The debate over the impact of US withdrawals from Iraq depends heavily on just how much progress has been made in defeating Al Qa’ida in Iraq and in removing the threat from Moqtada Al Sadr and the Madhi Army. The Burke Chair has developed a major update to its previous reporting on key developments in the fighting, drawing on material provided by the Multinational Force- Iraq (MNF-I), the Department of Defense, the Department of State, the GAO, CBO and CRS, the Iraqi government, and other sources.
This report describes the current successes and failures in as much detail as possible, and illustrates many of the challenges likely to face Coalition forces in Iraq in the future. The full report can be found at: http://www.csis.org/media/csis/pubs/081117_iraq_war_progress.pdf
Much also depends on progress in Iraqi political accommodation and whether sectarian, ethnic, and other power struggles turn violent. This briefing surveys sectarian and ethnic trends, progress in political accommodation, developments in the fighting, and trends in casualties. Maps show the steady decline in Al Qa’ida capabilities since mid-2007 and the steady improvement in security in most provinces, but also the broader problems in sectarian and ethnic tensions and conflicts. Polling data developed by ABC shows how Iraqis view these issues by sect and ethnicity.
An overview is provided of the impact of the surge, its successes and failures, and its impact on Iraqi public opinion. There is also an assessment of Iraqi perceptions of US forces, with separate breakouts addressing views of the surge and whether and how long the US should stay.
The third key factor shaping the impact of US withdrawals is Iraqi progress in creating security forces that can take their place. The report also provides summary data on the trends in Iraqi force development, their funding, and MNF-I assessments of their effectiveness. Maps and charts are provided on the transfer of given areas to Iraqi security responsibility. The Burke Chair will issue a more detailed draft report shortly on the details of ISF progress and the challenges that still remain.
This is a working draft report, and it will be steadily updated over time. Suggested additions and corrections will be gratefully received and should be sent to Adam Mausner at amausner@csis.org.
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