Publications

The first quarter of 2008 was a period of transition for Moscow and Beijing. Vladimir Putin switched roles with successor Dmitry Medvedev, but did not fade away.  Hu Jintao sailed into his second five-year term as the next generation of China’s leaders emerges. The quarter also witnessed political changes in neighboring countries with strong implications for Russia and China.  Beyond presidential politicking, Beijing and Moscow were confronted with a “domino” effect for self-rule: Kosova declared independence from Serbia; the fate of Taiwan remained uncertain for most of the first quarter as Beijing and Washington worked to rein back efforts by Taiwan’s President Chen and the Democratic Progressive Party to move toward de jure independence; and riots in Tibet in mid-March cast a long shadow over the 2008 Beijing Olympics.  Between domestic preoccupations and external challenges, Sino-Russian bilateral relations switched from hibernation to hyperactivity in March: leaders congratulated each other on elections and reelections; defense ministers initiated a military hotline; the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) worked out new areas of cooperation, and stepped up cooperation with Afghanistan while trying to dampen Iran’s bid for SCO membership.