China’s emergence as a global economic superpower and as a major regional military power in Asia and the Pacific, has had a major impact on its relations with the United States and its neighbors. China was the driving factor in the new strategy the United States announced in 2012 that called for the U.S. to “rebalance” its forces to Asia-Pacific region. At the same time, China’s actions on its borders, in the East China Sea, and in the South China Sea have shown that China is steadily expanding its geopolitical role in the Pacific, and having a steadily increasing impact on the strategy and military developments in other Asian powers.
As a result, the People’s Republic of China (PRC), the United States, and China’s neighbors face a critical need to improve their understanding of how each state in the region is developing its military power, and find ways to avoid the kind of military competition that could lead to rising tension or conflict.
The final review draft of a new study by the Burke Chair examines China military forces and modernization from this perspective. It is entitled Chinese Strategy and Military Power: A Comparative Analysis, and is available on the CSIS web by clicking on the above pdf, or at http://csis.org/files/publication/150901_Chinese_Mil_Bal.pdf.
This study is intended to support such a dialogue between China, the United States, and other key Asian powers. It focuses on the current developments in China’s military strategy, forces, and modernization, but does in the context of how they are influencing U.S. strategy and force development, the reactions of Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. It also focuses on how Chinese military developments affect the rising tensions in areas like the East China Sea, South China Sea, and Taiwan.
The study is not meant to provide a given view of Chinese strategy, Chinese forces, or the trends in the regional military balance. It is rather intended to provide analysts with a better basis for understanding the different official estimates of the changes in Chinese force strength and force quality. Accordingly, it makes extensive comparisons of the assessments of Chinese military developments in official reporting by the US, China, and other Asian governments.
In doing so, it relies heavily on Chinese white papers and the US Department of Defense (DoD) Report to Congress on Military and Security, as well as the military white papers of Japan, South Korea, and Taiwan. Key portions compare these different perspectives to work done by outside scholars and the information in databases like those developed by the IISS and IHS Jane’s.
This draft is being circulated for final comment before publication as a CSIS be book, and any suggested changes and additions will be most welcome. Please send them to Anthony, Cordesman at acordesman@gmail.com.
Table of Contents
Chapter 1: Evolving Strategies In The China-U.S. Military Balance
Chinese Strategy
Key Trends in Chinese Military Modernization
China’s View of Its Strategic Position Relative to the United States
Putting China in Perspective: America’s Developing Strategy in Asia
The U.S. Shift to “Rebalancing” to Asia in 2012
Secretary of Defense Panetta’s Summary of U.S. Views of China at the Shangri-La Dialogue in 2012
Secretary of Defense Hagel’s Summary at Shangri-La Dialogue in 2013
The 2014 U.S. Quadrennial Defense Review
Secretary Ashton Carter’s Speech in May 2015
The 2015 Asia-Pacific Maritime Security Strategy
The Chinese Response
Competition and Cooperation
Chapter 2: Assessing China’s Armed Forces
China’s Defense White Papers
The 2010 White Paper
The 2013 White Paper
The 2015 White Paper
US Defense White Papers on China’s Strategy and Forces
The U.S. View of Chinese Strategy
Strategy, Modernization, and Shifts that Affect the U.S. Role in Asia
Disputes Over the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands and South China Sea
Relations Between China and India
Counter-Space Strategies
Building an “Informationized” Military
The Strategic Forces Driving Chinese Military Modernization
“Defensive” Force Modernization and Transformation versus “Offensive” Force Modernization and Transformation
Chapter 3: Underlying Resources for China’s Security Capabilities
Is Becoming an Economic Superpower a Prelude to Becoming a Military Superpower?
The Economic Trends Shaping Military Spending
Downward Economic Growth Trends but Stable Forecast
Economic Uncertainties and Risks
Shorter Term Risks
Longer-Term Risks
Chinese Economic Growth Relative to Increases in Military Spending
Factors that May Impact China’s Military Spending, Strategy and Modernization
Inflation
FDI and Current Account Balance
Demographic Trends
Societal Trends and Economic Transformation
Chapter 4: Estimates of Chinese Military Spending
Chinese Statements on Military Spending
US Analyses of Chinese Defense Budgets
Other Outside Assessments of Chinese Military Spending
Limited Transparency and Problems in Estimating Chinese Military Expenditures
The Chinese Response
Chapter 5: Chinese Strategy and PLA Military Doctrine
Chinese Strategic Doctrine
Active Defense
Local War under Conditions of Informatization
People’s War
Chinese Campaign Doctrine
Integrated Joint Operations
Information Warfare
US Views on Chinese Cyber Activities
Integrated Firepower Operations
Mobility and Comprehensive Support
Service Strategy
The Nine-Dash Line
Chinese Actions to Establish Control within the First Island Chain
The US View
Japanese and South Korean Perspectives on the Balance
Putting China’s Strategy and Actions in Perspective
Chapter 6: Chinese Military Organization
PLA Military Organization
Organization of the PLA
Operational Command Levels
PLA Army (PLAA)
PLA Navy (PLAN)
PLA Air Force (PLAAF)
PLA Second Artillery Force (SAF)
The Organization of the Chinese Security and Paramilitary Forces
Ministry of State Security (MSS)
Ministry of Public Security (MPS)
People’s Armed Police Force (PAPF)
PLA Organizational Reforms
Reforming Military Regions and Force Groupings for Joint Operations
Continued Importance of Improving Training and Education
The 5 New Leading Small Groups Spearhead Reform
The Broader anti-Corruption Campaign
The Chinese View on the Current State of the PLA in Relation to Local Wars and Joint Operations
Chapter 7: Force Changes and Trends in Total Personnel
Shifts in Total Personnel
Personnel Share by Service and Force Element
Shifts in the PLA’s Personnel System
Rebalancing the Personnel System
Recruiting High-Level Human Capital into the PLA
Creating Opportunities for Increased Qualification
Greater Compensation for PLA Personnel
Shifts in Reserve and Militia Force Structure
PLA Reserve Forces
PLA Militia Forces
Shifts in the Personnel of the Chinese Security and Paramilitary Forces
Ministry of State Security (MSS)
Ministry of Public Security (MPS)
People’s Armed Police Force (PAPF)
Chapter 8: Broad Patterns in PLA Modernization and the Role of Arms and Technology Imports and Exports
The US Intelligence Community’s Assessment
Uncertain Patterns of Change
PLA Training Practices: A Critical Aspect of Modernization
Joint Operations
Focus on C4ISR and Information Technology
Amphibious Operations
Arms Trade and Technology Transfer: The Role of Imports
Arms Trade and Technology Transfer: The Role of Exports
Putting China’s Arms Exports in Context
Tracking the Trends in Chinese Arms Transfers
Arms Trade and Technology Transfer: The Role of Espionage
Chapter 9: The PLA Army
Shifts in Force Structure
Shifts in Personnel
Trends in Equipment
Trends in MBTs, AIFV/APCs, Artillery, and Multiple Rocket Launchers (MRLs)
Equipment Modernization
The US Official View of PLAA Modernization
The Japanese Official View of PLAA Modernization
Shifts in Training, Readiness, and the Capability to “Fight Local Wars”
The PLAA and Power Projection
The PLAA in Comparison to Regional Militaries and the US
Chapter 10: The PLA Navy
PLAN Strategy and Developments
The US Official View of PLAN Developments
The Japanese Official View of PLAN Developments
Shifts in Force Structure, Equipment Composition, and Personnel
Shifts in Force Structure, Personnel, and Force Size
PLAN Modernization
China’s Submarine Modernization
China’s Surface Vessels and “Blue Water” Modernization
China’s Other Maritime Forces
Major Combatant Holdings
Shifts in Personnel
The PLAN and Power Projection
The Chinese View
The US Reaction and the Air Sea Battle
Chapter 11: PLA Air Force
PLAAF Strategy and Developments
Shift in Force Structure
The Pace of Modernization
Key Aspects of Equipment Modernization
Anti-Access/Area Denial (A2/AD)
Stealth
Other Advanced Fighters and Carrier Aircraft
UAVs, Drones, and Other Advanced ISR
Shifts in Personnel
Chapter 12: The PLA Second Artillery Force and Developing Space Capabilities
SAF Strategy and Developments
The US Official View and the Growth of China’s Precision Strike Capability
Shifts in Force Structure, Equipment Composition, and Personnel
Shifts in Equipment Composition
SRBMs
Cruise Missiles
MRBMs
ICBMs and SLBMs
Chinese Missile Defense Capabilities
Improved Personnel
Chinese Space Strategy and Developments
Other Military Developments
Chinese Counterspace and ASAT Capabilities
Anti-Access/Area Denial Sea-based Space Programs
Anti-Access/Area Denial Land-based Space Programs
Chapter 13: China’s Nuclear Forces and Weapons of Mass Destruction
Chinese Military Nuclear Strategy
Change and Missile Defense
Multiple Independently-Targetable Re-entry Vehicles (MIRV)
The Strategic Nuclear Balance
Assessments of China’s Nuclear Forces
The Nuclear Threat Initiative (NTI) Estimate
The Bulletin of the Atomic Scientists Estimate
The Global Security Estimate
The Union of Concerned Scientists (UCS) Estimate
The Federation of American Scientists (FAS) Estimate
The United States Nuclear Posture
The U.S. Force on Russia at a Time of Rising Chinese Capability
North and South Korea
India and Pakistan
Chinese Biological and Chemical Weapons
Chapter 14: Chinese Military Modernization and the Taiwan Strait Military Balance
The Historical Context
Taiwan and Other Flashpoints
Chinese Military Strategy in the Taiwan Strait
Taiwanese Military Strategy
The US Perspective on the China-Taiwan Balance
The Japanese Perspective of the China-Taiwan Balance
U.S. Data on the Historical Trends in the Taiwan Strait Military Balance
The Naval Balance
The Air and Missile Balance
The Ground Force Balance
Chapter 15: US and China: Strategic Competition or Cooperation in the Pacific, IOR, and South China Sea
The Broader Context of China’s Security and Strategic Interests
Strategic Rivalry versus Grand Strategy
Rivalry in Southeast Asia: A Case Study
China’s Declared Strategy and Competition with the U.S. Affecting the Pacific and the IOR
Chinese Defense White Paper Views of the Challenges from the U.S.
The Chinese Defense White Paper View of the Challenges in Asia
The Strategic Impact of China’s Dependence on Energy Imports
Gulf Energy Exports are China’s Main Strategic Interest
China’s Real World Strategic Interests in the East China Sea
China’s Real World Strategic Interests in the East China Sea
Chokepoints and Shipments from the Gulf are the Key Strategic Issue
The Expanding Role of Chinese Forces
The Impact of China’s Shift to a “Blue Water” Navy
Chinese Naval Modernization and its Impact on Nearby Waters, the Pacific and the IOR
Chinese Naval Forces in the IOR
The Expanding Role of Chinese Air Forces
Expanding PLAFF Strike and Power Projection Capabilities
A2/AD and Stealth Capabilities
Expanding Chinese Naval, Air, and Land-based Missile Forces
Chinese Claims to the South China Sea
Defining the Nine Dash Line and China’s Claims
2015 Land Reclamation Operations and Increasing Tensions in the South China Sea
Chinese Actions to Establish Control within the First Island Chain
The Successor to the Nine Dash Line?
Chapter 16: US and China: U.S. “Rebalancing” and THE CHINESE REACTION
U.S. “Rebalancing” to Asia
“Rebalancing” in 2012
“Rebalancing” in 2013
Secretary Hagel’s Summary in April 2014
“Rebalancing” in 2015
The FY2016 Shift to Global Rebalancing and a Focus on Force Cuts
Shifts from FY2013 to FY2016
US Force Strength in the Pacific: The US Pacific Command (PACOM)
The 2015 PACOM Posture Statement
U.S. Force Strength in the Gulf: The US Central Command
Shifts in U.S. Power Projection The US Air Sea Battle or JAM-GC
Defining the Air-Sea Battle in 2013
Tensions and the Potential for Conflict in the Pacific and IOR
Tensions between China and Asia States
Timelines and Incidents
China’s View of Disputes with Japan Involving the Senkaku/Diaoyu Islands
China’s View of Disputes with Japan Involving the East China Sea
US and Chinese “Incidents”
The Japanese Response and the ADIZ Debate
The Japanese Reinterpretation of the Its Constitution and Collective Self Defense
The Impact of Shifts in US and Chinese Strategy and Forces in the Pacific and IOR
The Asian States
The Broader Strategic Impact of Chinese Military Modernization
Cooperation, Competition, or Conflict
