States military said Friday. [ . . .] "Iraqi officials are dealing with a developing chain of command that often leaps to conclusions and reports success before it occurs, often under pressure from the media," Anthony H. Cordesman, a security analyst for the Center for Strategic and International Studies, told The A.P. Read More
May 10
Anthony Cordesman, the CSIS Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, and Jon Alterman, director of the CSIS Middle East Program, were quoted by the New York Times, "As Bush Term Wanes, Mideast Peace Appears Elusive as Ever."
The 2008 race for the White House is casting a long shadow over President Bush. So long, in fact, that it may extend all the way to the Middle East. When Israeli and Palestinian leaders committed themselves to peace talks after meeting in Annapolis, Md., last November, Mr. Bush had hopes of ending his presidency on a foreign policy high note, with a deal for the contours of a Palestinian state. But with Mr. Bush headed to the region this week for the second time in five months, peace seems as elusive as ever — and some are looking to his successor. “In some ways, this is the roadshow cast of ‘Waiting for Godot,’ ” said Anthony H. Cordesman, a Middle East expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. He said the trip would “basically set a marker while everybody waits for the next president,” while other analysts predicted the most Mr. Bush could accomplish would be to hand over a working peace process to his successor. The five-day trip, which will begin Tuesday, will revolve around the 60th anniversary of Israel’s founding, but will also take Mr. Bush to Saudi Arabia and Egypt. For the White House, the timing is hardly ideal. [...] “It’s hard to remember a less auspicious time to pursue Arab-Israeli peacemaking than right now,” Mr. Alterman said. “The politics on the ground are absolutely miserable. U.S. power and influence are at low ebb in the region. The Bush administration is beset by challenges — the combination of a faltering economy, persistent difficulties in Iraq and a growing threat from Iran — all at a time that the president’s popularity is at a historical low, and his administration is settling more and more into lame duck status.”Read the article
May 9
Anthony Cordesman, the CSIS Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, was quoted by the Associated Press, "Rocket Hits BBC Bureau in Baghdad."
BAGHDAD — Shiite extremists launched several rockets toward the heavily fortified Green Zone on Friday, taking advantage of a sudden sandstorm and low visibility that gave cover from attack by U.S. aircraft. Some of the rockets fell short."Iraqi officials are dealing with a developing chain of command that often leaps to conclusions and reports success before it occurs, often under pressure from the media," Anthony Cordesman, a security analyst for the Center for Strategic and International Studies said on Friday.Read more
Anthony Cordesman, the CSIS Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, was quoted by the Washington Post, "U.S. Seeks Contractors to Train Iraqi Military."
U.S. commanders in Iraq are for the first time seeking private contractors to form part of the small military teams that train and live with Iraqi military units across the country, according to a notice for prospective bidders published last week. The solicitation, issued by the Joint Contracting Command in Baghdad, says the individuals that a contractor recruits — who would include former members of the U.S. Special Forces and ex-Iraqi army officers — will be trained in the United States with military transition teams (MiTTs) and shipped as a single team to Iraq. The recruits will live on Iraqi military bases "under Iraqi living conditions and participate with MiTT special operations and convoy duties," the solicitation says. Anthony H. Cordesman, a former Pentagon official and now a scholar with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, described the new effort as an understandable step, given the current stresses facing the U.S. military. "There is a lot of pressure on the active Army, and during this transition period where the military is converting to noncombat roles, a shift to contractors as trainers for the expanding Iraqi military is a natural step." He added, however, that the outcome "depends on the quality of those the contractors recruit." Read the article
May 4
Anthony Cordesman, the CSIS Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, had an op-ed published in the New York Times, "Make an Orderly Exit."
IF the United States is to succeed in Iraq, if the Bush administration is to manage a credible transition to the next president and if there is to be any hope of a bipartisan approach to the war there, we need a clear plan to move forward. Good plans cannot guarantee the future, but they can provide good options. Over the next few years, the United States should seek to decrease its forces from the 15 combat brigades planned for July to no more than five, and reduce their role to a largely advisory one. This would largely eliminate the heavy loss in lives and reduce the cost of the war from $12 billion a month during the peak of the surge in 2007 to about $12 billion a year.Read the article
Anthony Cordesman, the CSIS Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, was quoted by the Christian Science Monitor, "With Syria 'Reactor' Video, U.S. Sends a Warning."
Washington - US intelligence officials have a message for potential nuclear proliferators: We're watching you, and we see more than you think. "This is very striking data to make public. It's clearly intended as a broader message to both the Syrian and North Korean governments," says Anthony Cordesman, a senior military analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. It is also possible that the US is sending a warning to Iran, says Mr. Cordesman. If Syria was developing a nuclear-weapons program, it would need fissile fuel for the reactor, a means of processing spent fuel, and design help, as well as the reactor itself. Read more
April 25
Anthony Cordesman, the CSIS Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, was quoted by the USA Today, "Mideast Peace Quest Test Endurance."
WASHINGTON — President Bush wrapped up two days of meetings with key Middle East leaders Thursday as he prepares for his second trip to the region this year in search of an increasingly elusive Israeli-Palestinian peace agreement.Anthony Cordesman, a senior military analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said a broad agreement isn't possible without addressing specific issues such as the borders of a Palestinian state, the status of Jerusalem, Palestinian refugees and Israeli security. "Where every square meter counts, nobody on either side can talk about broad, sweeping goals. Everything gets down to specifics," he said. "Is there any sign that we have made major substantive progress towards peace? The answer is 'no.' "Read more
Anthony Cordesman, the CSIS Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, was quoted by the USA Today, "Iraq Frees, Pardons Detainees."
Mohammed Hussain Ghafur dabbed his watery eyes moments after his two young sons jumped into his waiting arms. In the 20 months he languished in jail without charges, this had been his dream. His crime? Ghafur, 37, says he sold a car that was later used in a terrorist bombing. "They traced the address to me, and that was it," he said. He says he cooperated with police after he was arrested by U.S.-led coalition forces, but despite his pleas, "they never allowed me to defend myself or see a lawyer." Last summer's U.S. troop increase or "surge," which packed coalition and Iraqi jails, also poses a headache for those whose job is to hold them, says Anthony Cordesman, an Iraq expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. "Overcrowded facilities filled with a mix of real insurgents, part-timers and the innocent … become breeding grounds and training centers for the insurgency," he said. "The amnesty and release procedures are probably doing more good than harm, but much depends on what happens when young men return home."Read the article
April 21
Anthony Cordesman, the CSIS Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, was quoted by Reuters, "Experts: Iraq's Sadr Can Not Be Defeated by Force."
Iraqi Shi'ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr says the next step is "open war". The U.S.-backed government shows no sign of backing down. Suddenly, after many months in which the news from Iraq has been mostly about falling violence, the country is reeling towards a rebellion by millions of Sadr's followers against a government crackdown on his black-masked Mehdi Army militia. [...] "It is important to note... that the Sadrists did not win any previous clashes with (U.S. and British forces), have not won any significant clashes in this round of fighting, seem to have lost in Basra and have not had any overt Iranian encouragement and support," Cordesman said in an e-mail. Read the article
April 21
Anthony Cordesman, the CSIS Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, was quoted by Reuters, "U.S. Risks Deepening Role in Iraqi Shi'ite Feud."
he Bush administration's support for the Iraqi government crackdown on Shi'ite militias risks drawing the United States into a dangerous confrontation between rival Shi'ite sects, analysts warn. Washington has billed the security operation launched last month by Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki as a defining battle for Iraq between the rule of law and Iranian-backed outlaw militias dubbed by U.S. officials as "special groups" that thrive as criminal syndicates. "The great uncertainty is just how much this Shi'ite power struggle is going to be violent and how much will end up with elements the U.S. can work with," said Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies.Read the article
April 12
Anthony Cordesman, the CSIS Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, was quoted by the USA Today, "Bush Embraces Halt in U.S. Troop Withdrawals."
President Bush's decision Thursday to give his top commander in Iraq "all the time he needs" before proposing any further troop reductions sets up a battle later this month over the next $108 billion funding request and another this fall over the war's political fallout. In a 17-minute White House speech, Bush endorsed Gen. David Petraeus' recommendation to keep U.S. troop levels at about 140,000 after five brigades are withdrawn by this summer. [...] His emphasis on Iran recognizes that it is "a key argument politically now for staying the course in Iraq," said Anthony Cordesman, a Middle East expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "Iraq is a key buffer in containing Iran right now." Read the article
April 11
Anthony Cordesman, the CSIS Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, was quoted by United Press International, "Iraq Oil Circus Came to Town."
This week the circus came to town. Not Ringling Bros. and Barnum & Bailey, but Gen. David Petraeus and Ambassador Ryan Crocker, and with it the three rings of a five-plus year war and occupation, politicians in their populist best pitches and the media echo of what's going on with Iraq's oil revenue. [ . . .] Anthony Cordesman, Iraq expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, points to a Special Inspector General for Iraq Reconstruction report published in January that between 2003 and 2008, $50.6 billion of Iraq's money was spent on reconstruction, $47.5 billion was spent in U.S. funds and nearly $16 billion in other donations. Read More
April 8
Anthony Cordesman, the CSIS Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, was quoted by the New York Times, "Attacks in Baghdad Spiked in March, US Data Show."
BAGHDAD — After an overall decline in attacks against civilians and American and Iraqi security forces in Baghdad over the past several months, the number more than doubled in March from the previous month, according to statistics compiled by the American military in Baghdad. “Much will depend on Sadr and whether his growing attacks on the U.S. for supporting Maliki have pushed him toward open confrontation with the U.S.,” said Anthony H. Cordesman, a military specialist at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. “What is clear,” he said, “is that the intra-Shiite power struggle has only begun, will be violent to some degree, and is likely to intensify through the fall 2008 local-provincial elections, the 2009 national elections and beyond.” Read more
April 8
Anthony Cordesman, the CSIS Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, was quoted by the Associated Press, "Iraq War's Leaders Still Cautious."
Nearing what are likely to be his last big decisions on U.S. troops and strategy in Iraq, President Bush seems to have fewer choices than when his war council last came to town. [. . .] "If there is any clear message that emerges out of the events of the last few weeks, it is that the risks in Iraq remain high enough so that no one can yet say whether the odds of any kind of U.S. success are better than even," Anthony Cordesman, a security analyst for the Center for Strategic and International Studies, wrote Monday. "The fact remains, however, that there is still a marginally better case for staying than for leaving." Read More
April 8
A CSIS Statesmen’s Forum with H.E. Samir Sumadaida’ie, Iraqi Ambassador to the United States, and Anthony Cordesman were quoted by Bloomberg, "Petraeus Says Iraq Too 'Fragile' for Removing Troops."
Army General David Petraeus told lawmakers today that progress in Iraq is too "fragile and reversible" to allow U.S. troop levels to fall below about 140,000 earlier than September. Petraeus, testifying before the Senate Armed Services Committee in Washington, recommended a 45-day evaluation after the final brigade from last year's "surge" of troop reinforcements into Iraq is withdrawn in July. Only after that period can officials begin to consider further withdrawals, he said. [...] Iraq's ambassador to the U.S., Samir Sumaida'ie, said any candidate talking about troop withdrawal will be faced, as president, with the reality that seeing the mission through is in the interests not only of Baghdad but also of Washington. "This is a long recovery from what was a terminal illness," Sumaida'ie said today at a forum in Washington organized by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Consequences of Invasion Anthony Cordesman, an analyst at the Washington-based center, said the U.S. has a moral and ethical responsibility for the consequences of its invasion. About 10 percent of the country's population has come to adulthood in the past five years, and half a generation of Iraqis live with a lack of security and an unemployment or underemployment rate of 50 percent, he said at the forum. "Regardless of the reasons we went to war or what we may individually think of the war, we cannot afford to ignore the fact that our actions have impacted on an entire nation," Cordesman said.
April 7
Anthony Cordesman, the CSIS Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, was quoted by Bloomberg, "Petraeus Set to Defend Iraq Plan as Democrats Sharpen Attack."
Last September, U.S. Army General David Petraeus assured Congress that Iraqis would be able to end the bloody rivalry between Shiite groups in the oil-rich south by themselves. Late last month, the U.S. carried out air strikes to help struggling Iraqi troops fighting a Shiite militia for control of the southern city of Basra. Keane and Anthony Cordesman of the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies argue that the instability in the Iraqi south shows the wisdom of Petraeus's call for a freeze on further U.S. troop withdrawals after the last surge brigade comes home. Read the article
Anthony Cordesman, the CSIS Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, was quoted by United Press International, "Thompson Files: Dumb Defense Decisions."
U.S. military expert Anthony Cordesman claims the Bush administration has fielded "the worst wartime national security team in United States history." That's pretty harsh. Presidents Lyndon Baines Johnson and Richard Nixon managed to squander more than 10 times as many American lives on a much less important piece of real estate while destroying much of Indochina in the bargain. In the end America simply gave up, delivering millions of innocent lives into the hands of murderous dictators like Pol Pot. Nothing like that is likely to happen while Bush and Vice President Dick Cheney are in charge. Read the article
March 30
Anthony Cordesman, the CSIS Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, had an op-ed published in the New York Times, "A Civil War Iraq Can't Win."
EVEN if American and Iraqi forces are able to eliminate Al Qaeda in Iraq, there are still three worrisome possibilities of new forms of fighting that could divide Iraq and deny the United States any form of “victory.” One is that the Sunni tribes and militias that have been cooperating with the Americans could turn against the central government. The second is that the struggle among Arabs, Kurds, Turkmen and other ethnic groups to control territory in the north could lead to fighting in Kirkuk, Mosul or other areas. Read the Op-ed
March 28
Anthony Cordesman, the CSIS Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, was quoted by U.S. News and World Report, "Clinton and Obama Can't Count on Iraq to Win the White House."
It was not all that long ago when it looked as if Iraq was going to dominate the 2008 presidential campaign, a situation that seemed to make just about any Democratic nominee a shoo-in. In early 2007, President Bush was pouring more troops into Iraq even as dozens of corpses were turning up on Iraqi streets each morning. The U.S. death toll was mounting fast. And both Sens. Hillary Clinton and Barack Obama declared that the United States should not "baby-sit a civil war." [...] Still, from here on out, the candidates will all be hostage to the news from Iraq. Violent street battles in Basra in late March, for example, sparked fears that a tenuous cease-fire with radical cleric Moqtada al-Sadr could unravel, which might make Iraq more of a factor in the election. The death toll for U.S. soldiers also hit 4,000, although the death rate is down from last year. Barring a resurgence in violence, the political battle will largely be one of perception—of whether or not Iraqis are making real progress toward stability. "There is always the possibility of reversals," says Anthony Cordesman, an Iraq analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "If that happens, the dynamics in the election could change quite rapidly." The key factor is where independent voters stand. Pew found that almost half of them now favor keeping U.S. troops in Iraq, versus a rapid withdrawal.Read the article
March 27
Anthony Cordesman, the CSIS Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, was quoted by Bloomberg, "Iraq Gives Ultimatum to Shiite Militia Group."
BAGHDAD — Iraqi Prime Minister Nuri al-Maliki ordered the Mehdi Army yesterday to lay down its arms within 72 hours as a second day of fighting in Iraq’s main centres claimed more than 60 lives. "The current fighting is as much a power struggle for control of the south and the Shiite parts of Baghdad" as an attempt to establish government authority, said Anthony Cordesman, a security analyst at the US-based Centre for Strategic and International Studies.Read the article
March 27
Anthony Cordesman, the CSIS Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, was cited by Slate.com, "Warlord Vs. Warlord."
The wars in Iraq (the plural is no typo) are about to expand and possibly explode, so it might be useful to have some notion of what we're in for. Here is President George W. Bush, speaking this morning in Dayton, Ohio, and revealing once again that he has no notion: [A]s we speak, Iraqi security forces are waging a tough battle against militia fighters and criminals in Basra—many of whom have received arms and training and funding from Iran. … This offensive builds on the security gains of the surge and demonstrates to the Iraqi people that their government is committed to protecting them. … [T]he enemy will try to fill the TV screens with violence. But the ultimate result will be this: Terrorists and extremists in Iraq will know they have no place in a free and democratic society. The reality, alas, is less stark. The fighting in Basra, which has spread to parts of Baghdad, is not a clash between good and evil or between a legitimate government and an outlaw insurgency. Rather, as Anthony Cordesman, military analyst for the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, writes, it is "a power struggle" between rival "Shiite party mafias" for control of the oil-rich south and other Shiite sections of the country.Read the article
March 26
Anthony Cordesman, the CSIS Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, was quoted by the Associated Press, "Militiamen Holding Out in Basra Fighting."
BAGHDAD -- Iraq's prime minister warned gunmen in the oil port of Basra to surrender their weapons by Friday or face harsher measures, as clashes between security forces and Shiite militia fighters spread throughout the south and in Baghdad. Anthony Cordesman, an analyst at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, cautioned against dismissing those concerns. "The current fighting is as much a power struggle for control of the south, and the Shiite parts of Baghdad and the rest of the country, as an effort to establish central government authority and legitimate rule," he said in an analysis. Read the article
March 24
Anthony Cordesman, the CSIS Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, was quoted by Reuters, "Four U.S. Soldiers Killed in Iraq, Death Toll 4,000."
The number of U.S. soldiers to die in Iraq has reached 4,000, the U.S. military said on Monday, just days after the fifth anniversary of a war that President George W. Bush says the United States is on track to win. The U.S. military said in a statement four soldiers were killed late on Sunday when a roadside bomb, the biggest killer of American soldiers in Iraq, exploded near their vehicle in southern Baghdad. One soldier was wounded in the attack. Anthony Cordesman, a respected Iraq analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said the 4,000 death could trigger another wave of polarised debate. "Those who oppose the war will see it as further reason to end it. Those who support it, will point to military progress and say that future casualties will be much lower," he said. Read the article
Anthony Cordesman, the CSIS Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, was quoted by the Wall Street Journal, "Weighing the Benchmarks as Iraq Death Toll Mounts."
A roadside bombing that claimed the lives of four U.S. soldiers and pushed the American death toll in Iraq to the 4,000 mark underscores how fragile the situation remains even as the government weighs bringing home some of the reinforcements that were deployed in the surge. Along with the roadside bombing, the U.S.-protected Green Zone came under fire yesterday as insurgents fired rockets and mortars into the area on a day when at least ... Read More (requires subscription)
March 24
Anthony Cordesman, the CSIS Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, was quoted by Time Magazine, "The Threat of a Re-Surge in Iraq."
The conveniently quiet arrangement between Sadr and the U.S. is now being challenged from within and from without. "There are all kinds of groups who would be interested in dragging [Sadr] into positions and into conflicts that he doesn't want to be in," said Anthony Cordesman, a top Iraq analyst for the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington. Cordesman warns against jumping to conclusions that the south is rising up. He says it's more likely that the recent violence is a sign that the many Shi'ite factions that have broken from Sadr's movement are seeking to prove their mettle, and that al-Qaeda cells are seeking new ways to strike as they are forced out of more and more areas by U.S. and Iraqi forces. Cordesman echoes Army Lt. Gen Ray Odierno, who, after leading U.S. forces in Iraq for the past 15 months, recently reported that Sadr seemed to be softening and his movement becoming more of a faith-based political movement than a militia waiting to kill Americans or take power by force. That said, Odierno expressed concern over the growing Shi'ite rivalries. "I worry about intra-Shi'a violence a bit," he said upon returning to the Pentagon earlier this month. "That could, you know, spiral out of control."Read the article
March 21
Anthony Cordesman, the CSIS Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, was quoted by United Press International, "Gates Hints at April Iraq Assessment."
U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates and other top officials met the U.S. commander in Iraq to discuss the April progress report on troop levels in Iraq. Gates and his advisers said they will prepare a separate progress report on Iraq as an addendum to the report Army Gen. David Petraeus and U.S. Ambassador to Iraq Ryan Crocker will deliver to the president in April, Voice of America said. Anthony Cordesman with the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington said the U.S. commitment in Iraq is long term, but suggested the number of U.S. troops deployed there may draw down as the mission moves from "fighting a counterinsurgency to a strategic overwatch." Read the article
March 18
Anthony Cordesman, the CSIS Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, was quoted by the Christian Science Monitor, "How Will the Iraq War End?"
On the fifth anniversary of the Iraq war, progress is slow but violence is down. A three-part series on the war's effects starts today with a look at what the endgame might look like. [...] "People aren't going to be reconciled, there has been too much violence.... the question is can they work out a new set of arrangements," said Anthony Cordesman, a military expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, in a February briefing.Read the article
March 16
Anthony Cordesman, the CSIS Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, was quoted by the Washington Post, "A Crude Case for War?"
It's hard to miss the point of the "Blood for Oil" Web site. It features one poster of an American flag with "Blood for oil?" in white block letters where the stars should be and two dripping red handprints across the stripes. Another shows a photo of President Bush with a thin black line on his upper lip. "Got oil?" the headline asks wryly. Five years after the United States invaded Iraq, plenty of people believe that the war was waged chiefly to secure U.S. petroleum supplies and to make Iraq safe — and lucrative — for the U.S. oil industry. "If we went to war for oil, we did it as clumsily as anyone could do. And we spent more on the war than we could ever conceivably have gotten out of Iraq's oil fields even if we had particular control over them," says Anthony Cordesman, an expert on U.S. strategy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies who rejects the idea that the war was designed on behalf of oil companies.Read the article
March 16
Anthony Cordesman, the CSIS Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, had an op-ed published in the New York Times, "Worse Than Lyndon Johnson’s Team?"
IN fairness to the Bush administration, I did not expect that we would discover no meaningful activity in rebuilding Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction and no Iraqi ties to Al Qaeda. I also never predicted, after the insurgency began, that the extremists in Al Qaeda in Mesopotamia would so alienate Sunnis and tribes in western Iraq that a combination of the “surge, win and hold” military tactics, American-led nation-building efforts that focused on local and provincial needs, and the cease-fire declared by Moktada al-Sadr could create today’s new opportunity for “victory.” In balance, however, the most serious surprise was that what appeared to be the American A-Team in national security ignored years of planning and months of interagency activity before the war, and the United States had no meaningful plan for stability operations and nation building after the defeat of Saddam Hussein’s armed forces. Relying on sectarian exiles with strong ties to Iran, disbanding the security forces and starting the process of de-Baathification were all obvious disasters, as were the creation of closed-list national elections and the failure to quickly hold local and provincial elections. It was even more of a surprise to watch the Bush administration fail, from 2003 to 2006, to come to grips with creating effective counterinsurgency programs, focused aid and development efforts, political accommodation and effective Iraqi forces. As a Republican, I would never have believed that President Bush, Vice President Dick Cheney and Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld would waste so many opportunities and so much of America’s reputation that they would rival Lyndon Johnson, Robert McNamara and McGeorge Bundy for the worst wartime national security team in United States history.Read the article
March 16
Anthony Cordesman, the CSIS Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, was quoted by the New York Post, "Fight for Iraq: 5 Years & Counting."
Five years of war have left the U.S. with the grim and costly prospect of another five or even 10 years of nation-building in Iraq - barring a major policy change. More than 1 million U.S. troops have passed through Iraq and nearly 4,000 have died there in what military analysts have described as a strategic circle game. Respected analyst Anthony Cordesman, of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said "the surge has done what it can do" and it will still take years to achieve "a reasonable degree of security."Read the article
March 14
Anthony Cordesman, the CSIS Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, was quoted by Gannett News Services, “After Five Years in Iraq, Bush Seeks Enduring Stability."
With U.S. forces trickling out of Iraq, the Bush administration is touting 2008 as a year of major transition and improvement. Just as it did 2003, '04, '05, '06 and '07. For all the cynicism about the war — now entering its sixth year — it has undeniably turned a corner. Violence is down, and political reconciliation among the Iraqis is advancing, albeit haltingly. "Can you get the Iraqi forces to really take over?" said Anthony Cordesman, a military expert from the Center for Strategic and International Studies, just back from Iraq. "Can you find ways to move money and services in for governance and development?"Read the article
March 14
Anthony Cordesman, the CSIS Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, was quoted for a McClatchy Newspapers Column, "How Iraq War Reality Will Complicate Plans of Bush’s Successor."
Five years after President Bush launched the war in Iraq, the three major candidates seeking to replace him have proposed distinctly different visions of the future of the conflict. But the complex realities of the costly and complex war and the strategic importance of the region will pose problems to all three visions, analysts say. "You can say anything you want during the campaign right now," said former Pentagon official Anthony Cordesman, a defense analyst with the Center for Strategic and International Studies, a Washington think tank. "The real world here doesn't have all that much to do with political campaigns or anniversaries. It has to do with the facts on the ground when the president takes office."Read the article
Anthony Cordesman, the CSIS Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, was quoted by the Los Angeles Times, "Turkish Planes Bomb Northern Iraq, Kurds Say."
In a report for the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies, military expert Anthony Cordesman said Turkey may have inflicted enough casualties during its recent ground assault in the mountainous north to affect the PKK's ability to attack when the snow melts this spring. But, he said, "it is remarkably difficult to attack any guerrilla network to the point that it cannot still carry out large-scale, showpiece acts of terrorism."Cordesman suggested that motives for the incursion may have been more strategic than tactical. Among other things, Turkey has signaled to the U.S. and Iraqi Kurds that it will not sit passively while nothing is done about the PKK threat against Turkish forces and civilians.Read the article
February 28
Anthony Cordesman, the CSIS Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, was quoted by McClatchy News Services, "Iraqi Leaders Veto Bill Touted as Political Benchmark."
Iraq's three-man presidency council on Wednesday announced its veto of legislation whose passage in parliament U.S. officials had hailed two weeks ago as a key benchmark. Also Wednesday, U.S. Secretary of Defense Robert Gates said he hoped that Turkey's incursion into northern Iraq to fight Kurdish rebels would last a "week or two" but "not months." Turkish news agencies reported that up to 77 guerrillas were killed the night before in the most violent night of the week-old incursion on Iraq's northern border. A rebel spokesman said fighters for the Kurdish Workers Party, known as the PKK, had killed 18 Turkish soldiers. [...] Anthony Cordesman, a Middle East expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C., said the law is badly needed to define the role of provinces and the central government and set ground rules for any future discussion on federation. "The key issue is whether the presidency council sent the law back for the right reasons and if parliament will improve the law rather than oppose further delays," he said. Read the article
February 27
Anthony Cordesman, the Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, was quoted in a Washington Times editorial, "Clinging to Defeatism."
Senate Democrats yesterday provided yet another sorry illustration of the fact that they are thoroughly invested in the defeat of U.S. military forces in Iraq. This happened despite the growing evidence that the troop surge is damaging al Qaeda, and that the Iraqis are making remarkable progress on the political front as well. . . . Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies, who until a few months ago had been a ferocious critic of the Iraq war, recently returned with a very different perspective. He now thinks that the war is winnable. But a "serious [U.S.] military and advisory presence will probably be needed" until at least 2012, he says, while "rushed reductions in forces or providing inadequate forces will lead to a collapse at the military level." Senate Democrats insist on clinging to defeatist talking points when they should be rethinking their own strategy amid the cold and hard facts. Read More
Anthony Cordesman, the CSIS Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, was quoted by the Reuters, "Qaeda Influence Grows on Afghan/Pakistani Border."
Al Qaeda appears to be increasing its influence among Islamist militant groups along Afghanistan's border with Pakistan, with offers of money, training and other assistance, U.S. experts say. Osama bin Laden's group, which has been rebuilding in safe havens in Pakistan for over a year, has taken a prominent role in a new effort by Taliban and other radical organizations to coordinate their operations in Afghanistan and Pakistan. [...] "It really always has been. The fact is that we drove the Taliban into Pakistan, along with the other Islamist elements (after the 2001 invasion)," said Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic & International Studies. Read the article
February 25
Anthony Cordesman, the CSIS Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, was quoted by the Christian Science Monitor, "Election ’08: For Candidates, Iraq Debate Shifts."
While it may have been eclipsed by the economy, Iraq is almost certain to remain a top issue in the presidential campaign – though perhaps in a different way than anticipated just a few months ago. Until recently, the debate over Iraq was framed in simple terms: withdraw or not? Democrats were essentially on one side, and the Republicans on the other. [...] "There is no one who is planning today to have either [the war in Iraq or the war in Afghanistan] won before the end of the next presidency," says Anthony Cordesman, a national-security expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington. Read the article
February 25
Anthony Cordesman, the CSIS Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, was quoted by the National Journal, "A Dime's Worth of Difference?"
In practice, accomplishing the candidates' more limited goals in Iraq would still mean leaving anywhere from 10,000 to 75,000 troops in Iraq, or more. It currently takes more than 100,000 military personnel, and an equal number of contractors, to fulfill those same three missions in Iraq, according to a rough count by Anthony Cordesman, the Arleigh A. Burke Chair in strategy at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Both candidates have indicated they would like to reduce America's footprint in the country and use air and special operations teams to carry out strikes on Al Qaeda in Iraq, but Cordesman says that that notion is virtually meaningless until the Iraqi army and security forces are ready to stand on their own. "We'd kill some cadres but have little or no overall impact, and we'd lose almost all of our [human intelligence] once we withdrew," he said.Read the article
February 24
Anthony Cordesman, the CSIS Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, had an op-ed published in the Washington Post, "Two Winnable Wars."
No one can return from the battlefields in Iraq and Afghanistan, as I recently did, without believing that these are wars that can still be won. They are also clearly wars that can still be lost, but visits to the battlefield show that these conflicts are very different from the wars being described in American political campaigns and most of the debates outside the United States. These conflicts involve far more than combat between the United States and its allies against insurgent movements such as al-Qaeda in Iraq and the Taliban. Meaningful victory can come only if tactical military victories end in ideological and political victories and in successful governance and development. Dollars are as important as bullets, and so are political accommodation, effective government services and clear demonstrations that there is a future that does not need to be built on Islamist extremism.Read the article
February 22
Anthony Cordesman, the CSIS Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, was quoted by CNN.com, "Some Progress in Iraq's Powder Keg a Year After 'Surge.'"
A year after President Bush ordered nearly 30,000 additional U.S. troops into Iraq, American and Iraqi officials said there has been a drop in violence and some baby steps toward political reconciliation, but they see no cause for celebration. . . . A research paper issued last week by Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies summed up the state of affairs in Iraq. "No one can spend some 10 days visiting the battlefields in Iraq without seeing major progress in every area," the report said. "If the U.S. provides sustained support to the Iraqi government -- in security, governance, and development -- there is now a very real chance that Iraq will emerge as a secure and stable state. Read More
February 18
Anthony Cordesman, the CSIS Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, was quoted by Reuters, "Iraq Laws are Progress, but Not Enough."
Iraq's leaders surprised even their many critics by passing three laws last week that marked an important step toward national reconciliation. . . . Anthony Cordesman, an Iraq expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said making more progress depended on Iraqis reaching an enduring political accommodation and holding elections that had true legitimacy. Read More
February 12
Anthony Cordesman, the CSIS Arleigh A. Burke Chair in strategy, was quoted in David Brooks’ column in the New York Times, "When Reality Bites."
There’s a big difference between the Republican and Democratic campaigns: The Republicans have split on policy grounds; the Democrats haven’t. There’s been a Republican divide between center and right, yet no Democratic divide between center and left. But when you think about it, the Democratic policy unity is a mirage. If the Democrats actually win the White House, the tensions would resurface with a vengeance. [...] There would be important criticism from nonpartisan military experts. In his latest report, the much-cited Anthony Cordesman describes an improving Iraqi security situation that still requires “strategic patience” and another five years to become self-sustaining. Read the article
January 31
Anthony Cordesman, the CSIS Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, was quoted by the Christian Science Monitor, "New Bid to Control Pakistan's Tribal Belt."
After years of Pakistani indecision and US deference, the fight against Pakistan's terrorists, it appears, is now entering a new stage. Since 9/11, Pakistan has been slow to react to the increasing influence of militants in its remote tribal areas bordering Afghanistan, and the US has been loath to interfere, at least openly. With plans to send 3,200 more troops to Afghanistan in the spring, the US is adding strength to the Afghan side. America's overtures to Pakistan represent an effort to "find ways to strengthen the Pakistan Army," says Anthony Cordesman, a security analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington.Read the article
January 24
Anthony Cordesman, the CSIS Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, was quoted in a commentary in the Chicago Tribune, "Surging Along to a Stalemate."
When it comes to the Bush administration's strategy in Iraq, the Republican presidential candidates all seem to be auditioning for the lead in a remake of "Pollyanna." In their eyes, it has been the greatest triumph since the liberation of Paris. . . The more sober supporters of the war recognize we have far to go. "Very real progress is anything but stable victory, even in the area where the U.S. and Iraqi surge has been most effective," writes Anthony Cordesman of the Center for Strategic and International Studies. The surge, he says, "has not brought lasting stability and security" even to Baghdad. Read More
January 21
Anthony Cordesman, the CSIS Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, was quoted by the New York Times, "Pentagon Weighs Top Iraq General as NATO Chief."
The Pentagon is considering Gen. David H. Petraeus for the top NATO command later this year, a move that would give the general, the top American commander in Iraq, a high-level post during the next administration but that has raised concerns about the practice of rotating war commanders. A senior Pentagon official said that it was weighing “a next assignment for Petraeus” and that the NATO post was a possibility. “He deserves one and that has also always been a highly prestigious position,” the official said. “So he is a candidate for that job, but there have been no final decisions and nothing on the timing.” [...] General Petraeus “should stay at least through this year,” said Anthony Cordesman, a military specialist at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. “We really need military continuity in command during this period in which we can find out whether we can transition from tactical victory to some form of political accommodation. Read the article
January 21
Anthony Cordesman, the CSIS Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, was quoted by the Washington Post, "A New Arms Race in the Gulf?"
The Joint Direct Attack Munition is a kit that, when added to the back end of a 500- or 2,000-pound "dumb" bomb, turns it into a lethal, all-weather "smart" weapon. The bomb can hit within four feet of a target when launched from a fighter aircraft more than 10 miles away. The kits and bombs are a prominent part of the $20 billion U.S. arms package for Persian Gulf states that has been in the works since last summer.President Bush discussed the package with Arab leaders during his recent trip to the Gulf. Is the United States starting a new arms race? Reviewing the Gulf package, Anthony H. Cordesman, a specialist in >Middle East national security affairs at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said a surge of arms sales to countries in the region is just beginning. Read the article
January 17
Anthony Cordesman, the CSIS Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, was quoted by the USA Today, "Mideast Skepticism Lingers as Bush Ends Tour of Region."
President Bush concluded eight days of fast-paced Middle East diplomacy Wednesday with a vow to return and "stay engaged." Judging from much of the reaction to his trip, he'll have to. The president's tour of Israel and the West Bank, Kuwait, Bahrain, the United Arab Emirates, Saudi Arabia and Egypt shined a light on long-standing differences in one of the world's most volatile areas. [...] Several analysts gave Bush credit for taking on tough issues. Anthony Cordesman, a Middle East expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the visit "showed how important the U.S. feels the region is in an area where personal contact at the highest levels is absolutely critical to good relations." While there were no major new achievements, he said, "it did lay positive groundwork for further peace negotiations and for the next administration." Read the article
January 16
Jon Alterman, director of the CSIS Middle East Program, and Anthony Cordesman, the CSIS Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, were quoted by the Washington Times, "We Are Coming Home."
[...]Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, said the "most interesting part of the trip was the down time he scheduled with regional leaders." "Relaxing at home, he's in constant motion as he clears brush and rides mountain bikes, but in the Gulf he settled into leisurely meals and falcon hunting as he sought to build relationships with rulers. His past inclination was to refer to them as "tyrants," but now he referred to them as "leaders," Mr. Alterman said.[...] Mr. Alterman's CSIS colleague, Anthony Cordesman, said that while few believe that an Israeli-Palestinian peace is possible in 2008, the president took on the issue that does most to build Arab anger at the U.S., showed the U.S. would reach out to the Palestinians, and established a legacy for continuing negotiations by the next administration." "He also showed how important the U.S. feels the region is in an area where personal contact at the highest levels is absolutely critical to good relations. He did not abandon 'democratization,' because he did focus focusing on good security and economic relations and made it clear that 'democratization' did not mean 'regime change,'" Mr. Cordesman said.Read the article
January 14
Anthony Cordesman, the CSIS Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, was quoted by the Los Angeles Times, "Bush Visits Ally Saudi Arabia."
President Bush today began one of the most diplomatically challenging stops of his six-nation passage across the Middle East, arriving here just hours ahead of an expected formal announcement of a major arms sale to this desert kingdom. Bush is seeking to use Saudi Arabia both as a heavyweight balance to neighboring Iran and to encourage the Saudis to support peace talks between the Israelis and Palestinians. [...] "It has run into serious problems with the Congress," said Anthony Cordesman, a Middle East and arms expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, who noted that the threat posed by Iran was the reason for the deals — although it was not the stated reason for it. Read the article
January 8
Jon Alterman, director of the CSIS Middle East Program, and Anthony Cordesman, the Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, appeared on National Public Radio's Morning Edition, "President Bush Begins Mideast Trip."
President Bush sets off Tuesday on an eight-day swing through the Middle East. He's going to visit key Gulf allies to talk about what he sees as a rising Iranian threat, despite a recent intelligence report that says Iran halted a nuclear weapons program. The president is also going to try to nudge Israelis and Palestinians toward peace. [...] "A friend who used to work in the White House told me this president doesn't like to tee things up; he's a closer. He likes to close deals. And this deal is not ready to be closed," Alterman says. [...] "People are going to be polite. They will be accommodating in some ways, but they are well aware that this is not only an election year. It is an election year from an administration that really has no heir that can really speak for the future or run for the future," Cordesman says.Read the article and listen to the interview
Jon Alterman, director of the CSIS Middle East Program, and Anthony Cordesman, the CSIS Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, were quoted by the Chicago Tribune, "Doubt as Bush set to visit Mideast."
WASHINGTON - With an eight-day tour of the Middle East starting this week, President Bush hopes to spur negotiations among Israeli and Palestinian leaders vowing to make peace and lay the groundwork for two independent states by year's end.Jon Alterman, director of the Middle East Program at the Center for International and Strategic Studies, contends that Bush is not inclined to engage in the level of detail required. "This president doesn't like to tee things up. He's a closer. He likes to close deals," Alterman said. "And this deal is not ready to be closed. It requires a lot of setting up and a lot of tedious work, exactly the kind of work this president thinks isn't his job and doesn't particularly enjoy.""It's just a simple fact of life," said Anthony Cordesman, senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "You can't, as president, leave a legacy in the form of an agenda for the next president. The only legacy you can leave is what you actually accomplished while you were in office. And at this point in time, with effectively a year to go, your legacy is what you've done, not what you would like to do."Read the article
January 7
Anthony Cordesman, the CSIS Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, was quoted by the Washington Times, "Iran Hits Bush Trip as Unwelcome."
President Bush will be following in some unlikely footsteps on his eight-day, seven-stop Mideast tour that starts tomorrow. Iran's firebrand president, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, and other top officials of the Islamic republic have paid visits to a number of leading Arab states in recent weeks, including Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Qatar. [...] "There is great uncertainty as to what the [U.S. intelligence estimate] was, with one conspiracy theory after another about it" in the region, said Anthony H. Cordesman, a national security analyst with the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS). "And the president is certainly going to be asked about that." Read the article
January 7
Anthony Cordesman, the CSIS Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, and Jon Alterman, director of the CSIS Middle East Program, were quoted by the Washington Times, "Bush Bound for Mideast."
President Bush will cover thousands of miles but find it hard to break any new ground as he embarks tomorrow on the longest Middle East tour of his presidency. While Mr. Bush and his advisers once talked of the "birth pangs" of a new, democratic, pro-Western Middle East in the heady days after the 2003 ouster of Iraq's Saddam Hussein and Lebanon's 2005 "Cedar Revolution," the White House is determinedly talking down expectations for the trip. But Anthony Cordesman, a senior fellow at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), said most Middle East leaders see the terrorism problem much differently. "Their attitude is, this is a religious issue, it is an ideological issue. It is a matter of dealing with their own young men and finding ways to bring them back into society. It is not a focus on Iraq," he said. While such a trip would be a high-risk security move, Jon B. Alterman, director of the Middle East Program at CSIS, said it was "hard to imagine that the president will be so close and not seek to do something that will strengthen the hand of Prime Minister Siniora and his allies."Read the article
January 7
Anthony Cordesman, the CSIS Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, was quoted by the Christian Science Monitor, "U.S.-Iran naval confrontation in Gulf raises tensions."
The US and its allies have long been concerned that Iran could block the passageway, crippling US oil shipments out of the Gulf, according to Anthony Cordesman, a security expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. "While the threat from Iran's conventional military may be real, the more dangerous threat is that of extremist groups' asymmetric attacks on oil facilities," he wrote in a 2006 report. "There is no attack-proof security system. It may take only one asymmetric or conventional attack on ... tankers in the Strait of Hormuz to throw the market into a spiral."Read the article
Anthony Cordesman, the CSIS Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, and Robert Ebel, a senior advisor with the CSIS Energy Program, were quoted by Reuters, "Energy Crisis? Not on U.S. Campaign Trail."
It has been called the 800-pound gorilla but it's getting scant attention in the U.S. election. And yet it could well be one of the most pressing issues facing the next winner of the Oval Office. Energy security, or the nation's ability to procure oil whenever needed, looms large for the current and future U.S. president after oil hit $100 a barrel this week and put markets on a razor's edge between supply and demand. [...] "Everyone's making the usual comments but none of the candidates has offered any practical details," said Anthony Cordesman, energy expert at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, who gives all the candidates poor grades on energy issues. [...] Robert Ebel, senior adviser at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, does not think it will be a major issue for Americans when they head for the voting booths. "It's important, but I wouldn't put it at the top of the list," he said, adding Americans care more about education, health care, or the price of goods.Read the article
January 3
Jon Alterman, director of the CSIS Middle East Program, and Anthony Cordesman, the CSIS Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy, were quoted by the Associated Press, "White House Downplays Bush Mideast Trip."
President Bush's aides all but ruled out a three-way meeting with Israeli and Palestinian leaders during his upcoming Mideast visit and dampened hopes that the president's high-profile travels would make tangible progress toward peace. "Just his going there is going to advance the prospects," Stephen Hadley, Bush's national security adviser, said Thursday. "We're not looking for headline announcements." Bush departs Tuesday on an eight-day trip that will take him to at least six Mideast nations and the Palestinian territories _ his first visit as president to each locale on his itinerary except Egypt. It comes as Bush stages his most aggressive personal involvement to date in the tricky, violent and intractable Israeli-Palestinian dispute. [...] "People are going to be polite. They will be accommodating in some ways. But they are well aware that this is not only an election year, it is an election year from an administration that really has no heir that can really speak for the future or run for the future," said Anthony Cordesman, an analyst at the Washington-based Center for Strategic and International Studies. [...] "There will be small successes along the way," Alterman said. "But all of the Middle East's problems are far too immense, complex and diverse to be solved on this trip." Read the article
January 1
Kathleen Hicks, a senior fellow with the CSIS International Security Program, and Anthony Cordesman, the CSIS Arleigh Burke Chair in Strategy, were quoted by Government Executive, "Girding for Battle."
Six years into the longest period of sustained combat since Vietnam, the U.S. military is suffering from strategic drift, uncertain about which of many potential security threats should determine the future size and composition of the armed forces. The military services already are building their analytic capabilities for the looming budget battle many expect to coincide with the next Quadrennial Defense Review. The congressionally mandated QDR occurs every four years and is designed to align national security strategy to resources and force levels to address future threats. The next QDR, due in early 2010, will coincide with a new presidential administration and new management team at the Pentagon. That group will have almost a year to shape the final draft of the review. This QDR - the fourth since Congress mandated the reviews in 1997 - must issue specific guidance and make tough decisions regarding Defense budgeting and force levels. The Defense Department's base budget, not counting emergency supplemental appropriations for Iraq and Afghanistan, is approaching $500 billion. Planned investment in new weapons systems has doubled from $750 billion in 2001 to almost $1.5 trillion in 2007.Read the article
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