Beyond the Wire - 31 January 2018

Your daily briefing on the state of the world, and the state of the art for all things Transnational Threats. We welcome your feedback! Drop us a line at tnt@csis.org.

 

Middle East and North Africa

Hezbollah Goes on the Cyber Offensive with Iran’s Help
Maturing under Tehran’s tutelage, Hezbollah’s hackers are quickly learning the art of cyber warfare. The formidable militant organization is increasingly turning its attention to the digital realm to engage in espionage, psychological operations, disruption of critical services and criminal activity to fund its activities on the ground. (Cipher Brief)
 
Iran-Backed Iraqi Militias May Send Reinforcements to Syria
The chief commander of Iraq’s Popular Mobilization Units has said that the paramilitary forces are ready to go to Syria to fight ISIS and defend Iraq’s borders, Iranian and Lebanese media reported. (Middle East Institute)
 
Bahrain Sentences 58 on Terrorism Charges
The ruling is the latest in a series of scores of harsh penalties in the Western-allied Gulf kingdom for defendants accused of Iranian-backed militancy but who activists say are mostly peaceful opposition members. (Reuters)
 
Yemen Separatists Seize Southern Military Base
Abdelnaser al-Wali, the head of the separatists’ local council in Aden, said separatists now controlled much of the city’s military and administrative infrastructure. That includes, he said, the main gate of the presidential palace, the central bank headquarters and the Jabal Hadeed military base, a complex on a hill overlooking Aden’s coastline and port. (Wall Street Journal)
 
ISIS Is Weakened, but Iraq Election Could Unravel Hard-Won Stability
This is a crucial moment for Iraq as it gears up for an election that could undo its hard-fought gains. The vote could also reshape the influence of Iran across the Middle East and determine the likelihood of a resurgent Islamic State. (New York Times)
 

South and Central Asia

Pakistan Launches Application to Combat Cyberextremism
Officials are optimistic that Surfsafe will help them rein in websites that promote extremist ideologies. The application is part of the implementation of the National Action Plan, a 20-point strategy adopted by Pakistan in 2015 to crack down on terrorism and extremism in the country. (VOA)
 
Taliban Active in 70 percent of Afghanistan
The BBC estimate, which it said was based on conversations with more than 1,200 individual sources in all districts of the South Asian country, was significantly higher than the most recent assessment by the NATO-led coalition. (Reuters)
 
Pakistan Recommends Five-month Extension for Afghan Refugees
Pakistan is home to the world’s second-largest refugee population, with a total of 2.5 million Afghans, many of whom been living there since the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan in 1979. But relations between the neighbors have deteriorated in recent years and took another turn for the worse this week after bloody Taliban attacks in Kabul. Afghanistan and the United States say Taliban and other militants plot carnage in safe havens on the Pakistani side of the border and have repeatedly called on Pakistan to do more to rein them in. (Reuters)
 
Afghan Spy Chief Visits Pakistan in Wake of Kabul Attacks
The visit comes amid anger in Afghanistan over an attack on a luxury hotel and a car bomb in the capital, Kabul, that killed more than 120 people, which the government has blamed on Haqqani network militants believed to operate out of Pakistan. (Reuters)
 
Blast Kills At Least Six Family Members In Northwestern Pakistan
Pakistani officials say at least six members of a family were killed when an explosion ripped through a car in a northwestern region near the Afghan border. (Gandhara)

 

Europe and Eurasia

Brainwashed' Children of Islamist Fighters Worry Germany-spy Chief
Nearly 1,000 people are believed to have left Germany to join up with the Islamist militants. As the group’s presence in the Middle East crumbles, some are returning with family members. (Reuters)
 
Russia's Plan for Syria Collapses in Sochi
Russia’s effort to secure a diplomatic “end” to the Syrian civil war that preserves Syrian president Bashar al Assad failed. Russia’s “Syrian National Dialogue Congress” concluded in Sochi on January 30th without meaningful progress. Russia’s failure reflects the limits of its leverage in Syria and demonstrates the futility of looking to Russia for diplomatic solutions in the Middle East and North Africa. (Institute for the Study of War)
 
Turkey Escalates against Pro-Assad Forces to Protect Afrin Operation
The Assad regime and Iran attacked Turkish forces that deployed into Syria with apparent Russian permission to establish a blocking position near a critical front line south of Aleppo City. Turkey’s goal was to deter Assad and Iran from providing military support to Kurdish forces defending Afrin against a Turkish offensive. Turkish forces stopped short of their objective after coming under fire and it is unclear whether they will resume their advance. Iran and Assad are acting as spoilers to demonstrate that Russia cannot fully control them. (Institute for the Study of War)
 
Turkey’s Erdogan Wages a Dangerous War on Many Fronts
Since Jan. 20, Turkish forces and Turkish-backed militias have been engaged in battles with Syrian Kurds holding an enclave called Afrin, northwest of the Syrian city of Aleppo. Turkish authorities say they are fighting units that are an extension of the PKK, a violent Kurdish separatist group in Turkey that's seen by both Ankara and Washington as a terrorist organization. (Washington Post)
 
 

Western Hemisphere

Hezbollah, Drugs, and the Obama Administration: A Closer Look at a Damning Politico Piece
The DEA comes across as hard-charging and eager to make Hezbollah pay for its crimes. The State Department, the CIA, the Justice Department and the White House are all, in different ways, bad guys who shot down the DEA’s efforts. In some cases, the DEA was able to circumvent them, working with U.S. allies overseas that were more responsive to the agencies objectives than their own government was. But for the most part, elements of the U.S. national security community stymied the DEA and allowed Hezbollah and its allies to escape serious penalties. (Lawfare)
 
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