DPRK Missile Test: More in 2018?
Korea Chair Snapshot
November 28, 2017This morning, November 29 at 3:17 AM (KST), North Korea launched an ICBM that traveled about 1,000km eastward before splashing down in the East Sea/Sea of Japan from Pyongsong, South Pyongan province, 75 days since its last missile test.
- The test follows a familiar pattern in that the downturn in frequency of WMD events in the winter months has been well-established (see table below).
- The test is unusual in that it was conducted in the dead of night, perhaps reflecting North Korean concerns about avoiding a U.S. ballistic missile defense intercept.
- ICYMI: On November 22, Predata/ CSIS Beyond Parallel signals predicted the likelihood of a test within the next 14 days despite a lull in North Korean WMD activity since September 15 (last missile test).
- As provocative as yet another missile test may be today, the historical data shows that the significant uptick in testing will come in 2018 1Q and 2Q.