Afghanistan after the Drawdown

April 7, 2014

Three primary factors will define post-2014 Afghanistan: security, governance, and the economy. Security is uncertain at best, notwithstanding the optimistic public projections of the U.S. military leaders. Reasonably decent governance will depend on the security environment, and Afghanistan has had a miserable record of governance with poor performance and rampant corruption. Similarly, economic growth will depend on the security environment and on governance performance.

After the military drawdown, the United States is still committed to a $4 billion per year assistance program in Afghanistan. What should that program look like? What objectives should it have? What strategy should inform it? What obstacles will impede its success?