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DPRK Missile Test: More in 2018?

Korea Chair Snapshot

November 28, 2017

This morning, November 29 at 3:17 AM (KST), North Korea launched an ICBM that traveled about 1,000km eastward before splashing down in the East Sea/Sea of Japan from Pyongsong, South Pyongan province, 75 days since its last missile test.

  • The test follows a familiar pattern in that the downturn in frequency of WMD events in the winter months has been well-established (see table below).
  • The test is unusual in that it was conducted in the dead of night, perhaps reflecting North Korean concerns about avoiding a U.S. ballistic missile defense intercept.

  • ICYMI: On November 22, Predata/ CSIS Beyond Parallel signals predicted the likelihood of a test within the next 14 days despite a lull in North Korean WMD activity since September 15 (last missile test).

  • As provocative as yet another missile test may be today, the historical data shows that the significant uptick in testing will come in 2018 1Q and 2Q.
Media Queries
Contact H. Andrew Schwartz
Chief Communications Officer
Tel: 202.775.3242

Contact Paige Montfort
Media Relations Coordinator, External Relations
Tel: 202.775.3173
Related
Asia, Asia Program, Defense and Security, Geopolitics and International Security, Korea, Korea Chair, Korea Chair Publications, Korea Chair Snapshot, Missile Defense
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Media Queries
Contact H. Andrew Schwartz
Chief Communications Officer
Tel: 202.775.3242

Contact Paige Montfort
Media Relations Coordinator, External Relations
Tel: 202.775.3173

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