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Home page  About CSIS Programs Global Aging Initiative Research Agenda
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Research Agenda
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In 2007 and beyond, the Global Aging Initiative will be pursuing a broad and interdisciplinary agenda. The following projects are already underway or soon to be launched:Global Aging Forum The Global Aging Forum, now in its third year, is a members only roundtable where sponsors and select experts from the worlds of business, policy, and government meet to discuss "global aging." Every month CSIS hosts an informal lunch focused on some aspect of the challenge. There is a brief presentation by a prominent policy or thought leader followed by an off-the-record discussion. The sessions focus on real world policy applications and solutions. Speakers have included Brad Belt (Executive Director of the PBGC), Leon Kass (Chairman of the President's Council on Bioethics), Bill Novelli (Chief Executive Officer of the AARP), Adair Turner (Chairman of the UK Pensions’ Commission), and David Walker (Comptroller General of the United States). Demographics and Geopolitics in the 21st Century Over the next few decades, the population of the developed world will age dramatically and in many nations enter a steep decline. Meanwhile, the population throughout much of the developing world, including the Islamic Belt and Sub-Saharan Africa, will still be growing at a rapid rate. GAI is nearing completion of a major two-year project that investigates how global demographic trends are likely to reshape the geopolitical landscape of the 21 st century—and in particular, how they may constrain the ability of the United States and other developed countries to maintain national and global security. The project looks beyond the usual concerns about potential manpower shortages and tight defense budgets to consider how demographics might affect the broader social, economic, and political environment in ways that diminish or enhance the global stature of different countries and regions of the world. The Graying of the Middle Kingdom Revisited
Although China is still a relatively young nation, it is about to undergo a stunning demographic transformation. By 2040, there will be 400 million Chinese elders, of whom 100 million will be aged 80 and over. In 2004, GAI released The Graying of the Middle Kingdom, a highly influential report that explored the implications of China’s looming age wave and highlighted the economic, social, and political risks if China fails to prepare for the challenge. GAI’s new study, which is now in its early stages, will offer a “report card” on recent government reform efforts in areas ranging from pension reform to capital market reform. It will also further develop CSIS’ proposal, first outlined in the Graying of the Middle Kingdom, for creating a new retirement system that combines a universal floor of poverty protection with genuinely funded personal accounts.
The Aging of Latin America
GAI’s Latin America project, which we plan to launch in the fall of 2007, will review the outlook for retirement security in four countries—Brazil, Chile, Argentina, and Mexico. Although all four countries are due to age rapidly later in the century, all have a broad “demographic window” to prepare for the challenge. The project will compare and contrast the progress that the four have made in putting in place adequate and affordable retirement systems—from Chile (the original "privatizer") to Brazil (which has yet to undertake significant reform). It will also look more broadly at economic, social, and cultural factors that might help or hinder countries’ successful response to the aging challenge, and in particular their ability to boost economic growth and per capita incomes before their age waves roll in.
Expanded and Updated Aging Vulnerability IndexCSIS’ path breaking Aging Vulnerability Index, developed by GAI in 2003, represents the first attempt to develop a comprehensive measure of the global aging challenge that is comparable across the developed countries. GAI is now in the process of updating the original Index to reflect new demographic and economic projections and recent reforms to old-age benefit systems in a number of countries. It also plans to develop an interactive website based on the Index that features data retrieval, charting, and sensitivity analysis, as well as continuously updated news and analysis of global aging issues. The site would function as an information switchboard for a community that includes everyone who makes or uses long-term forecasts of demographic, fiscal, and economic trends—whether in government, business, or the media. GAI is also exploring possible future projects in the following areas:
Human Resources in an Aging World
The project would investigate the challenges and opportunities that global aging poses for employers worldwide. As workforces age, businesses will have to retool, physically and organizationally, to take advantage of the older employee. Growing labor shortages in the developed world will put a premium on new forms of human capital formation (such as lifelong career training) and on innovations in cross-border outsourcing, immigrant hiring, and diversity training. Elder care may compete with childcare as a benefit. Cuts in government old-age entitlements may create a growing demand for larger pension and health benefits from employers—and for new ways to extend work spans via flexible retirement and “rehirement.” The project, which will serve as a long-term “vision scan” for HR professionals, will be of particular value to large global firms that are encountering many of these issues already.
Demography and Financial Markets Population aging and population decline in the developed world could have a large and potentially destabilizing impact on global financial markets. As the share of the population in the retirement years rises, many economists predict that private savings rates—and asset prices—could experience a dramatic decline. Meanwhile, the growing cost of pay-as-you-go retirement and health benefit programs could lead to large and chronic public-sector deficits, further undermining national savings. Slowly growing or contracting labor forces in the developed world may also mean slower economic growth, falling investment demand, and lower long-term returns to capital. The project would assess the relative importance of these effects and explore their real world implications, including the likely impact on the magnitude and direction of global capital flows.
Demography and Globalization
The project would examine potential synergies between aging developed nations and younger developing nations. While divergent global demographics pose a challenge to world peace and prosperity in the 21st century, they also offer an historic opportunity to forge new bonds between the world’s rich and poor nations. Immigration and outsourcing can match jobs and workers, helping to ease labor shortages and boost economic growth. Cross-border investment can match savings activity and investment opportunities, allowing savers in older and more slowly growing economies to enjoy the higher returns available in younger and faster growing economies around the world. Although this “globalization strategy” must overcome real obstacles, including the lack of transparency and security in the capital markets of many developing countries, it holds out the promise that young people can help themselves by helping to support old people across international borders. As such, it is an essential strategy for an aging world.
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