Sri Lanka is back at war. The Sri Lankan government’s decision to pull out of the 2002 Ceasefire Agreement (CFA) with the Liberation Tigers of Tamil Eelam (LTTE) became effective January 16. Both the government and the LTTE are pursuing predominantly military strategies at a stepped-up pace. On the political side, the multiparty group charged with preparing peace proposals produced a cautious report that is unlikely to move matters forward, and there are no serious negotiating initiatives. Despite some military success, the government’s chances of victory are highly uncertain and, in any event, it lacks a political strategy to produce a peace settlement all parties can live with. Sri Lanka seems set for a protracted period of bloodshed and the international community is not well placed to help turn this around.
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