Beyond the Wire - 23 October 2017

Your daily briefing on the state of the world, and the state of the art for all things Transnational Threats. If you are having trouble viewing the interactive map, please click here. We welcome your feedback! Drop us a line at tnt@csis.org.


Middle East and North Africa

Tom Sanderson: Raqqa is Free as ISIS Loses Steam, But Hold Off on The Victory Dance
TNT Director Tom Sanderson states that there are good reasons for not overstating the value of Raqqa’s liberation. Any such triumph must be viewed in the context of a broader, coherent plan to address the many ills afflicting both sides of the Iraq-Syria border. (The Hill)

Opinion: ISIS Fighters Are Not Flooding Back Home to Wreak Havoc as Feared
Some 40,000 fighters from more than 120 countries poured into the battles in Syria and Iraq over the past four years. Of the more than 5,000 Europeans who joined those ranks, as many as 1,500 have returned home, including many women and children, and most of the rest are dead or still fighting. (NY Times)

Opinion: Iran Stands to Benefit From a Post-Caliphate U.S. Withdrawal
In Syria, if the U.S. withdraws, it’s only a matter of time before Iran and its allies assert control over the area once held by ISIS. This would amount to defeating Islamic State so Iran can dominate the region—from Tehran through Iraq to Western Syria and Lebanon. (Wall Street Journal)

YPG Fighters Credit Ocalan with Syria Victory
In a video praising Ocalan’s “ideological power”, the YPG fighters rebuffed U.S. criticism of battle celebrations in Raqqa last week where the YPG’s all-female affiliate, the YPJ, unfurled a banner with his face on it. (Reuters)

"Go Home," Tillerson Tells Iranian-Backed Militias in Iraq
The United States is concerned that Iran, a Shi‘ite regional power, will take advantage of gains against IS in Iraq and Syria to expand the influence it gained after the U.S. invasion in 2003, something Sunni Arab rivals such as Riyadh also oppose. (Reuters)

Islamic State Killed At Least 128 People in Syrian Town
The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights said on Monday that the Islamic State killed at least 128 people in a Syrian town in central Homs over a three-week period before the Syrian army recaptured it on Saturday. (Reuters)

Militants Attack Egypt Police, Dozens Killed
Three security sources said at least 52 police officers and conscripts had been killed in gun battles that erupted in the remote desert, but Egyptian authorities said only 16 men had died when their patrol came under attack. (Reuters)

ISW Intelligence Summary of the Situation in Iraq and Syria: October 13-20
Conflict in northern Syria remains likely due to the dominant role of the Syrian Kurdish YPG in the Raqqa operation and its commitment to shaping post-ISIS governance. Russia, Iran, and the Syrian regime are meanwhile preparing to cut a deal with the YPG for the future governance of northeastern Syria, which could oust the U.S. (ISW)


Sub-Saharan Africa

At Least 12 Nigerien Troops Killed in Latest Attack
At least a dozen paramilitary police have been killed in an attack similar to the one that killed four U.S. Green Berets and four Nigerien troops Oct. 4. Saturday’s attack took place in the same area in the town of Ayorou, about 200 kilometers northwest of the capital, Niamey. (VOA)

Suicide Bomber Kills 13 Others in Northeast Nigerian City
The evening attack, which also injured five people, struck the city’s Muna Garage area. The area is home to a camp for just some of the more than 2 million people who have fled fighting with the Boko Haram Islamist insurgency, which has left over 20,000 dead. (Reuters)

Roadside Bomb Kills Seven Outside Somali Capital Mogadishu
A roadside bomb killed at least seven people on Sunday - mostly women farmers - in an area outside the Somali capital dominated by Islamist insurgents who have defied public protests to end years of violence, residents and the army said. (Reuters)


East Asia and the Pacific

Comments from Secretary Mattis En Route to the Republic of the Philippines
The Secretary will be at the ASEAN meeting with regional counterparts: Japan, the Republic of Korea, Philippines of course, India, Indonesia, and Malaysia to discussing regional security issues. (DOD)

Australia To Tighten Airport Security Further After Foiled Attack
Australia will introduce random searches of workers entering and inside its airports as it increases security after a recent foiled terrorism plot. (Reuters)


South and Central Asia

A Newly Assertive C.I.A. Expands Its Taliban Hunt in Afghanistan
The assignment marks a shift for the C.I.A. in the country, where it had primarily been focused on defeating Al Qaeda and helping the Afghan intelligence service. The C.I.A. has traditionally been resistant to an open-ended campaign against the Taliban, the primary militant group in Afghanistan. (NY Times)

Leader of Jamaat-ul-Ahrar Emerges After Reports of His Death
Omar Khalid Khurasani, the emir of the Pakistani Taliban faction known as Jamaat-ul-Ahrar (JuA), issued a statement today just days after the group’s spokesman told Agence France-Presse he was killed in a US airstrike in Afghanistan. The release of the statement under Khurasani’s name on the group’s official Telegram account was an all but explicit denial of his death. (Long War Journal)


Western Hemisphere

SIGAR: Alarming Rate of Afghan Trainees in the U.S. are Going AWOL
A new report from the Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction (SIGAR) revealed that 50 percent of all foreign military personnel that went AWOL (“Absent Without Leave”) while receiving training in the US since 2005 were from Afghanistan. (Long War Journal)

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