Combatting Al Qaeda After Bin Laden

Part of the 2012 Global Forecast

2011 was a bad year for al Qaeda. U.S. commandos killed its leader, Osama bin Laden, along with many senior figures in Pakistan and elsewhere. Arab populations kicked out dictators in Tunisia and Egypt without using al Qaeda’s violent, religion-infused playbook. In South Asia, continuing negotiations to end the war in Afghanistan could marginalize Ayman al Zawahiri and his foreign fighters. “Dismantling and defeating” al Qaeda seemed to be within our grasp as 2011 came to a close.

These victories, coupled with internal budget pressures, are now more than ever creating a new way of thinking about the threat al Qaeda poses. A resource- constrained government—and a war-weary American population—want to cut expensive counterterrorism operations. U.S. forces will depart Afghanistan in less than two years and are already gone from Iraq, leaving fewer American targets in sensitive areas. Many feel it is time to move on.

Thomas M. Sanderson