Skip to main content
  • Sections
  • Search

Center for Strategic & International Studies

User menu

  • Subscribe
  • Sign In

   Ranked #1 Think Tank in U.S. by Global Go To Think Tank Index

Topics

  • Climate Change
  • Cybersecurity and Technology
    • Cybersecurity
    • Data Governance
    • Intelligence, Surveillance, and Privacy
    • Military Technology
    • Space
    • Technology and Innovation
  • Defense and Security
    • Counterterrorism and Homeland Security
    • Defense Budget
    • Defense Industry, Acquisition, and Innovation
    • Defense Strategy and Capabilities
    • Geopolitics and International Security
    • Long-Term Futures
    • Missile Defense
    • Space
    • Weapons of Mass Destruction Proliferation
  • Economics
    • Asian Economics
    • Global Economic Governance
    • Trade and International Business
  • Energy and Sustainability
    • Energy, Climate Change, and Environmental Impacts
    • Energy and Geopolitics
    • Energy Innovation
    • Energy Markets, Trends, and Outlooks
  • Global Health
    • Family Planning, Maternal and Child Health, and Immunizations
    • Multilateral Institutions
    • Health and Security
    • Infectious Disease
  • Human Rights
    • Civil Society
    • Transitional Justice
    • Human Security
  • International Development
    • Food and Agriculture
    • Governance and Rule of Law
    • Humanitarian Assistance
    • Private Sector Development
    • U.S. Development Policy

Regions

  • Africa
    • North Africa
    • Sub-Saharan Africa
  • Americas
    • Caribbean
    • North America
    • South America
  • Arctic
  • Asia
    • Afghanistan
    • Australia, New Zealand & Pacific
    • China
    • India
    • Japan
    • Korea
    • Pakistan
    • Southeast Asia
  • Europe
    • European Union
    • NATO
    • Post-Soviet Europe
    • Turkey
  • Middle East
    • The Gulf
    • Egypt and the Levant
    • North Africa
  • Russia and Eurasia
    • The South Caucasus
    • Central Asia
    • Post-Soviet Europe
    • Russia

Sections menu

  • Programs
  • Experts
  • Events
  • Analysis
    • Blogs
    • Books
    • Commentary
    • Congressional Testimony
    • Critical Questions
    • Interactive Reports
    • Journals
    • Newsletter
    • Reports
    • Transcript
  • Podcasts
  • iDeas Lab
  • Transcripts
  • Web Projects

Main menu

  • About Us
  • Support CSIS
    • Securing Our Future
Critical Questions
Share
  • LinkedIn
  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • Email
  • Printfriendly.com

The Death of the DPRK Leader

December 19, 2011

North Korea’s state television Korean Central News Agency made an official announcement that North Korean leader Kim Jong Il died at 8:30am on December 17. The announcement made two days after his death reported that he had died of a massive heart attack caused by stress and overwork while he was on a train for a field tour outside Pyongyang. He was 69 years old. Kim Jong Il suffered a stroke in 2008 and since then has been struggling with feeble health. In late 2010, he anointed his youngest son Kim Jong Eun as his successor. North Korea’s state media said the funeral will be held on December 29, and the mourning period will last for 10 days.

Q1: What is the significance of this event?

A1: This is a watershed moment. Any expert would have told you that the most likely scenario for a collapse of the North Korean regime would be the sudden death of the North Korean leader. We are now in that scenario.

Q2: What will the United States do?

A2: Watch, wait, and prepare. The United States and the Republic of Korea (ROK) have developed military plans for contingencies involving North Korean instability. The first step would be to raise Defcon status. No military actions are warranted at the moment other than to watch and ensure stability on the peninsula and protection of the United States and the Republic of Korea.

Q3: What about China?

A3: China is the only country that has eyes inside of North Korea. The United States and the Republic of Korea have been appealing to China to engage in a dialogue about possible instability in the North since the stroke of Kim Jong Il in 2008. Beijing has been reluctant, but now it has little choice in the matter. Washington, Seoul, and Beijing must stay on the same page.

Q4: Will the youngest son be able to lead North Korea?

A4: It is very hard to say at the moment. Kim Jong Il had 14 years to prepare to take over for his father Kim Il Sung when he died in 1994. Kim Jong Eun has had barely three years. He has had little preparation in cultivating his own followers. He has no new ideology to associate with in his rise to power. I could not think of less ideal conditions—in a North Korean context—under which he could be given the reins of power.

Q5: What about U.S.-DPRK relations and the reports last week that we were headed back to nuclear negotiations?

A5: Everything is on hold now. Last week’s talks about food aid and the possibility this week of another U.S.-DPRK bilateral meeting on the nuclear issue are probably all “OBE”—overtaken by events. These bits of diplomacy constituted small bites at the apple. We are now talking about the whole apple.

For more on the implications of Kim’s death, see Dr. Cha’s article in the latest issue of The Washington Quarterly at http://twq.com/12winter/index.cfm?id=463.

Victor D. Cha holds the Korea Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) in Washington, D.C.

Critical Questions is produced by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a private, tax-exempt institution focusing on international public policy issues. Its research is nonpartisan and nonproprietary. CSIS does not take specific policy positions. Accordingly, all views, positions, and conclusions expressed in this publication should be understood to be solely those of the author(s).

© 2010 by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. All rights reserved.

Written By
  • Twitter
Victor Cha
Senior Adviser and Korea Chair
Media Queries

Contact H. Andrew Schwartz
Chief Communications Officer
Tel: 202.775.3242

Contact Caleb Diamond
Media Relations Manager and Editorial Associate
Tel: 202.775.3173

Related
Defense Strategy and Capabilities, Defense and Security, Geopolitics and International Security, Governance and Rule of Law, International Development, Korea, Korea Chair, Pivot Points: Kim Jong Il's Death

Most Recent From Victor Cha

Upcoming Event
Online Event: Asia Forecast 2021
January 26, 2021
On Demand Event
Online Event: Korea Chair Capital Cable #18
January 22, 2021
On Demand Event
Online Event: The New Biden Era and the Korean Peninsula
January 21, 2021
In the News
Why North Korea could become one of Biden’s biggest challenges
Washington Post | Victor Cha
January 15, 2021
On Demand Event
Online Event: Strategic Shift in Northeast Asia: Future Policies and Strategies
December 28, 2020
In the News
Denuclearizing North Korea: Six Options For Biden
War On The Rocks | Victor Cha
December 22, 2020
Commentary
Preventing a Crisis with North Korea
By Victor Cha
December 17, 2020
On Demand Event
Online Event: Korea Chair "The Capital Cable" #17 with Evan Medeiros and Jiyoon Kim
December 17, 2020
View all content by this expert
Footer menu
  • Topics
  • Regions
  • Programs
  • Experts
  • Events
  • Analysis
  • Web Projects
  • Podcasts
  • iDeas Lab
  • Transcripts
  • About Us
  • Support Us
Contact CSIS
Email CSIS
Tel: 202.887.0200
Fax: 202.775.3199
Visit CSIS Headquarters
1616 Rhode Island Avenue, NW
Washington, DC 20036
Media Queries

Contact H. Andrew Schwartz
Chief Communications Officer
Tel: 202.775.3242

Contact Caleb Diamond
Media Relations Manager and Editorial Associate
Tel: 202.775.3173

Daily Updates

Sign up to receive The Evening, a daily brief on the news, events, and people shaping the world of international affairs.

Subscribe to CSIS Newsletters

Follow CSIS
  • Facebook
  • Twitter
  • LinkedIn
  • YouTube
  • Instagram

All content © 2021. All rights reserved.

Legal menu
  • Credits
  • Privacy Policy
  • Reprint Permissions