The Absence of Consensus

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Korea Chair Snapshot

  •  The latest missile test this weekend (February 7) indicates DPRK fluency with long-range missile launch technology -- they know how to put a payload into orbit.  Unclear is whether they can accurately guide a warhead back through the atmosphere to a target thousands of miles away.
  • The growing absence of consensus between the United States and China/Russia is evident in the protracted length of time it takes to obtain a UN Security Council resolution after a North Korean nuclear test or long-range missile launch.
     
  • During the Bush Administration, the average amount of time for a UNSCR to pass after a DPRK nuclear weapons test or missile launch was 7.5 days.
     
  • During the Obama administration, the average number of days between a UNSCR and DPRK provocation is 27 days.
     
  • The chart below, from CSIS's database of North Korean provocations, details this observation. It has been 33 days since the January 6 nuclear test with no UNSCR yet from the UNSC.
     

 

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Asia Korea Defense and Security Defense Strategy and Capabilities Geopolitics and International Security Nuclear Issues and Energy and Geopolitics
Victor Cha

Victor Cha

Senior Vice President for Asia and Korea Chair

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