Beyond the Wire - 05 JUN 17

Your daily brief on the state of the world and the state of the art for all things Transnational Threats.

United Kingdom hit by second terror attack in two weeks.

Three suspected jihadists drove across the London Bridge hitting dozens of civilians before stabbing several people at a local restaurant. The attack, which killed seven and injured 48, ended after police shot and killed all three attackers. In response to the attack, British police arrested 12 individuals over the past 24 hours as they attempt to determine whether the attackers were part of a larger network. (TNT Comment: The attack raises fear in the United Kingdom of a “new normal,” where jihadists use easy-to-acquire weapons like motor vehicles to conduct attacks. To combat the phenomenon, Thomas Hegghammer argues in Vice for an “EU-led 'Marshall plan' for improved education in immigrant-heavy areas; much more money for regular youth work; a scaling back of recent jihadi capability gains on the internet; longer sentences for terrorism-related crimes,” and more actions to mitigate terrorism in Europe.)

Iraqi forces slowly conduct final push to clear Mosul.

Although the Islamic State only controls about 10 square kilometers, up to 1,000 jihadist fighters are packed into the dense urban area. Additionally, as the Iraqi army and its Special Forces attempt to clear the area of the remaining fighters, the Islamic State continues to use civilians as human shields to prevent the use of airstrikes and artillery. (TNT Comment: Although international forces were slow to launch the offensive against Mosul, Iraqi forces’ more methodical clearing operations may avoid turning over a half-cleared Mosul to civilian control, a mistake that has sparked Iraqi insurgencies before.)

GCC countries cut diplomatic ties with Qatar.

Citing Qatar’s support for militant groups, including the Muslim Brotherhood, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, UAE, Libya, Yemen, and Bahrain cut diplomatic ties with Qatar. The move is expected to hinder Qatar’s financial and travel sectors and may also obstruct Qatar’s political heft in the Middle East. (TNT Comment: The inter-Sunni bloc rift will continue to complicate Arab counterterrorism cooperation especially as Egypt enters the already-crowded air war in Libya.)   
      

Significant Activity

Tunisian demonstrations spark revolutionary fervor. Carlotta Gall reports protestors demanding jobs around the Tunisian town of Tataouine who shut down a main oil pipeline in El Kamour and sparked violent clashes with the Tunisian National Guard. (NYT)

Turkish armed forces strike PKK in northern Iraq. Turkish air and ground forces conducted multiple operations in northern Iraq on June 4th and 5th that killed 30 members of the Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) while arresting 15 during on-the-ground raids. (Hurriyet)

Joint Southeast Asian naval patrol cuts off militant flow to Philippines. Indonesia, the Philippines, and Malaysia have started to conduct a sea operation that seeks to cut off the travel route of foreign militants to the Philippines through the Sulu Sea. (South China Morning Post)

Battle for eastern Syria escalates. While the common enemy of the Islamic State and its control wanes in Eastern Syria, potential conflict between U.S-backed and pro-regime forces becomes far more likely. (Foreign Affairs)

Germany withdraws from Incirlik airbase. German Foreign Minister Simar Gabriel announced that Germany will withdraw hundreds of soldiers from Incirlik Air Base for “domestic reasons,” eyeing new sites in Jordan, Kuwait, and Cyprus. (Rudaw)

Afghan army pleads for more NATO training. After a series of setbacks, including a car bomb that killed more than 80 people last week, the Afghan Army continues to struggle in gaining ground against the Taliban. (Reuters)

British intelligence express concern over “low-tech attacks.” After attackers in London killed 6 people on June 3rd, Prime Minister Teresa May and the British Intelligence community are ramping up their efforts to find a successful strategy in combating knife and van attacks.  (WSJ)

Pro-regime forces in Syria continue offensive after U.S. strikes. Syrian warplanes conducted airstrikes on locations in opposition-held Idlib in the wake of the April 7th U.S. cruise missile strikes and the recent mass movement of citizens from regime held terrain to opposition-controlled Idlib Province. (WSJ)

Islamist militants hunker down in Marawi. Militants linked to the Islamic State continue to stockpile weapons and food in tunnels and mosques amidst their ongoing siege of the Philippine town of Marawi. (Reuters)

Indonesia: 1,200 Islamic State operatives in Philippines. The Indonesian defense minister announced to an international security forum on June 4th that there are roughly 1,200 ISIS fighters in the Philippines, 40 of which are from Indonesia. (Straits Times)

Bahrain court axes main secular opposition group. Bahrain officials have “ordered the dissolution” of the National Democratic Action Society (Waad), a primary secular opposition group to the regime, for “advocating violence, supporting terrorism and incitement to encourage crimes”. (BBC)

In the Weeds

More on Iraq:

Blindfolded, bound corpses in Mosul raise concern about extrajudicial killings (Rudaw)
Mosul battle: 'Dozens of civilians killed' fleeing IS-held district (BBC)
Iraq Paramilitary Troops Take Strategic Town West of Mosul (VOA)
On Mosul’s Front Line: A Grueling Battle on Civilian Streets (NYT)
 

More on Syria:

Syrian rebels say Syrian army plane downed east of Damascus (AlArabiya)
Syrian Troops Pound Daraa After Rebel Attack (VOA)