Policy Memo Archive (2000-1997) PONARS policy memos are short, succinct (two to four page) memos primarily intended for a policymaking audience. They are derived from the current research of PONARS members and have become an excellent resource for policymakers and non-policymakers alike. The memos are thorough and accessible, and cover topics too current to be addressed by journal articles. PONARS publications are funded through the International Peace and Security Program of the Carnegie Corporation of New York and the Program on Global Security and Sustainability of the John D. and Catherine T. MacArthur Foundation. The views expressed in these publications are those of the author alone. Publication of these series does not imply endorsement by PONARS, the Center for Strategic and International Studies, the Carnegie Corporation, or the MacAuthur Foundation. Policy Memos and Working Papers are also available in the Russia and Eurasia Program's Associated Publications section | 2000 | 182. Russia's Belarus Dilemma Arkady Moshes 181. "Kosovo Syndrome" and the Great Nuclear Debate of 2000 Nikolai Sokov 180. Putin's Boost-Phase Defense: The Offer That Wasn't Pavel Podvig 179. Nuclear De-emphasizing in Russia's Military Thinking: Phantom or Reality? Alexander A. Pikayev 178. Nuclear Programs in North Korea and Iran: Assessing Russia's Position Vladimir A. Orlov 177. A Sober Second Look: Reassessing the Logic of Missile Defense Bear F. Braumoeller 176. Russia's Views on Cruise Missiles in the Context Deborah Yarsike Ball 175. Too Much of a Good Thing? High Oil Prices and Russian Monetary Policy David M. Woodruff 174. Exchange Rate Policy After the Currency Crisis: Walking the Tightrope Vladimir Popov 173. The Limits of US Influence on Russian Economic Policy Mark Kramer 172. Russia and the European Union: The Case of Kaliningrad Alexander Sergounin 171. EU Enlargement in the Baltic Sea Region and Russia: Obvious Problems, Unclear Solutions Arkady Moshes 170. Why the United States Should Cede its Russia Policy to Europe Ted Hopf 169. Too Much of a Good Thing? Conditionality and Change in Post-Soviet States Jeffrey T. Checkel 168. Central Asia's Stability and Russia's Security Dmitri Trenin 167. International Terrorism in the Southern Tier: Perceived or Real Threat to Russia's Security? Ekaterina Stepanova 166. A Dangerous Balancing Act: Karimov, Putin, and the Taliban Pauline Jones Luong 165. Russia's Strategic Partnerships and Global Security Andrew C. Kuchins 164. Peace-Building and Conflict Resolution in Nagorno-Karabakh Stuart J. Kaufman 163. The Forgotten Abkhazia: Anatomy of Post-Socialist Ethnic War Georgi Derluguian 162. Russia's New Caspian Policy Douglas W. Blum 161. The New Federal Structure: More Centralized, or More of the Same? Steven Solnick 160. The Russian Constitution and Foreign Policy: Regional Aspects Mikhail I. Rykhtik 159. Broken Pendulum: Recentralization Under Putin Nikolai Petrov 158. Gubernatorial Elections in the Volgograd Region: Do They Matter? Ivan Kurilla 157. Russia's Path to a New Regional Policy Matthew Evangelista 156. Russia's Periphery in the Global Arena: Do Regions Matter in the Kremlin's Foreign Policy? Mikhail A. Alexseev 155. Putin and the Russian Military Kimberly Marten 154. The Duma and Military Reform Brian D. Taylor 153. Putin's Court: How the Military Fits In Pavel Baev 152. The Social Cost of Russian Military Reform: Redefining Priorities for US Assistance Oksana Antonenko 151. Russian Nationalism and Vladimir Putin's Russia Astrid S. Tuminez 150. Alexander Solzhenitsyn as a Mirror of the Russian Counter-Revolution Eduard Ponarin 149. The Importance of the Politics of Friendship for Contemporary Russia Oleg Kharkhordin 148. Can Putin Rebuild the Russian State? Stephen E. Hanson 147. The Essence of Putinism: The Strengthening of the Privatized State Dmitri Glinski 146. The Dictatorship of Law in Russia: Neither Dictatorship, Nor Rule of Law Vladimir Gel'man 145. The Sinking of the Kursk Mark Kramer 144. The Clinton-Putin Summit and the Ultimate Security Issue: Democracy in Russia Sarah E. Mendelson 143. Explaining the International Community's Response to the War in Chechnya Sarah E. Mendelson 142. Human Rights Violations in Chechnya: Implications for Western Assistance to Russia Kimberly Marten 141. Reforming the IMF? Lessons from Assistance to Post-Communist Countries Randall Stone 140. The Role for US Democracy Assistance: Helping Build Parties from the Bottom Up Regina Smyth 139. Supporting Democratic Institutions Rather than "democrats" in Russia Regina Smyth 138. Russia and the European Union: The Northern Dimension Alexander Sergounin 137. The Case for Assisting Russian NGOs James Richter 136. Economic Assistance to Russia: Ineffectual, Politicized, and Corrupt? Yoshiko M. Herrera 135. Rethinking the Role of International Institutions in Post-Soviet States Jeffrey T. Checkel
134. Russian Policy and the Potential for Agreement on Revising the ABM Treaty Celeste A. Wallander
133. The Reality and Myths of Nuclear Regionalism in Russia Nikolai Sokov 132. START and the ABM Treaty: Is a Compromise Possible? Paul Podvig 131. Russia's Policy on Nonproliferation Under Putin Vladimir A. Orlov 130. Still Hobbling Along: An Update on the Russian Banking System Astrid S. Tuminez 129. Why the Russian Economy is Unlikely to Become a New "Asian Tiger" Vladimir Popov 128. Capital Flight and Russian Economic Reform Mark Kramer 127. Repairing Relations with Russia Through NATO Celeste A. Wallander 126. The Views of the Russian Elite Toward NATO Membership Dmitri Glinski 125. New Challenges to US-Russian Relations Mikhail I. Rykhtik 124. The Finlandization of Russia? The Kremlin's Geopolitical and Geo-economic Choices Alexander A. Pikayev 123. Russian Policy Towards Ukraine, Belarus, and the Baltic States in the Putin Era Arkady Moshes 122. The Limited Reach of Russia's Party System: Under-Institutionalization in the Provinces Kathryn Stoner-Weiss 121. Russia's Nationalist Consolidation: Love it or Leave it? Eduard Ponarin 120. Southern Russia: The Heartland or Russia's Soft Underbelly? Ivan Kurilla 119. The State of Democratization in Russia in Light of the Elections Henry E. Hale 118. Russia's Population Crisis: The Migration Dimension Theodore P. Gerber 117. The Unintended Consequences of Anti-Federalist Centralization in Russia Mikhail A. Alexseev 116. Putin and the Military: How Long Will the Honeymoon Last? Brian D. Taylor 115. Putin and the Provinces Steven Solnick 114. Consolidation of the State and Economic Policy Scenarios Under Putin Vadim Radaev 113. The 2000 Presidential Elections: The Political Taste and Aftertaste Nikolai Petrov 112. Putin in Russian Historical Context Georgi Derluguian 111. The Dynamics of US-Russian Relations: A Critical Perspective Celeste A. Wallander
110. Is Russian Nationalism on the Rise? Henry E. Hale 109. A History of the ABM Treaty in Russia Paul Podvig 108. The Prospects for ABM Treaty Modification Alexander A. Pikayev 107. Will Russia Go for a Military Victory in Chechnya? Pavel Baev 106. Power as Patronage: Russian Parties and Russian Democracy Regina Smyth 105. Hobbling Along: Russian Banking Reform Astrid S. Tuminez 104. Reflections on Putin's Rise to Power Georgi Derluguian 103. What is Driving Russia's New Strategic Concept? Mark Kramer 102. Russian National Security Policy in 2000 Celeste A. Wallander 101. Foreign Policy Under Putin: Pro-Western Pragmatism Might Be a Greater Challenge to the West Nikolai Sokov [ 1999 ] 100. Western Policy on Chechnya: Rationalizing Relations with Russia? Ekaterina Stepanova 99. Civil-Military Relations in Russia and the Chechnya Conflict Mark Kramer 98. Chechnya: the Military's Golden Opportunity to Emerge as an Important Political Player in Russia Eva Busza 97. Methods of Central Control Over Russia's Provinces, and Prospects for the Future Steven Solnick 96. The Federation Council and Representation of Regional Interests Nikolai Petrov 95. Dagestan and Chechnya: Russia's Self-Defeating Wars Matthew Evangelista 94. The "Yellow Peril" Revisited: The Impact of Chinese Migration in Primorskii Krai Mikhail A. Alexseev 93. The Death of Arms Control: Popular Myths About What Russia Can and Will Do Nikolai Sokov 92. Russian Nuclear Forces in Ten Years with and without START II Pavel Podvig 91. The Security of Russia's Nuclear Arsenal: The Human Factor Deborah Yarsike Ball 90. Dilemmas and Tradeoffs in Russian Exchange Rate Policy David M. Woodruff 89. Russia Since August 1998: A Political-Economic Balance Sheet Astrid S. Tuminez 88. Russia and the Rest: Economic Reform and Western Assistance Randall Stone 87. Evaluating Democracy Assistance to Eastern Europe and Eurasia Sarah E. Mendelson 86. Food Aid to Russia: The Fallacies of US Policy Mark Kramer 85. Lessons from Russia's Experience with Market-Oriented Reform Yoshiko M. Herrera 84. Russian Security Policy and the Prospects for Multilateralism in the Asia-Pacific Alexander Sergounin 83. Will We See a New Russian Security Policy After the Elections? Mikhail I. Rykhtik 82. Russian-Ukrainian Relations After Ukraine's Elections Arkady Moshes 81. How NATO's War in Yugoslavia is Making Foreign Policy in Moscow Ted Hopf 80. Access, Influence and Policy Change: The Multiple Roles of NGOs in Post-Soviet States Jeffrey T. Checkel 79. Security and Rule-Enforcement in Russian Business: The Role of the "Mafia" and the State Vadim Volkov 78. Russian Entrepreneurship After the 1998 Crisis Vadim Radaev 77. The Invisible Fist: Russia's Criminal Predators Against Markets and Themselves Georgi Derluguian 76. Assessing the Impact of Elections on Democratic Consolidation Regina Smyth 75. Revenge of the Administrative System: The Primakov-Luzhkov Silver Lining Eduard Ponarin 74. Critical Political Mass: Russia's Emerging Party System Henry E. Hale 73. The Eve of Electoral Threshold: New Challenges in Russian Politics Vladimir Gel'man 72. Russian Political Attitudes and Political Parties Bear Braumoeller 71. The Dissonant Concert: US-Russian Relations in the UN Security Council Kimberly Marten 70. Russian-US Relations in the Post Post-Cold War World Celeste A. Wallander 69. Who Won and Will Win Russia? Michael McFaul 68. Globalization and American Policy Toward Russia Douglas W. Blum 67. Institutional Decline in the Russian Military: Exit, Voice and Corruption Kimberly Marten 66. The Spread of Violence in Russian Business in the Late 1990s Vadim Radaev 65. Changing Rules for Russian Roulette? Rethinking the Soldier, State and Society in Russia Eva Busza 64. Security Implications of the Russian Identity Crisis Eduard Ponarin 63. Arms Control in the Context of Current US-Russian Relations Brian D. Taylor 62. Russian Views on Kosovo: Synopsis of May 6 Panel Discussion Celeste A. Wallander 61. How Kosovo Empowers the Russian Military Deborah Yarsike Ball 60. Russia, Serbia and the West Redux Astrid S. Tuminez 59. The Bright Side of Russia's Regionalization Alexander Sergounin 58. Russia, Kosovo and Security Cooperation Celeste A. Wallander 57. Explaining Russia's Dissention on Kosovo Ekaterina Stepanova 56. The IMF-Russian Negotiations and Proliferation of Nuclear Weapons Nikolai Sokov [ 1998 ] 55. The Company They Keep: Some Observations on Russian Management Astrid S. Tuminez 54. Breaking Up is Hard to Do: Applying Lessons from Soviet Disintegration to the Russian Federation Henry E. Hale 53. Russia's Caspian Policy Under Primakov Douglas W. Blum 52. Russia and Regional Multilateral Security Andrew Kuchins 51. Promoting Activism or Professionalism in Russia's Civil Society? James Richter 50. The US Second Line of Defense: Preventing Nuclear Smuggling Across Russia's Borders Deborah Yarsike Ball 49. The Political Costs of Western Investment in Russian Spin-off Companies Kimberly Marten 48. International Institutions and Russian Security Cooperation Celeste A. Wallander 47. Strategies for US Democracy Assistance to Russia After Market Failure Sarah E. Mendelson 46. Why and How the US Should Aid Russia Michael McFaul 45. The Rise and Fall of the Russian Internal Troops? Brian D. Taylor 44. Yeltsin's Latest Military Reform Initiative: Operational-Strategic Commands Eva Busza 43. Nuclear Weapons and Russia's Economic Crisis Nikolai Sokov 42. The Regionalization of Autocracy in Russia Henry E. Hale 41. Primakov in Context: The Myths and Realities of Russia's New Prime Minister Jeffrey T. Checkel 40. Breaking the Vicious Cycle of Uncertainty in Post-Communist Russia Stephen E. Hanson 39. Central Weakness and Provincial Autonomy: The Process of Devolution in Russia Kathryn Stoner-Weiss 38. The Russian Barter Debate: Implications for Western Policy David M. Woodruff 37. US Policy and Russia's Economic Plight: Lessons from the Meltdown Mark Kramer 36. Policy Lessons from the Russian Economic Crisis Randall Stone 35. The Current Russian Economic Crisis is Neither Pauline Jones Luong 34. Why Military Dissatisfaction Is Not a Threat to the Russian State Kimberly Marten 33. Russia's Financial Meltdown: Causes and Policy Responses Randall Stone 32. Options for Resolution of the Conflict in Abkhazia Stuart Kaufman 31. Clinton's Moscow Mission Michael McFaul 30. The Russian National Security Concept: A Liberal-Statist Synthesis Celeste A. Wallander 29. Russia's Relations with NATO: Lessons from the History of the Entente Cordiale Nikolai Sokov 28. Russia's Strategic View: Diminished Threats and Diminished Capabilities Deborah Yarsike Ball 27. Value Tradeoffs and America's Caspian Policy: Energy, the Environment, and Sustainable Development Douglas W. Blum 26. Foreign Funding of Social Movements in Russia Valerie Sperling 25. Current Russian Views on US-Russian Security Relations and Military Reform Sarah E. Mendelson [ 1997 ] 24. Could Norway Trigger a Nuclear War? Notes on the Russian Command and Control System Nikolai Sokov 23. Domestic Structure, Economic Growth, and Russian Foreign Policy Nikolai Sokov 22. Strategies For Energy Development In Central Asia: International Implications Pauline Jones Luong 21. In Its Own Image: Toward a Re-conceptualization of Central Asia Pauline Jones Luong 20. Russia In Search of Itself: Nationalism and the Future of the Russian State Astrid S. Tuminez 19. Russia and the WTO: The Work to be Done Michael Rosenbaum 18. The Coming Unemployment Crisis in Russia Stephen E. Hanson 17. The New Tribalism and America's Russia Policy Stuart Kaufman 16. Russian-American Relations in the Post-Cold War Environment Andrei Kortunov 15. Russia's Fiscal Veto on CIS Integration Henry E. Hale 14. Empowerment, Ricochets and End-Runs: Russia's Integration with Western Human Rights Institutions and Practices Jeffrey T. Checkel 13. Promoting a Strong Civil Society: US Foreign Assistance and Russian NGOs James Richter 12. The Next Step in Democracy Assistance to Russia: Targeting Military Reform Sarah E. Mendelson 11. The Emerging Sino-Russian Strategic Partnership and Eurasian Security Andrew Kuchins 10. Kaliningrad Oblast, Russia, and Baltic Security Mark Kramer 9. Russia's International Integration and Caspian Sea Oil Fiona Hill 8. Domestic Politics and Russia's Caspian Policy Douglas W. Blum 7. Contact Lenses: Transparency and US-Russian Military Ties Kimberly Marten 6. Short-Term Compromises and Long-Term Dangers for Russian-American Security Cooperation Mathew Evangelista 5. The Domestic Politics of NATO Expansion in Russia: Implications for American Foreign Policy Michael McFaul 4. The Pending Crisis in Russian Civil-Military Relations Deborah Yarsike Ball 3. Main Problems for Civilian Control of Military Budgets in Russia Boris Jelezov 2. The Russian Military Outside Politics: a Historical Perspective Brian D. Taylor 1. The Economization, Rationalization, and Normalization of Russian Foreign Policy Celeste A. Wallander
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