Beyond the Wire - 12 JUL 2017

Your daily briefing on the state of the world and the state of the art for all things Transnational Threats. 

Flournoy and Fontaine on Afghanistan.

CNAS’ Michèle Flournoy and Richard Fontaine assert that the United States must avoid withdrawing from the conflict and instead maintain a “clear and sustained American commitment” to the country to improve its leverage over insurgent groups. The two argue that the U.S. military must 1) support a political strategy that eventually forces insurgents to the table, 2) bolster the training and advising effort, 3) attenuate Pakistani assistance to militants that undermine U.S. objectives. (TNT Comment: The United States is still reviewing its comprehensive strategy in Afghanistan. The longer it takes for the United States to release a revised Afghanistan strategy, the more likely the Taliban and Islamic State will continue to consolidate influence in the country. Recently, the Islamic State has taken Tora Bora and the Taliban have attacked a major base in eastern Afghanistan.)


U.S.-Russia ceasefire focuses on deterring Iranian proxies.

A recently brokered ceasefire between the United States and Russia covering southwestern Syria calls for the exclusion of Iranian-backed militias from entering the proposed areas. The pact also calls for the unimpeded access of humanitarian aid workers to the zone and “the creation of conditions for the return of refugees of southwestern Syria,” mainly from Jordan. (TNT Comment: Iran likely aims to cement itself in southwestern Syria—an area where U.S.- and Jordanian-backed opposition groups have significant control and influence—to improve leverage over the United States and its allies. However, it is unlikely Russia will be able impede Iran’s plans, as the Kremlin has repeatedly proven unable or unwilling to control Assad and Iran’s actions in Syria.)

Indonesia bans radical groups.

Indonesian President Joko Widodo signed a decree giving the government the power to outlaw radical organizations within the country. The president stated that the law also seeks to protect the unity of Indonesia rather than serve as “act of government arbitrariness or an attack on Islamic mass organizations.” (TNT Comment: The move comes amidst increasing sectarian tensions in Indonesia and a growing threat from Indonesian foreign fighters returning from Iraq and Syria. TNT Director Tom Sanderson will testify at a House Foreign Affairs Committee testimony today at 1430 on militancy and terrorism in Southeast Asia.)  
 

Significant Activity

China establishes first overseas naval base. In support of peacekeeping and humanitarian operations Africa and the Middle East, China has officially sent troops to occupy a base in Djibouti, Africa. China officially calls the new base a “logistics facility,” stating the deployment did not indicate military expansion. (Reuters)

A strategy for victory in the Middle East. Writing in the Washington Post, David Ignatius argues that for the United States to win militarily in the Middle East, it must use the blueprint from its successful use of local proxies in Iraq and Syria. (WaPo)

Lebanese Army steps up operations against Islamic State. The Lebanese army conducted an operation against the Islamic State, killing a man linked to suicide attacks in Ras Baalbek and arresting a suspected Syrian weapons smuggler. (Reuters)

Secretary of State signs counterterror agreement with Qatar. Despite the diplomatic row between Qatar and several Gulf States, Secretary Tillerson signed an agreement with Qatar aimed at restricting terrorism financing. (WaPo)

State Department and U.S. military divided over working with Kurds. As the fight to retake Raqqa continues to rely heavily on Syrian Kurds, there is a growing divide between the State Department, which is reluctant to back the Kurds, and the military, which believes the Kurds are essential to victory in Raqqa. (Defense One)

Two Americans fighting with YPG killed in Syria. Nicholas Warden and Robert Grodt, two Americans fighting with the YPG in Northern Syria, were killed last week as the Kurdish group continues its push to retake Raqqa from the Islamic State. (WaPo)

17 people killed by suicide bombers in Nigeria. Four Boko Haram suicide bombers in Borno, Nigeria, detonated explosives killing 17 and injuring 21. (VOA)

Why the Islamic State has staying power. Writing for the Associated Press, Lori Hinnant discusses why, despite territorial losses and dwindling finances, the Islamic State will remain a threat long after the fall of its caliphate. (Stars and Stripes)

The monumental task of rebuilding Mosul. After the liberation of the last Islamic State enclaves in Mosul, the Iraqi government must now face the difficult challenge of rebuilding and resettling the country’s second largest city. (WSJ)

Egypt advocates for removal of “terrorism supporters” from anti-Islamic State coalition. During its opening remarks at a security conference in Washington, D.C. the Egyptian delegation officially requested that countries who support terrorism be removed from the global coalition against the Islamic State. (Al Arabiya)

Violence in Mexico skyrockets. Fueled by intra-cartel fighting and criminal power vacuums, homicides, extortion, and kidnapping have returned to record levels. (Cipher Brief)
 

In the Weeds

More on Syria
The border between Turkey and Syria is open for business. Jihadists welcome. (Newsweek)
Syrian Rebels Shoot Down Assad Warplane Near Cease-Fire Zone (Atlantic)
Secret Details of Trump-Putin Syria Cease-fire Focus on Iranian Proxies (Foreign Policy)
 
More on Iraq
Iraq strikes Islamic State in Mosul days after declaring victory (Reuters)
Iraq Celebrates Victory Over ISIS in Mosul, but Risks Remain (NYT)
Mosul: US commander says Iraq must stop Islamic State 2.0 (BBC)