DPRK 'Collapse' Pathways: Implications for the Energy Sector and for Strategies of Redevelopment/Support

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Korean Unification - Working Paper Series

The prospect for the DPRK (Democratic People’s Republic of Korea) and its leadership is bleak. Kim Jong Il‘s health is poor, so a succession is conceivable, albeit off unknown probability. There is little chance that the economic poverty of almost all North Koreans will change for the better. The external powers will continue to squeeze the DPRK with sanctions, especially the United States. Hyperinflation is in the cards in the aftermath of the currency redenomination failure. External aid will be minimal so long as the nuclear weapons issue remains unresolved.

Peter Hayes and David Von Hippel