Photo: CSIS
Jon Alterman: Dalia Hatuqa is an independent journalist focusing on Palestinian-Israeli domestic politics. She's published widely in leading outlets around the world. Dalia, welcome to Babel.
Dalia Hatuqa: Thank you for having me.
Jon Alterman: Palestine's last presidential elections were 18 years ago. Its legislative elections were 17 years ago. When we talk about Palestinian politics, in this kind of system, what are we talking about?
Dalia Hatuqa: Basically, Mahmoud Abbas has been at the helm of the Palestinian authority for many, many years. His health isn't very well. He's a smoker, in true Middle Eastern fashion. It also seems that he doesn't really relate to what people want or need.
The fact that we've been seeing the emergence of so many armed groups with some polls suggesting that people support these groups, shows the kind of overwhelming feeling the exists in the West Bank. People no longer believe in the Palestinian Authority. They don't believe in its capacity to do anything. The whole idea behind the Palestinian Authority was that it was temporary, and it was supposed to lead to a Palestinian state. Not only has a Palestinian state not been founded, but there are half a million Israeli settlers rampaging through the West Bank. Nobody's stopping them.
There is a video of Mohammad Shtayyeh, the Palestine prime minister, where he tries to talk about the fires that the Israeli settlers had set in the West Bank, specifically in the villages of Turmus Aya and Huwara. While he is talking, there is a man yelling right behind him. Shtayyeh asks the man why he’s yelling, and he responds, "My house was burned down." The man goes on to say that the Palestinian Authority have so many security forces with so much money from the Europeans and Americans, yet the security forces do nothing to protect Palestinians or Palestinian residents from settlers.
People are angry, and rightly so, and they've been angry for quite a long time.
At the end of the day, that's why people support these groups that aren't really affiliated with the traditional factions. The traditional factions are under Abbas's wing, so to speak, because he controls the Palestine Liberation Organization’s (PLO) money that is distributed to these factions. It is particularly evident in PLO meetings, where these factions sit there and rubber stamp whatever Abbas has to say.
Jon Alterman: For many young Palestinians, Mahmoud Abbas is the only Palestinian president they've ever known. The Palestinian Authority, for an even larger number of Palestinians, is the only governance body they've ever lived under. What is their attitude toward politics, government, and their own future?
Dalia Hatuqa: From talking to a lot of younger people, I get a sense that they don't see a future. A lot of people want to leave the West Bank, especially in Gaza, where the Gaza strip is under siege by Israel and Egypt. They definitely do not see their own aspirations and dreams in this man who's almost 90. He doesn't speak to them. I don't remember the last time he was on the street talking to people.
The younger generation will tell you that this man doesn't mean anything to them. They're thinking about who will be next, and unfortunately, people don't believe that there is a proper method or process that will bring about a new president for the Palestinian Authority.
Jon Alterman: Who is going to have a say in succession to Mahmoud Abbas?
Dalia Hatuqa: We don't know. A lot of fingers are being pointed at Hussein al-Sheikh, who's his right-hand man. He seems to be getting groomed for the position of Palestinian Authority president. I don't know if Mahmoud Abbas has a say in it. The Israelis and Americans might have a say. He's definitely not the right person for the job as far as Palestinians are concerned. Palestinians want real elections and not for Fatah to take over like it always does. At the same time, Hamas is trying to make use of this volatile situation to gain political points. The Hamas block won at the elections of Birzeit University, and these university elections are usually markers of wider feelings.
Jon Alterman: According to a June survey by the Palestinian Center for Palestinian Survey Research, two-thirds of Palestinians polled said Israel won't celebrate its centenary in 25 years. This would probably come as a surprise to most of our listeners. You spent a lot of time talking to Palestinians. How should they understand those poll results?
Dalia Hatuqa: It's a reflection of frustration more than anything. Palestinians are tired and they do not see a future. Maybe it's wishful thinking. At the end of the day, it's a sign of frustration because there is nothing out there that's working out for Palestinians. Quite frankly, I've talked to a lot of Palestinians, and I don't think people want to see the demise of Israelis. They are tired of the structure of the system that's basically killing their kids and taking their homes. They just want to see a ray of hope somewhere.
Jon Alterman: Certainly, one of the things that many Palestinians must find frustrating is this rising trend of normalization in the Arab world of governments that want to have relations with Israel. It diminished attention that Palestine gets in Arab media. How does that affect Palestinians?
Dalia Hatuqa: Palestinians know that this is something that the governments themselves are doing, and not the actual people. For example, at the World Cup, Palestinian flags were raised everywhere, and people did not embrace the Israelis that were visiting or the Israeli media. I'm a firm believer that the Arab people are very much interested in what happens in Palestine. The Abraham Accords paved the way for the normalization of ties between Israel and the UAE, Bahrain, Morocco, and Sudan and was hailed as a major regional breakthrough. A lot of people say this is proof that Arabs are losing interest in the struggle, but honestly, I don't believe that it's true for normal everyday citizens.
These normalization deals reflect top-level elite’s interests in the region. When you talk to Arabs all around the region, you see that people are not interested in the Abraham Accords. They're not interested in the fact that their governments are inking these agreements. At the end of the day, how much could they really say? How far could they be open about saying how they feel? You won't be able to get much out of people when they're afraid of the repressive regimes they live in.
Jon Alterman: Do you think that this normalization trend matters for the future of Palestinians?
Dalia Hatuqa: It matters in the fact that it could expand. Definitely, the Israelis and the Americans have their eyes on Saudi Arabia and for years most Arab governments conditioned normalization with Israel on the advent of a separate Palestinian state. The process to create the state has effectively collapsed. Now there is this extremely far right government in Israel and most of the government opposes any scenarios in which Palestinian statehood could be viable. The Arab people are against the occupation, but Arab governments are intent on obscuring the political priorities of Palestinians, and how their citizens view Palestine as well.
Jon Alterman: From the perspective of Palestinian self-determination, does increased diplomatic relations between Israel and Arab governments hold that back, advance it, not make any difference at all? How would you judge the impact?
Dalia Hatuqa: It’s not a positive thing. Normalization takes away from Palestinians that used to be their trump card. Once all the Arab states normalize relations with Israel, the Palestinians are going to lose. As I said, as long as the ordinary people are opposed to it then there should be more leeway in terms of what the normalization process could do.
Jon Alterman: How would you judge the likelihood of a third intifada? You talked about the growing frustration, the sense of hopelessness. How likely do you think a third intifada is, and what do you expect it would look like? What would its results be?
Dalia Hatuqa: I don't think there's going to be a third intifada. Since 2014, there have been talks about a third intifada. I've written maybe half a dozen stories about possible third intifadas. As long as the Palestinian Authority is working against its own people, cracking down on them, and using all the money that is being pumped into the security forces to ensure that kids do not go outside of military installations or checkpoints and do not throw stones, then there's not going to be a third intifada. There will be lone wolf attacks. Jenin and other hubs could become filled with younger men who are armed and want to do something.
Those are the kinds of things that we expect to see, and it's going to be tit-for-tat. Israel’s modus operandi is cracking down on Palestinians, but they still haven't figured out the fact that that does not work. As recently occurred in Jenin, the Israeli army used Apache gunships—which haven’t been used in the West Bank since 2001 and 2002 during the second intifada — in a refugee camp which says a lot about the frustration of the Israeli army. They do not know who these lone attackers are because they are not part of traditional factions, so they resort to general terror tactics. There are the kinds of things that will likely happening. This game of Whack-A-Mole will continue.
This game has been played for a long time. When I see these event, I often feel have a sense of “here we go again.” A lot of Palestinians feel this way. We've seen these things happen and we're going to see them happen again. If Gaza gets sucked in as well, it'll be an even more major event, and the Egyptians will come in and try to mediate and so forth. It happens every year, and it’s so tiring, but it reflects the sense of frustration that people are living in.
Jon Alterman: It's interesting to me that you don't see Hamas being able to capitalize on frustration with Fatah or frustration with living conditions. Hamas has advertised itself as being at the forefront of resistance, and as you said, they've won student elections, yet you don't see them as being the power in waiting amidst the failure of the Palestinian Authority.
Dalia Hatuqa: The Palestinian Authority has done a very good job cracking down on Hamas members in the West Bank—from students to faction leaders. On the one hand, the Palestinian Authority is cracking down on them, and on the other hand Hamas isn't in a position right now to do much because just a couple of months ago Israel attacked Gaza, and there was a whole ordeal with the Islamic Jihad.
Hamas didn't participate in this because honestly, they can't afford to right now. Gaza can't take anymore destruction or death. Hamas is deeply affected by what happens in Gaza, and they have been unable to recuperate or recover in time. That's why they opted to take a step back and not really participate in the onslaught that was taking place between Israel and Islamic Jihad. In the West Bank, they do try to take over areas where residents are frustrated by Fatah, but the crackdown by the Palestinian Authority makes it difficult for them to do so.
Jon Alterman: You've talked about the Egyptians. You've talked about the Israelis. You haven't talked much about the Emirates and other countries that are seen to try to influence Palestinian politics. Certainly, the United States has a role. What countries do you think are going to be able to effectively influence the future shape of Palestinian politics? What countries do you expect are going to try and fail?
Dalia Hatuqa: Egypt and Jordan have historically been the parties that have had the most say in Palestinian politics—Jordan being the custodian of the Islamic and the Christian holy sites in Jerusalem and the trust that overlooks the Al Aqsa compound, where every year especially in Ramadan there's bound to be a flare up. Egypt, obviously, because it's technically controlling the entrance and the exit points of Gaza, but also because they have this love-hate relationship with Hamas. The Qataris do have a say, especially with their financial contributions and relationship with Hamas and the Brotherhood. Quite frankly, I don't see how the Emirates can have a say in what goes on. They are more interested in the relationship with Israel, which is more so based on technology and business.
Jon Alterman: Will the Saudis try to weigh in as they have a more expansive regional policy?
Dalia Hatuqa: The Saudis work behind the scenes, and they work slowly but surely. There might be changes once the current king passes away and MBS takes over as his method will likely be different. The Saudi people are not okay with an outward normalization with the Israelis. So Saudi Arabia is going to tread more carefully in that sense. They will play a role, but it will likely be more behind the scenes and not as outward as Jordan and Egypt’s role.
Jon Alterman: How do you see the United States and Europe—clearly interested over decades in this problem? Do you see them stepping up and playing a role, or do you think they're likely to step back feeling that there's no upside or there's no ability to really steer things in a useful way?
Dalia Hatuqa: The European Union will continue to do what it does best—which is two things: issue condemnations and give out money. I've had many conversations with diplomats, and they keep talking about a two-state solution. There is no two-state solution, but they just keep talking about the same thing because they don't want to deviate from what they've known for the past 20 years.
In terms of the United States, a lot of Palestinians had hope for President Biden to at least roll back some of the policies and changes that the Trump administration had enacted, but unfortunately, he hasn't done any of that. We're in a position, shall we call it a quagmire, where the Americans are going to continue to do the same thing they've always done. That's why Palestinians do not feel like that there is much of a difference if a Democrat or Republican is in office.
The Europeans are going to continue to give out money. The Israelis come and demolish the schools, the homes, and the caravans that the Europeans pay for, and then the Europeans issue a condemnation. We just keep going in the cycle, which is why I sound really frustrated and hopeless. If I feel that way, you should see what ordinary Palestinians say and feel.
Jon Alterman: Is there anything you think we should be hopeful about?
Dalia Hatuqa: That's a very tough question. I don't think so, to be honest with you. Honestly, the only thing that makes me hopeful is the people and how resilient Palestinians are, and how they always come together. They always have this ability to kind of rise from the ashes. It sounds a bit cliche and cheesy, but there is a lot of resilience there. Whether it's something that Palestinians have to do as opposed to want to do, the result is the same. They're trying and aiming for a better life, but there are so many powers working against them.
Jon Alterman:
Dalia Hatuqa, thank you for joining us on Babel.
Dalia Hatuqa: Thank you.