The End of the Golden Era of Global Health?
Part of the 2012 Global Forecast
Looking ahead to 2013 and beyond, we can already safely predict that, barring an unlikely quick turn to robust economic growth among advanced industrial economies, the global health agenda will remain in very difficult straits into the future. Things could get much more dire if there is a collapse of bipartisanship in Washington or if the economies of major emerging powers falter.
The naught decade (2000–2009) saw remarkable, explosive growth, concentrated in low- and lower-middle-income countries, in dollars delivered to infectious diseases—HIV/ AIDS, tuberculosis, along with maternal and child health, and health systems. Aggregate resources flowing to global health rose from $7 billion per year in 2000 to $27 billion by 2008. The U.S. share has been substantial: in 2012, over $8 billion, as much as $10 billion if other related development investments (e.g., water, sanitation) are taken into account.