2016 Global Forecast
November 15, 2015
An annual collection of wide-ranging essays by CSIS experts, 2016 Global Forecast discusses the issues that will matter most to America and the world’s security and prosperity in the year ahead.
PART 1: GEOSTRATEGY
Reconnecting of Asia
John J. Hamre
PART 2: U.S. STRATEGY
America’s Changing Role in the World
Kathleen H. Hicks
Seeking the Right Strategy for Our Time
Michael J. Green
The Challenge to U.S. Leadership
James A. Lewis
PART 3: MIDDLE EAST
Isis (Re)Writes History
Jon B. Alterman
Wanted: A U.S. Strategy for Syria and Iraq
Melissa G. Dalton
Iran After the Agreement
Anthony H. Cordesman
U.S.-Israel Ties After the Agreement
Haim Malka
PART 4: RUSSIA, EUROPE, AND EURASIA
Putin’s Europe
Heather A. Conley
Inside the Kremlin
Olga Oliker
A NATO Strategy for the Eastern Flank
Jeffery Rathke
Sino-Russian Cooperation
Jeffery Mankoff
PART 5: NORTHEAST, SOUTHEAST, AND SOUTH ASIA
Reform Cold, Politics Hot: President Xi Jinping at Mid-Term
Christopher K. Johnson
Economic Consequences of China’s Slowdown
Scott Kennedy
Geopolitical Consequences of China’s Slowdown
Bonnie S. Glaser and Matthew Funaiole
Beyond TPP: Shaping an Economic Strategy in Asia
Ernest Bower, Matthew Goodman, and Scott Miller
Interested in India’s Geopolitical Future? Look to its States
Rick Rossow
North Korean Vulnerability?
Victor Cha and Lisa Collins
PART 6: AFRICA
Rising Africa Faces a Critical Test
Jennifer Cooke
Terrorism in Sub-Saharan Africa
Thomas M. Sanderson
PART 7: INSIDE THE PENTAGON
Fiscal Futures, U.S. Forces, and Strategic Choices
Mark Cancian and Todd Harrison
The Battle over How to Save Defense Acquisition
Andrew Hunter
PART 8: EVOLVING THREATS AND CAPABILITIES
Space and Security
A Conversation with Sean O'Keefe
Nuclear Deterrence in a Disordered World
Rebecca K.C. Hersman
The Need for Global Zero
Sharon Squassoni
Missile Defense and Deterrence
Thomas Karako
Disrupting the Cyber Status Quo
Denise E. Zheng
PART 9: ENERGY AND SECURITY
Implications of Sustained Low Oil Prices
Frank A. Verrastro
Implications of a Low-Carbon Future
Sarah O. Ladislaw
Efficacy of Sanctions on Energy-Producing Countries
Edward C. Chow
PART 10: HUMAN RIGHTS, HUMAN SECURITY, AND PUBLIC DIPLOMACY
Responding to the Closing of Democratic Space
Shannon N. Green
Soft Power and Security
Daniel Runde
After the Ebola Catastrophe
J. Stephen Morrison
Food Insecurity, Conflict, and Stability
Kimberly Flowers
Normalization and Human Rights in Cuba
Carl Mecham
Winning the War of Ideas
Farah Pandith and Juan Zarate
