Beyond the Wire - 29 January 2018

Your daily briefing on the state of the world, and the state of the art for all things Transnational Threats. We welcome your feedback! Drop us a line at tnt@csis.org.

South and Central Asia

Suicide Bomber in Ambulance Kills At Least 95, Wounds 158
A suicide bomber detonated an ambulance packed with explosives outside a hospital in central Kabul Saturday, officials said, killing at least 95 people and wounding 158. It was the third major attack in Afghanistan in the past week and one of the deadliest in the shell-shocked capital. (Washington Post)

Eleven Afghan Soldiers Killed in Latest Attack in Kabul
Five gunmen attacked an army outpost near one of Afghanistan’s main military academies on Monday and 11 soldiers were killed and 15 wounded before the attackers were subdued, the defense ministry said. (Reuters)

Analysts: Battle for Kabul Has Begun
While the Trump administration has doubled its troop level in Afghanistan to 16,000, the U.S. Central Command led by Gen. Joseph Votel has dispatched military advisers that are guiding Afghan forces to stay on the offensive before the fighting season with the Taliban begins in spring. (VOA News)

Why Attack Afghan Civilians? Creating Chaos Rewards Taliban
As American-led forces have escalated in response to Taliban gains, they have unintentionally pushed the Taliban toward grislier violence. Airstrikes have forced the Taliban to lie low in rural areas, where they prefer to operate, seizing territory and extorting from locals. Instead, they have shifted toward terrifying if brief guerrilla-style attacks in Kabul and other urban districts, where American air power is of little use. (New York Times)

Kashmir: The Politics of Interlocutors
The situation in Kashmir is becoming all the more dire. Though New Delhi seems to have exhausted all its options in Kashmir—from harsh measures like NIA raids to sponsoring national tours for the youth and cricket tournaments—2017 nevertheless saw a steady increase in the number of young Kashmiri boys resorting to militancy. (The Diplomat)

Political Islam and Islamist Terrorism in Bangladesh: What You Need to Know
BJeI, Bangladesh’s largest Islamist party, aims to transform Bangladesh into an Islamic country. The BJeI has attracted episodic international scrutiny since 2001 due to its deep involvement in numerous terror attacks targeting Hindus, Ahmedis, and AL and liberal activists in Bangladesh. (Lawfare)

Taliban’s Threat Forces Dozens of Families to Flee Farah Province in Afghanistan
Internally-displaced families accuse the Taliban overrunning a number of Afghan security check posts and killing Afghan soldiers on a daily bases and say the province is on the verge of collapse. The unrest and the recent protests in Farah prompted provincial governor Mohammad Arif Shah Jahan to step down January 25. He said he quit to preserve "unity among the residents of the province.” (VOA News)

Sub-Saharan Africa

Ambush on Mali Army Camp Leaves 14 Soldiers and 17 Attackers Dead
The spokesman, Col. Diarran Kone, said that after the attack in the Timbuktu region, the bodies of 17 assailants were left at the scene and the base was once again under the control of the Malian military. In the years since, they have staged frequent attacks on the military as well as on United Nations peacekeeping forces that are trying to stabilize the country. (New York Times)

Middle East and North Africa

Lebanon Issues Arrest Warrant for Iran-backed Iraqi Militia Commander
Lebanese judicial authorities have issued an arrest warrant for Qais al-Khazali, the leader of Iran-backed Iraqi militia group called Asa’ib Ahl al-Haq. (Middle East Institute)

US Military Aid to Egypt Under Scrutiny On Uprising’s Anniversary
The Donald Trump administration has taken a harder line on military assistance to Egypt as President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi moves away from Washington. (Al-Monitor)

Revolutionary Guards, Islamic State Fighters Clash in West Iran
A team of 21 Islamic State fighters were tracked after they crossed Iran’s western border before being attacked by the Guards, the most powerful military force in the Islamic Republic, according to Sepah News, the Guards’ official news site. (Reuters)

Al Qaeda Head Blames Islamists for Failure of Arab Uprisings
Zawahiri speaks on the seventh anniversary of the Arab uprisings, which began in several countries in late 2010 and early 2011. His message is titled, “Seven Years Later, Where is the Salvation?” Zawahiri complains that “all of the revolutions were suppressed except Syria, which entered the spiral of international solutions,” meaning that powerful nations are now dictating the course of events. (Long War Journal)

Guns for Hire: How al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula Is Securing Its Future in Yemen
AQAP has become more pragmatic and continues to de-prioritize ideology—at least in terms of its day-to-day operations—in favor of building alliances, recruiting and training capable fighters and enhancing access to revenue streams. AQAP has learned from its own mistakes and from those of Islamic State (IS) in Syria and Iraq—ideology might win recruits, but it rarely wins wars. (Jamestown Foundation)

Western Hemisphere

Colombia Struggles to Accept Guerrillas' New Political Role
Rodrigo Londono has been convicted of bombing police stations, kidnapping politicians and forcing children to join his guerrilla group, the Revolutionary Armed Forces of Colombia, or FARC. With Londono – more widely known by his war name of Timochenko — as its candidate, the FARC will participate in a presidential race for the first time since the group was founded in the 1960s. (Deutsche Welle)

Colombia Police Station Bombing Kills Five and Injures Dozens
Officials said the attack was probably in retaliation for a crackdown on drug trafficking and organised crime. It is believed the device was detonated remotely, possibly having been planted earlier. One 31-year-old suspect has already been arrested, Colombia's office of the attorney-general said. (BBC)

East Asia and the Pacific

Philippines on Guard vs Militants’ Fresh Moves in Mindanao
Presidential Communications Secretary Martin Andanar mentioned Hamza bin Laden, who is seen as al-Qaeda’s rising star, to illustrate how the Islamic militants are using their resources to fund the extremists’ terrorist activities and recruit followers in many countries, including the Philippines. Following Duterte’s resolve to stop extremism in Mindanao and the quelling of the Marawi City rebellion, Andanar said the government is ready to face head-on the continuing challenges brought about by terror groups. (PhilStar)

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