Q1: How is China’s view of and policy toward North Korea different from its views and policy before the October 2006 nuclear test?
A1: China still considers North Korea to be an important neighbor and wants to preserve its traditional friendship. Maintaining stability in North Korea, which shares a long border with China, remains Beijing’s top priority. China continues to provide a steady amount of aid, mostly fuel and food. However, the Chinese aspire to transform the relationship into one with more normal state-to-state interactions, rather than giving North Korea special treatment. This includes the objective of gradually reducing aid and replacing it with trade and investment. North Korea’s continued isolation and failure to implement economic reforms makes achieving this goal impossible in the near term, however.
The October 2006 test of a nuclear device by North Korea took China by surprise and was strongly opposed by Beijing. China viewed it as not only an act of defiance to the international community and a threat to regional stability, but specifically as an act of defiance toward China. In the aftermath of the test, China supported a UN Security Council resolution that condemned North Korea’s action and imposed limited sanctions. Chinese officials privately admitted that their toolbox for managing the North Korea nuclear weapons challenge has relied too much on carrots in the past and now needs to include a combination of pressure and inducement.
Q2: What are some of the issues being debated by those experts on North Korea who advise the Chinese government?
A2: There are intense debates among Chinese experts over several key issues: 1) whether North Korea will give up its nuclear weapons; 2) the strategic value of North Korea to China; 3) whether the Sino–North Korea treaty should be revised, abandoned, or retained and its ambiguity stressed to enhance deterrence; and 4) the likelihood of a rapid improvement in U.S.–North Korea relations, and how such a development would affect Chinese interests.
Q3: How does China assess the stability of the North Korean regime?
A3: Chinese experts on North Korea assert that the North Korean system remains stable, and they are confident that it will remain so for at least several years, absent the sudden death of Kim Jong-il or external interference aimed at destabilizing the regime. In the long run, however, sustainable development through economic reform remains an essential prerequisite for stability, and North Korea’s ability to move down that path is not yet assured.
Q4: Do the Chinese expect North Korea to implement economic reforms?
A4: Most Chinese experts and officials are disappointed that North Korea has not moved more rapidly to implement economic reform. They had hoped that following Kim Jong-il’s January 2006 visit to southern China he would accelerate the pace of reform, but their hopes were unfulfilled. Nevertheless, Chinese analysts are encouraged that North Korea has haltingly adopted some agricultural and market reforms and allowed greater autonomy to individual factories and enterprises. The Chinese anticipate that reforms will continue as long as they do not threaten central government control, albeit at a slow pace. Chinese experts maintain that the major obstacle to North Korea’s adoption of an economic reform policy is its adverse external environment, the most important element of which is a continued hostile relationship with the United States.
