Global Aging and the Sustainability of Public Pension Systems By James C. Capretta January 2007 The 2003 Aging Vulnerability Index March 2003

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Global Aging and the Sustainability of Public Pension Systems, released in January 2007, chronicles the efforts of twelve developed countries to prepare for their coming age waves—and in particular, to reform their public pension systems.  The study contrasts and compares retirement systems in different countries, discusses recent reforms, and evaluates likely developments.  It supplements the AVI’s strictly quantitative conclusions with a more qualitative analysis that takes into account differences in institutions, politics, and culture between countries. 

The CSIS Aging Vulnerability Index, or AVI, represents the first attempt to develop a comprehensive quantitative measure of the global aging challenge that is comparable across the developed countries.  The bottom line is a ranking of the major developed countries in terms of their “vulnerability” to rising old-age dependency costs.  Released in 2003 at a joint CSIS–European Commission conference in Brussels, the AVI is now being thoroughly revised and updated to reflect new developments—demographic, economic, and programmatic. The new edition will be available later this year.

GAI is also in the early stages of building an interactive website devoted to the long-term fiscal and economic challenges of global aging. When fully developed, the site will feature interactive data retrieval, charting, and sensitivity analysis based on the Aging Vulnerability Index, as well as continuously updated news and analysis. The site will function as an information switchboard for a community that includes everyone who makes or uses long-term forecasts of demographic, fiscal, and economic trends—whether in government, business, or the media.