Agile and Adaptable: U.S. and NATO Approaches to Russia's Short-Term Military Potential

Russia’s war in Ukraine has triggered the worst security crisis facing Europe since the end of the Cold War. It brought a major conventional war of aggression to the European continent and enormous human suffering, but in doing so it has also unified and reenergized the NATO alliance and accelerated efforts to reconstitute transatlantic defense and deterrence. Assessing Russia’s performance in the war thus far, and how the Russian military is evolving as a result, is an important part of that effort. This report assesses changes in the Russian military threat to NATO over the short term (two to four years), and it provides analysis on how the United States and NATO might adapt their strategies, planning, and posture in response.

This publication was funded by the Russia Strategic Initiative, U.S. European Command. The views expressed in this publication do not necessarily represent the views of the Department of Defense or the United States government. 

Lisa Aronsson

Research Fellow, Center for Strategic Research, Institute for National Strategic Studies at National Defense University

John R. Deni

Research Professor of JIIM Security Studies, Strategic Studies Institute, U.S. Army War College
Hannah Notte
Senior Associate (Non-Resident), Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program