Amid Obstacles, First Steps toward Improved Cooperation between India and Pakistan
September 14, 2012
The United States has long recognized that improved relations between India and Pakistan are a vital national security interest. Apart from the destabilizing effect that tensions between them could have on neighboring Afghanistan—and, conversely, the constructive role both could play by coordinating on Afghan reconstruction and regional integration—durable peace between the nuclear-armed neighbors is essential for the security of the region and the world. Yet the problem is much more easily acknowledged than solved. Mutual mistrust, recrimination, and episodic violence have characterized India-Pakistan relations for decades.
There is, however, reason to hope this stubborn state of affairs could change for the better. India and Pakistan have recently undertaken encouraging, if subtle, steps toward a less antagonistic relationship, including high-level diplomatic meetings, easing of trade and travel restrictions, and greater cooperation on energy and natural resources. While it remains to be seen whether these steps can help consolidate regional prosperity and stability in the long run, the signs of improvement are encouraging in their own right.
India-Pakistan negotiations over major bilateral issues were moribund for over two years after the Mumbai attacks of 2008. Not only has dialogue resumed, but India and Pakistan have expanded it from an initial focus almost exclusively on Kashmir, to Kashmir plus other issues, and now to all issues plus Kashmir. The territorial dispute over Kashmir has defied solution for decades; that it is no longer at the forefront of negotiations creates room for progress on other issues.
And there has been progress. The current phase of India-Pakistan dialogue began in March 2011, which happened to coincide with the advancement of both countries’ cricket teams to the semifinal round of the World Cup. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh of India invited Prime Minister Yousaf Raza Gilani and President Asif Ali Zardari of Pakistan to attend the match. From that gesture grew others: in April 2012, President Zardari visited India in the highest-level political visit by a Pakistani to India in seven years; in August, Prime Minister Singh and President Zardari met at the sidelines of the Non-Aligned Movement summit in Iran. Most recently, Indian foreign minister S.M. Krishna’s visit to Islamabad this past weekend yielded concrete results as India and Pakistan agreed to lift some restrictions on bilateral travel and investment.
Improving trade relations would help both countries build trust and realize immediate gains through lower prices, access to cheaper raw materials, and increased employment and investment. Trade in energy in particular would help Pakistan address the high energy prices and power shortages that are holding back its economy and creating domestic discontent. The agreements reached last weekend represent part of a broader trend of rapidly warming trade relations that would have been unthinkable right after 2008. In September 2011, the two announced plans to implement the South Asian Free Trade Agreement (SAFTA). Pakistan is set to grant India most-favored nation (MFN) trade status later this year. India is exploring the option of selling Pakistan electricity. India and Pakistan are meanwhile forging ahead—admittedly contrary to U.S. preferences—on an agreement to build a pipeline linking them both to Iran. Construction on the Iran-Pakistan-India (IPI) pipeline will start as early as December.
Good news notwithstanding, real obstacles remain that could slow down, or even derail, the recent progress. India is suspicious of Pakistan’s links to terrorist organizations, especially since al Qaeda leader Osama bin Laden was killed on Pakistani soil in May 2011, and continues to prod Pakistan to move faster to punish those believed responsible for the Mumbai attacks, while Pakistan insists more evidence is needed. Most recently, the two have exchanged stern words over the source of threatening text messages, thought to have originated in Pakistan, that sparked panic and mass population movements in India’s northeast. Meanwhile, though the resumption of dialogue is to be applauded, it has so far yielded little progress on major issues, including Kashmir, Sir Creek, and water sharing.
Still, there is reason to hope that this most fraught of relationships in this most complicated of regions could move in the right direction. As an actor heavily engaged and invested in the region, the United States stands to realize tremendous, low-cost gains from most of the initiatives India and Pakistan are taking on their own, and it could best ensure their success simply by letting it happen—quietly encouraging progress while staying out of the way.
India and Pakistan have a bewildering array of issues to address, and the recent steps they have taken may appear small. But even these represent major strides forward in the context of decades of acrimony and impasse, marked by three wars since Pakistan’s independence and a legacy of bitter hostility over Kashmir. A journey of a thousand miles begins with a few steps in the right direction.
Sadika Hameed is a fellow with the Program on Crisis, Conflict, and Cooperation at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C. Kathy Gilsinan is a research intern with the CSIS Program on Crisis, Conflict, and Cooperation.
Commentary is produced by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a private, tax-exempt institution focusing on international public policy issues. Its research is nonpartisan and nonproprietary. CSIS does not take specific policy positions. Accordingly, all views, positions, and conclusions expressed in this publication should be understood to be solely those of the author(s).
© 2012 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. All rights reserved.