Publications

We are once again faced with seemingly informed speculation as to the health of both Kim Jong Il and the North Korean regime. The news that Kim may have suffered a stroke or some other serious and potentially debilitating condition, and the fact that we know so little about the succession issues, though, shines a light on several important points for the policy communities in Washington, Seoul, Beijing and elsewhere.

For Washington, it drives home the obvious: the U.S. does not have a firm handle on what goes on inside North Korea. The hardest of all "hard targets," North Korea poses an incredibly difficult set of questions for both policy and military planners alike. The less obvious conclusion is that the U.S. should do everything in its power to mitigate this knowledge deficit by developing clear understandings with potential partners on how we, as a group, would respond to any instability that might arise from Kim Jong Il’s death or incapacitation.