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What are CSIS experts' boldest geopolitical predictions in 2026?

Analysis by Will Todman, Ryan C. Berg, Max Bergmann, Victor Cha, Thomas J. Christensen, Charles Edel, Kristi Govella, Henrietta Levin, Bonny Lin, Oge Onubogu, Gregory B. Poling, Richard M. Rossow, and Mona Yacoubian

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Victor Cha in Foreign Affairs: South Korea Can Stand Up to China

Commentary by Victor Cha — January 21, 2026

Ongoing Military Operations Around Venezuela Cost $31 Million per Day—$2.8 Million Is Unbudgeted

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CSIS Charts — January 20, 2026

Tech Edge: A Living Playbook for America’s Technology Long Game

Winning the tech race is not about any single breakthrough. Leadership requires competing across the full menu of technologies, developing the dexterity to build at speed and scale, and defending our domestic markets from nonmarket competition.

Report by Navin Girishankar, Mark P. Dallas, Sree Ramaswamy, Scott Kennedy, Philip Luck, Joseph Majkut, Ilaria Mazzocco, Erin L. Murphy, Matt Pearl, Richard M. Rossow, Sujai Shivakumar, Chris Borges, Ray Cai, and Ryan Featherston — January 20, 2026

Watch: Greenland's Role in Arctic Security

Video — January 14, 2026

Photo: Carsten Snejbjerg/Bloomberg via Getty Images

Greenland, Rare Earths, and Arctic Security

Report by Meredith Schwartz and Gracelin Baskaran

Photo: FABRICE COFFRINI/AFP/Getty Images

The Future of the WHO—and How the United States Can Shape It

Commentary by J. Stephen Morrison and Paul Friedrichs

In China's Orbit: Beijing's Space Diplomacy in the Global South

Commentary by Matthew P. Funaiole, Brian Hart, and Aidan Powers-Riggs

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Featured Book

China’s Weaponization of Trade

In recent years, China and the United States have each turned economic interdependence into an instrument of coercion, using their dominant positions in international trade to push states and firms to comply with their political goals. What is distinctive about this form of economic pressure, and how can other countries fight back?

In a new book, CSIS Korea Chair experts shed new light on how China exercises economic power—and provide a playbook to deter bullies and rebalance the global order.

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On China is a leading resource for policymakers confronting a new era of great power competition, with innovative research, diverse viewpoints, and cutting-edge multimedia from across CSIS