Publications

The Japan-United States security alliance has entered a transitional phase. While the foundations of the alliance remain strong, the political environment in both capitals is changing, transforming the context in which alliance-related decisions are made. Both governments are distracted.

There is mounting concern about Tokyo’s ability to continue making a meaningful contribution to the alliance and regional affairs, particularly given the decline in Japanese power relative to that of China and political inertia in Tokyo. There are worries about Tokyo’s ability to follow through on promises already made, which in turn risks marginalizing the alliance in the eyes of U.S. decision makers. This is by no means guaranteed – but introspection that becomes policy paralysis is a dangerous possibility.