If the US and its allies are to achieve any meaningful form of victory in Afghanistan, they must make a realistic assessment of progress to date. They must develop and begin to implement realistic transition plans during the first half of this year. The Burke chair at CSIS has developed a two-part report that shows the progress made to date in the war.
The first part is entitled Afghanistan: At the End of 2011: Part One - Trends in the War. It is available on the CSIS web site at: https://csis.org/files/publication/120103_Afghan_War_at_End_Part_1.pdf
This report uses official US and ISAF data, maps, and charts to describe the progress in the fighting, developments in the insurgency, and the campaign plans for 2012. It also shows trends in casualties and other measures of the intensity of combat. These data are contrasted with other reporting from the UN and NGOs.
The second part is entitled Afghanistan: At the End of 2011: Part Two – Transition. It is available on the CSIS web site at: https://csis.org/files/publication/120103_Afghan_War_at_End_Part_2.pdf
This report focuses on the challenges of transition. It again uses official US and ISAF data, maps, and charts to summarize transition plans as of late 2011. It also focuses on the key challenges involved in a successful transition, and the key problems in the aid effort, the creation of effective Afghan security forces, and improving Afghan governance that must be addressed for transition to succeed. It also addresses the cost of the war, and the potential size of the future aid effort necessary to make transition workable.
Comments and suggestions should be sent to Anthony H. Cordesman at acordesman@gmail.com or Adam Mausner at amausner@csis.org.
