Developments in Taiwan

On May 20, Ma Ying-jeou will be inaugurated as the president of Taiwan. This will solidify Kuomintang (KMT) party control of the government, as it previously gained a majority in the legislative Yuan. Ma was elected on a platform that in part emphasized a less confrontational approach to China. While there is an air of optimism in Taipei today, Ma and the KMT will have to ensure that they manage the expectations of their domestic constituency, Chinese officials, and the United States as they move forward.

Q1: Have there been developments since the election that give cause for optimism?

A1: Yes. Despite the fact that Chinese officials still refer to the time between the election and Ma’s inauguration as part of a period of “great danger,” the Chinese appear to be willing to engage in dialog with the incoming administration. Vincent Siew, the vice president elect, attended the Boao Forum for Asia held April 12 on Hainan Island, China. While attending the two-day conference as a private citizen and in his capacity as chairman of the Cross-Strait Common Market Foundation, he was nonetheless accorded a prominent role in the proceedings and met privately with Chinese president Hu Jintao. Sensitive to the need to manage expectations on all sides, Siew described the meeting as focused only on an economic agenda and characterized it as an “ice-melting session.”

Q2: What will be the first significant move to improve cross-strait relations initiated by Ma Ying-jeou?

A2: Consistent with his campaign platform, Ma is expected to lead with economic initiatives that can been viewed as mutually beneficial to each side and at the same time deemphasize the more contentious issues of sovereignty and international space for Taiwan. The first significant move will likely be direct, commercial air travel to China beginning in July of this year. The plan is to start with weekend charter flights with the goal of expanding to other days of the week in the future.

Q3: Will there be second-order effects of these charter flights?

A3: Yes. Though clearly designed to improve economic and cultural ties, these flights will offer additional opportunities to ameliorate cross-strait tension. Currently, aircraft do not pass directly from Taiwanese airspace to Chinese airspace but rather pass through an intermediate controlling agency in either Hong Kong or Japan. The process of ironing out the technical details of these new flight paths will require direct coordination between civilian air control agencies on both sides of the strait and could involve some military-to-military discussions to ensure safety of flight. Coordination such as this would be a good step toward establishing long-discussed, but seldom-realized, confidence-building measures between the two sides.

Daniel Murphy is a commander in the U.S. Navy and a military fellow in the International Security Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, D.C.

Critical Questions is produced by the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a private, tax-exempt institution focusing on international public policy issues. Its research is nonpartisan and nonproprietary. CSIS does not take specific policy positions. Accordingly, all views, positions, and conclusions expressed in this publication should be understood to be solely those of the author(s). The author’s views do not necessarily reflect the views of the U.S. Department of the Navy.

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