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Al Qaeda’s Struggling Campaign in Syria

Past, Present, and Future

April 4, 2018

CSIS
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With President Donald Trump threatening to pull out of Syria, the Bashar al-Assad regime ramping up its military campaign against rebels, and the Islamic State in decline, al Qaeda has attempted to resurge and reposition itself at the center of global Salafi-jihadist activity. Syria has been perhaps its most important prize. For some, al Qaeda’s cunning and concerted efforts in Syria and other countries highlight the group’s resilience and indicate its potential to resurge and rejuvenate.

Yet a growing body of evidence suggests that al Qaeda has largely failed to take advantage of the Syrian war. Confusion and finger-pointing have been rampant as individuals have clashed over ideology, territorial control, personalities, loyalty to al Qaeda leader Ayman al-Zawahiri, and command-and-control relationships. Al Qaeda’s struggles in Syria have also highlighted some weaknesses of al-Zawahiri. The al Qaeda leader has had difficulty communicating with local groups in Syria, been slow to respond to debates in the field, and discovered that some Salafi-jihadist fighters have brazenly disobeyed his guidance. As one Salafi-jihadist leader remarked, “The situation in Syria for the jihad is extremely dire.”

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Written By
Seth G. Jones
Harold Brown Chair; Director, Transnational Threats Project; and Senior Adviser, International Security Program
Charles Vallee
Research Assistant and Program Coordinator, Transnational Threats Project
Maxwell B. Markusen
Associate Director and Associate Fellow, Transnational Threats Project
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Defense and Security, Geopolitics and International Security, Middle East, Transnational Threats Project

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