Beyond the Wire - 22 MAY 17

Your daily briefing on the state of the world and the state of the art for all things Transnational Threats.

China dismantles CIA intelligence operation.

A New York Times pieces reports that from 2010 to 2012, the Chinese are believed to have killed or imprisoned around 20 U.S. intelligence sources that worked in various bureaucratic positions in the Chinese government. A joint investigation by the CIA and FBI has not identified how the information got out, although most intelligence officials close to the investigation believe it was either a mole or a hack of the CIA’s classified system. (TNT Comment: The leak has drawn comparisons to the damage inflicted by Robert Hansen and Aldrich Ames that led to the compromise of U.S. sources inside the Soviet Union and Russia. Regardless of how the more recent breach occurred, one single point of failure, whether a mole or a cyber-attack, likely crippled an intelligence network that took years to build.)

Battle for Kunar Province intensifies.

Over the past week, several operations by both the Taliban and Afghan military forces have extended the turbulent battle for control of the province in eastern Afghanistan. Each side has lost more than 20 individuals to fighting. (TNT Comment: Hopes of a peace agreement between the Afghan military and Taliban are dissipating.  Despite the optimism that lifting U.N. sanctions against the war-lord Gulbuddin Hekmatyar would help facilitate a peace deal, Hekmatyar has yet to support any sort of peace process with the Afghan government.)

Saudi military incapable of offensive operations?

Writing in War is Boring, Paul Iddon argues that for decades, despite billions in military aid from the United States, the Saudi military has been incapable of conducting offensive military operations. Citing Ken Pollack, author of Arabs at War, Iddon addresses the fact that the Saudi military focused on a small and versatile Air Force instead of a more conventional ground force. The lack of a robust ground force prevents the Saudis from projecting military power outside of the country’s borders. (TNT Comment: Despite the signing of a new $110 billion deal between the United States and Saudi Arabia, it remains unclear whether Saudi Arabia can answer President Trump’s call to lead an offensive against Islamist extremists in the Middle East.)

Significant Activity

Pentagon confirms targeting Iran-backed forces. The United States used an airstrike to target forces backed by Iran and allied with Assad as they advanced toward a joint U.S.-rebel base near the Jordanian border. U.S. forces have not previously targeted Iranian proxies in Syria. (WaPo)

Hezbollah moves forces on the Lebanese-Syrian border. Despite Hezbollah’s Secretary General Hassan Nasrallah’s announcement that Hezbollah forces were withdrawing from the border region and passing operations to the Lebanese military, local reports indicate Hezbollah is merely repositioning forces in Syria. (LWJ)

Lights out in the Middle East. Robin Wright explains that electricity and power outages play a role in the security and political climates of countries across Arab world. (New Yorker)

United States proposes Deir ez Zour deconfliction plan to Russia. Defense officials declined to detail the proposal which aims to prevent armed conflict between the United States and Russia in Deir ez Zour which the United States believes will be the next major operation in the campaign against the Islamic State. (Military.com)

Turkey’s state of emergency to continue. President Erdogan’s recent referendum victory broadened his powers but the state of emergency, which has been in place since last year’s coup attempt, essentially removes parliamentary oversight. (NYT)

Dereliction of duty? Kori Schake discusses McMaster’s difficulties in balancing his duties as the politically-appointed National Security Advisor with his duties as an active duty military officer. (WOTR)

Mosul expected to be “extremely violent.” Col. Patrick Work, the commanding officer of 2BCT, 82nd Airborne, which oversees the “advise and assist” mission in Mosul, stated that despite coalition successes, the neighborhoods which remain under Islamic State control are likely to be the hardest to retake since the campaign began. (WaPo)

Dostum leaves for Turkey. General Abdul Rashid Dostum, an Afghan-Uzbek warlord turned Vice President, left Afghanistan for Turkey on Friday amid allegations of the rape and kidnapping of a northern elder. Given Dostum’s unstable political position the departure may in fact be an exile. (NYT)

United States stops Iranian, Kurdish road to the sea. Iran shifted its planned Tehran-to-Latakia corridor from Qamishli and Kobane to avoid U.S. forces. The change in plans was strategically important to Turkey and limits Iran’s influence in Syrian Kurdish areas. (Hurriyet)

ISW: De-escalation zones are a trap. Genevieve Casagrande and Ellen Stockert argue that the intent of the de-escalation zones is to constrain U.S. policy options in Syria. (ISW)

Clashes at Tunisian oil fields pose challenge to government. Hundreds of protestors demanded jobs and revenue sharing and forced the closure of two oil pumping stations. The Chahed government in Tunis which has been attempting to implement international economic reforms in Tunisia. (Al Jazeera)

Mark Moyar re-examines Vietnam War. The author delves into the strategic blunders which he argues transformed a winnable war to one in which the U.S. public lost faith in the mission and trust in the military. (NYT)

Series of suicide bombings in West Africa. FDD's Long War Journal discusses a recent uptick in suicide bombings in Nigeria and Cameroon, most which have been carried out by women. (LWJ)

Morocco’s zero tolerance policy for foreign fighters. Although Morocco did not significantly impede individuals who left to fight in Syria, those who return face a harsh crackdown and no access to a rehabilitation or deradicalization program. (Al Monitor)

Colombian court rules pieces of peace agreement unconstitutional. The decision, which rejected measures to fast track the agreement, "opens the door to a return to war," in the eyes of FARC's commander. (Insight Crime)

In Russia, social media manipulates you. Rather than more established forms of cyber-espionage, and beyond the 2016 election, Russia is using social media platforms to influence public opinion in the United States. (Time)

In the Weeds

More on Syria:

The Scramble for Post-ISIS Syria Has Officially Begun (Atlantic)
Clashes in Syrian City of Daraa Despite It Being 'Safe Zone' (US News)
Blasts at Syrian rebel base kill 14 fighters (Al Jazeera)
Syria conflict: Government regains full control of Homs (BBC)