Beyond the Wire - 04 December 2017

Your daily briefing on the state of the world, and the state of the art for all things Transnational Threats. To view the interactive map, please click here. We welcome your feedback! Drop us a line at tnt@csis.org.

Western Hemisphere

When Terrorists Learn How to Hack
To date, attacks have included website defacement, doxing of personally identifiable information, and distributed denial of service (DDoS) attacks. But this could grow to more disruptive attacks, not only with the potential to spread fear, but also raise revenue across the far reaches of the globe. (Cipher Brief)

How Trump Is Going After Hezbollah in America's Backyard
The Trump administration is pushing back aggressively against what the intelligence community often refers to as the "Iran Threat Network" or ITN, and as part of that campaign it is especially keen to focus on the activities of Hezbollah, the pro-Iranian Lebanese militia, in Latin America. Now, new revelations about a Hezbollah cold case from 1994 underscore the importance of rolling back the group's footprint in the region. (Washington Institute)

South and Central Asia

Ayman al Zawahiri calls for ‘unity’ in Syria amid leadership crisis
On Nov. 28, al Qaeda released one of the most important messages from Ayman al Zawahiri in years. The jihad in Syria has unleashed another leadership crisis for al Qaeda, as Hay’at Tahrir al Sham leaders are feuding with others over the direction of the jihad. (Long War Journal)

Commander of Taliban 'Special Forces' Killed in Afghanistan
The commander of the Taliban’s “special forces” branch, known as the “Red Unit,” was killed last week in Helmand province by Afghan forces, according to Afghanistan’s main intelligence agency. The National Directorate of Security  said Mullah Shah Wali, also known as Mullah Naser, was killed in an air operation. (Reuters)

Crime, Casualties Undermine U.S. Gains on Afghan Battlefield
The shift in perceptions on the ground suggests ordinary Afghans are seeing the fresh U.S. strategy is successfully hitting the insurgents. But the population's new fears centered around casualties, crime, and corruption underline how much more is needed to build trust in the Western-backed government. (Reuters)

Europe and Eurasia

German Christmas Market Bomb Was Extortion Plot, Police Say
Authorities found a piece of paper near the Potsdam bomb that revealed a demand for ‘millions’ addressed to the postal company DHL. (Wall Street Journal)

Sub-Saharan Africa

Nigeria Puts Fortress Towns at Heart of New Boko Haram Strategy
Nigeria’s government has a plan for the northeast, torn apart by eight years of conflict with Boko Haram: displaced people will be housed in fortified garrison towns, ringed by farms, with the rest of the countryside effectively left to fend for itself. (Reuters)

The Pentagon Will Arm Drones in Niger, Boosting the Number of U.S. Troops There
Air Force personnel who specialize in transporting, inspecting, loading and maintaining weapons such as Hellfire missiles and GPS-guided bombs will be needed in Niger, along with refuelers, mechanics and other logistical personnel. (Washington Post)

Middle East and North Africa

Anthony Cordesman: The Other Side of the North Korean, Iranian, Hezbollah, and Yemeni Missile Threat
No one can discount the threat of nuclear war, even when the threat is still materializing and remains far lower than some media reports would indicate. At the same time, it makes little sense to define the nuclear threat simply in terms of the range of ballistic missiles and the reliability of their reentry vehicles without considering all of the factors that shape the real-world effectiveness of such weapons, and why and how they might actually be used. (CSIS)

CIA Chief Sends Letter To Iranian General Over Threats To U.S. Forces In Iraq
Director Mike Pompeo on December 2 told a defense forum in Simi Valley, California, that the letter to Major General Qassem Soleimani was never opened but that he wanted to send it because Soleimani had indicated his forces might threaten U.S. interests in Iraq. (Radio Free Europe)

U.A.E. Denies Yemen Rebels Fired Missile at Abu Dhabi Nuclear Plant
Yemen’s Houthi rebels said on Sunday that they had fired a cruise missile at a $20 billion nuclear power plant under construction in Abu Dhabi, but the United Arab Emirates’ state-run news agency immediately denied the claim. (New York Times)

Ali Abdullah Saleh, Yemen's Former Leader, Killed – Reports
Media controlled by the rebel Houthi movement quoted officials as declaring the "end of the crisis of the treason militia and the killing of its leader". Sources in Mr Saleh's General People's Congress party also confirmed that he was dead, according to Al Arabiya TV. Pictures and video circulated online showed the body of a man resembling Mr Saleh with a severe head wound. (BBC)

Mattis Signals Military Shift in Syria to Reflect ISIS Defeat
The U.S. military is shifting its stance in Syria as the program to arm the Kurdish opposition comes to a close and is replaced by increased support to local police and security forces. Mattis said the Pentagon is “changing the composition of our forces” in Syria to reflect the collapse of the Islamic State group there and a renewed emphasis on finding a diplomatic path to peace. (Military Times)

The Future of U.S.-Jordanian Counterterrorism Cooperation
Jordan is a key member of the anti-ISIS coalition. They host more than 2,800 U.S. military personnel; has supported train and equip efforts in southern Syria; and provides critical bases for the air campaign against the group. For its part, the United States has significantly increased not just its security assistance, but also its economic support and humanitarian aid to help Jordan shoulder new burdens imposed by regional turmoil. By 2016, U.S. assistance had reached almost $1.6 billion annually. (Middle East Institute)

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