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Home page  About CSIS Programs New European Democracies Project Montenegro's Independence Helps Stabilize the Balkans
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Montenegro's Independence Helps Stabilize the Balkans
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By Janusz Bugajski, Director, New European Democracies Project 
May 22, 2006
After a century of failed unions with its larger neighbors, the republic of Montenegro is finally restoring its independence. The national referendum passed the 55 percent threshold required by European Union (EU) representatives for the country to be internationally recognized. The re-emergence of this compact and multi-ethnic state will have positive reverberations throughout the West Balkans and will place even more urgency on resolving the final piece of the post-Yugoslav puzzle – the UN-administered territory of Kosovo.
Paradoxically, Montenegro is both the newest and the longest existing state in the Balkans, maintaining its sovereignty during centuries of Ottoman occupation of South Eastern Europe. The country was absorbed by a Serbian-dominated Yugoslavia after World War I, its sovereign institutions were abolished, and its distinctive national identity went unrecognized by Belgrade.
Montenegro de facto broke with Slobodan Milosevic’s Serbia in the late 1990s and established the infrastructure of statehood with separate administrative institutions and a pronounced pro-Western stance. However, three years ago the republic was pushed into a “joint state” with Serbia by EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana in the forlorn hope of pacifying Belgrade and ensuring its cooperation with Brussels.
The EU maneuver simply heightened conflicts between the two republics and retarded economic development. It demonstrated that Montenegro needed to avoid dysfunctional political experiments as full statehood remains the key prerequisite for national development. Only sovereign states rather than artificial federations or international dependencies can attract foreign investment and enter the most important international institutions.
A clean political break will enable both Montenegro and Serbia to focus on their crucial domestic reforms and the arduous process of EU integration. Montenegro will no longer be held hostage by developments inside Serbia or by Belgrade’s self-isolation due to its inability to arrest the indicted war criminal General Ratko Mladic. It can now redouble its commitment to structural reform and will be judged on its own performance.
Later this year, the Albanian majority province of Kosovo will also be moving toward final status. Washington and most EU capitals have realized that independence is the only rational course for Kosovo if further instability is to be avoided. Serbia itself will benefit by freeing itself from the burden of Kosovo and the distraction of Montenegro, as both issues have diverted attention from the necessity of reforming Serbia’s administrative and security institutions.
Independence for Montenegro, Serbia, and Kosovo will create the underpinnings of credible states that are domestically legitimate and internationally recognized. This will also change the nature of international involvement from that of peace-enforcement and state-building to economic investment and institutional integration.
The West Balkans form a significant market of some 25 million people if the region is interconnected by a modern infrastructure and a free trade agreement that the EU has been promoting. Economic growth and foreign investment is where attention should be focused over the coming years once the remaining status issue is resolved. In this context, Montenegro can play a significant role as an eastern Adriatic hub for regional projects in energy, transportation, infrastructure, tourism, and various associated service industries.
The government in Podgorica has also emphasized intensifying cooperation with all of its neighbors in furthering regional security. The final dissolution of post-Yugoslavia will help terminate the rationale for the large military and security apparatus that Serbia and Montenegro inherited from Milosevic. The creation of light modernized detachments that can respond to contemporary threats will help eliminate security fears throughout the region and direct attention toward economic development.
Both the U.S. and EU must focus their efforts on helping Montenegro consolidate its multi-ethnic society in which national or religious identity has not played a divisive or conflictive role. Indeed, Montenegro’s Albanian and Muslim communities voted together with Slavic Orthodox Montenegrins for an independent state. The sizeable Serbian minority, many of whom voted to preserve the union with Serbia, must also remain integrated in all state structures and benefit from independence. The government has already pledged that the free movement of people across the new international borders will be guaranteed.
Montenegro also needs to be plugged into a number of regional and trans-Atlantic security initiatives culminating in full membership in NATO and the EU. Montenegro’s restored international role will help the NATO allies in countering security threats along Europe’s expanding borders, including ethnic strife, political and religious terrorism, organized crime, and energy insecurity. Despite its small size, Montenegro can become a valuable U.S. ally by joining the other new democracies in Central and Easter Europe and playing a role in strengthening trans-Atlantic relations.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) is a private, tax-exempt institution focusing on international public policy issues. Its research is nonpartisan and nonproprietary. CSIS does not take specific policy positions; accordingly, all views, positions, and conclusions expressed in these publications should be understood to be solely those of the authors.
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