Newsletter

Engaging Laos: Strategic Part of the ASEAN Puzzle

Volume II | Issue 16 | 28th September 2011

September 28, 2011

In July 2010, Lao deputy prime minister and minister of foreign affairs Thongloun Sisoulith paid an official visit to Washington. He was and remains the highest-ranking Lao official to visit Washington since the communist takeover in 1975. During his visit he invited Secretary of State Hillary Clinton to reciprocate with a stop in Vientiane.

In the lead-up to Clinton’s July trip to Southeast Asia for the ASEAN Regional Forum (ARF), rumors circulated that she would stop in Laos, but such a visit did not materialize. Still, Lao officials remain hopeful that they will receive a visit from the secretary this year. While 2011 may be difficult to schedule, it would behoove Secretary Clinton to make time for a trip to Laos in the near future.

Laos is not a big country. It has 6.5 million people, a $7.5 billion economy, and exports of $2.5 billion. Nor is its strategic weight compelling when considered alone. However, U.S.-Lao relations have been on an upswing in recent years, and the trend seems to be growing stronger. Although the Lao have never hosted a cabinet-level official from the United States, they have seen several high-level visits of late. Deputy Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia and the Pacific Joseph Yun visited in June. Assistant Secretary of State Kurt Campbell visited in March 2010 for the third U.S.-Lao Comprehensive Bilateral Dialogue and will host his Lao counterparts in Washington in October for the fourth.

The Week That Was

Asian markets in turmoil over Eurozone debt crisis
Najib announces plan to abolish Internal Security Act
Yudhoyono promises to change leadership style

Looking Ahead

Asia 2050: Realizing the Asian Century book discussion at American University
Banyan Tree Leadership Forum featuring Sri Mulyani Indrawati
Forum on the South China Sea in Manila

ENGAGING LAOS: STRATEGIC PART OF THE ASEAN PUZZLE

By Murray Hiebert, Senior Fellow & Deputy Director, and Greg Poling, Researcher, Southeast Asia Program, CSIS

The Pentagon is also thinking strategically. Deputy Assistant Secretary of Defense for South and Southeast Asia Robert Scher visited Vientiane in mid-September. Brig. Gen. Richard Simcock, principal director for South and Southeast Asia in the Office of the Secretary of Defense, visited a few weeks earlier and was the first defense department official to be received by Laos’s deputy defense minister. Laos opened a defense attaché office in Washington in 2008, and the United States did the same in Vientiane in 2009. The Pentagon and the Lao Ministry of Defense have held bilateral defense dialogues annually in recent years, with the sixth taking place this month.

This uptick in diplomatic activity raises an important question: why Laos? Setting aside the unreliable figures from neighboring Burma, Laos is ASEAN’s poorest member, both per capita and in absolute terms. As Southeast Asia’s only landlocked country, it does not play a role in U.S. interests in the Indian Ocean and South China Sea. In addition, it cannot match the resource wealth of neighboring Burma or Vietnam and is only a minor trading partner of the United States.

For decades, the U.S.-Lao relationship has been dominated by two Vietnam War legacies: POW/MIA recovery and unexploded ordnance (UXO). These issues remain vital. The United States has an obligation to recover the remains of the 327 Americans still missing in Laos and assist with the UXO problem, which it created.

However, the past should not continue to determine the future of U.S.-Lao relations. This decade has witnessed the rise in importance of Southeast Asia, and therefore Laos, in U.S. strategic calculations.

The Obama administration has made it clear that U.S. strategic priorities have irrevocably shifted toward Asia. With Secretary Clinton’s perfect attendance record at the ARF meetings, former secretary of defense Robert Gate’s participation in the ASEAN Defense Ministers’ Meeting-Plus (ADMM+), and President Obama’s upcoming participation in his first East Asia Summit (EAS) and third U.S.-ASEAN leaders’ summit in Bali in November, ASEAN has clearly become the preferred mechanism for leveraging U.S. political and diplomatic clout in the region. Increasing engagement with all of ASEAN’s members increases U.S. clout in ASEAN forums.

Laos’s standing as an ASEAN member is reason enough to seek improved relations, but its upcoming 2016 chairmanship of the group raises its profile further. It is no accident that the United States’ impressive diplomatic gains in the region over the last two years have coincided with the chairmanships of Vietnam and Indonesia, two of ASEAN’s heavy hitters and rising stars. The United States made improving relations with Indonesia and Vietnam a priority in recent years and reaped the benefits not only in bilateral cooperation, but in gaining a more receptive audience at ASEAN forums.

It is largely the chair’s prerogative to set the agenda at ASEAN meetings and steer the discussions. The remarkable initiatives of Vietnam and Indonesia in pushing the envelope of ASEAN norms of noninterference and consensus building are unlikely to be followed by the next two chairs, Cambodia and Brunei. If the United States wants ASEAN to evolve into a more effective regional architecture for resolving disputes and maintaining stability in Asia, it needs to invest now in building bridges with future chairs.

And then there is the elephant in the room of U.S. relations with Southeast Asia – China. It is certainly not in the United States’ interests to be seen as confronting or containing China. But it is also not in its interests to cede the field. If the last year has proven anything, it is that China’s neighbors are at once eager for Chinese trade and investment, and profoundly nervous about its long-term political and strategic intentions in the region. The United States has made a good start with reengaging Laos in the past few years, but more could be done.

Historically, Vietnam has been Laos’s closest political ally and Thailand its largest economic partner. For years, this situation meant the United States had little reason to worry about Laos, as its leaders studiously worked to maintain good relations with both U.S.-allied Thailand and communist Vietnam. However, this equilibrium has of late started to turn on its head. In a few years, skyrocketing Chinese investment has allowed China to overtake Thailand as the largest economic presence in the country, and a concerted diplomatic effort has allowed it to rival the decades-old dominance of Vietnam in Lao politics.

The United States does not need to worry about wresting Laos from the Chinese orbit. What it should do, however, is seek to provide the Lao leadership with additional options and channels for development and growth. Greater U.S. engagement can be achieved in several areas, including economically through an expanded trade and investment framework agreement. More focused capacity-building efforts could be provided to support Laos’s bid to join the World Trade Organization, as part of the Lower Mekong Initiative, and to take steps to realize a U.S.-ASEAN free trade agreement. While they are loath to express such a sentiment publicly, Lao leaders want strategic balance as much as any of their neighbors. Political engagement through higher-level visits and expansion of cooperation along the lines of that with Vietnam will help Laos maintain this balance, which is clearly more supportive of U.S. strategic goals than a Laos increasingly dependent on Chinese largesse.

Laos does not enjoy the prominence of Indonesia or Vietnam. Yet it does have strategic value that the United States would be foolish to ignore. The key to maximizing that value is to send a clear message to Vientiane that it will not be overlooked. There are few moves that can send such a message as effectively as a visit by the secretary of state.

The Week That Was

Looking for CSIS coverage of Australia, New Zealand and the Pacific?

In September, CSIS announced the opening of a new Pacific Partners Initiative covering Australia, New Zealand and the Pacific island countries. Coverage of those countries is now available in our CSIS Pacific Partners Update, a monthly newsletter that follows the design and format of the Southeast Asia from the Corner of 18th & K newsletter. Pacific Partners also has a Facebook and Twitter, @PacPartnersDC.

Global Market Turmoil and the Politics of Trade

Markets in turmoil over Eurozone debt crisis and U.S. economic slowdown. IMF managing director Christine Lagarde and World Bank president Robert Zoellick warned on September 22 of dangers in the global economy, largely spurred by the continuing Eurozone debt crisis and the U.S. Federal Reserve warning the previous day about "serious downside risks" in the U.S. economy. World stock markets plunged in response, but then rebounded sharply on September 27 amid rumors that the G20 had reached agreement on a plan to resolve Greece’s debt woes. In Southeast Asia, Indonesian stocks rebounded 4.8 percent after losing 3.2 percent a day earlier, Thailand gained 4.7 percent after a 5.7 percent loss, Singapore and Malaysia each gained 2 percent, and Vietnam ended 0.7 percent higher.

Progress on U.S. trade policy stymied by partisanship. While international markets fell, the U.S. Congress made progress toward advancing trade as a key element of recovery and much-needed pillar of new economic growth. Both the House and Senate approved trade adjustment assistance (TAA), which would provide help to those adversely impacted as the United States extends its linkages to world markets. However, progress on pending free trade agreements (FTAs) with Korea, Colombia, and Panama has stalled because of distrust between the White House and congressional Republican leaders. The FTAs are a crucial deliverable to give President Obama and the United States credibility at the APEC Leaders’ Summit in Honolulu and East Asia Summit in Bali in November. Asian partners are expressing strong concerns about the lack of consensus in Washington on issues fundamental to U.S. leadership in the Asia-Pacific region. Anxieties were enhanced by the partisan clash over approving a continuing resolution to fund the government and failure to move on trade before members of both houses left the capital last weekend for a recess as the world’s financial leaders arrived for the World Bank and IMF annual meetings.

Trade and architecture. U.S. allies and strategic partners in the Asia-Pacific region are quietly urging the United States to return to a leadership posture on trade. The first step and litmus test is passage of the U.S.-Korea Free Trade Agreement (KORUS). Implicit in messaging from partners is the fact that without a proactive trade policy, U.S. foreign policy in the region feels unbalanced. U.S. partners hope the United States will pass the KORUS, move forward smartly on the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP) negotiation, and agree to include trade, finance, and development on the East Asia Summit (EAS) agenda. To date, U.S. partners believe the United States wants to separate trade and economics from security and political issues by using APEC for the former and the EAS for the latter. They would like the United States to allow for more overlap, understand that the region must go through a period of competing structures, and strengthen key institutions like the EAS. Failure to take steps such as embracing the trade and economic agenda in the EAS or setting a long-term vision for a U.S.-ASEAN free trade agreement, while neither offers hopes of immediate return on investment, would result in strengthening Chinese assertions that the most results-driven Asian architecture is ASEAN + 3 (ASEAN plus China, Japan, and Korea) and that the expanded EAS—with the inclusion of the United States and Russia for the first time this November—will be a “talk shop.” To address these concerns and promote U.S. national security interests, the United States should pass KORUS, focus on completing a TPP that provides a strong and competitive benchmark, commit to taking the steps needed to achieve a U.S.-ASEAN FTA (including capacity building in lesser-developed economies along with encouraging real political reform in Burma), and welcome discussion of economic integration and trade at the EAS.

Malaysia

Najib announces plan to abolish Internal Security Act. Prime Minister Najib Razak announced in his Malaysia Day address on September 16 his intention to repeal the Internal Security Act (ISA) and three emergency declarations during the next session of the parliament in March 2012. The government will introduce two new security laws strengthening human rights protection and allowing preventive detention only in cases of terrorism. Former prime minister Mahathir Mohamad said that the ISA’s abolition will place Malaysia “on the moral high ground.” Human rights groups and opposition groups in Malaysia pointed out that the real test of reform would be based on the content of the new laws and the inclusion of election reform in Najib’s agenda.

Three Malaysians killed in southern Thailand bombings. Three Malaysian nationals, including a three-year-old boy, were among four people killed in southern Thailand when three bombs exploded within 40 minutes of one another in Sungai Golok, Narathiwat province, on September 16. The fourth person killed was a 38-year-old local volunteer. Sixty others were injured in the incidents. Malaysia responded by warning its citizens against nonessential travel to southern Thailand.

IMF predicts Malaysian economy will grow 5.2 percent in 2011. The International Monetary Fund revised Malaysia’s growth projection downward from 5.5 percent to 5.2 percent for this year and 5.1 percent for 2012 in its recently released World Economic Outlook report. It expects domestic investment to lead the country’s growth and balance the commodities export slowdown due to falling economic growth in the United States and Europe.

Burma

U.S. special representative and Aung San Suu Kyi see signs of progress. The U.S. special representative and policy coordinator for Burma, Derek Mitchell, wrapped up a five-day visit to Burma on September 14 by noting that the United States “recognized and welcomed recent gestures” by the government, including the meetings of officials with opposition leader Aung San Suu Kyi. Mitchell also singled out the recent establishment of a Human Rights Commission, but said more progress on human rights is needed. Suu Kyi reinforced this cautiously positive tone on September 18, saying she believes Burmese president Thein Sein’s commitment to reform is genuine. U.S. senator Jim Webb, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Subcommittee on East Asia and Pacific Affairs, said, “There are clear indications of a new openness from the government, and the United States should be prepared to adjust our policy toward Burma accordingly.”

Burma unblocks foreign news sites, but press freedom remains restricted. Burma lifted access restrictions on foreign news and media sites on September 15. The opened sites included the news service Reuters, Democratic Voice of Burma, Voice of America, and the BBC as well as video portal YouTube. These signs of greater press freedom were undercut by a Committee to Protect Journalists report on September 19 detailing continuing government censorship and detention of journalists, including the 10-year term added to the sentence of photographer Sithu Zeya on September 14.

China’s investment charm offensive backfiring. Total approved foreign investment in Burma rose from $300 million in 2009-–2010 to nearly $20 billion in 2010–2011, according to a recent presentation by Burmese president Thein Sein’s chief economic adviser, Dr. U Myint. The influx of investment, mainly from China, has caused the kyat to appreciate by 20–25 percent since January 2010. This has undermined the profitability of manufacturing and created a glut of cheap agricultural products on the domestic market, driving farmers into debt. Analysts suggest one of the forces for political reform may be Burmese companies that are feeling pressured by China’s overwhelming influence over their economy.

Indonesia

Yudhoyono promises to change leadership style. Indonesia’s president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono responded on September 22 to criticism about what some observers see as ineffectual leadership by informing reporters, “I promise to change my leadership in my third year.” Most importantly, President Yudhoyono said that he will reshuffle his cabinet on October 20, the start of his third year, though he did not specify which ministers will be replaced.

Bakrie chosen as Golkar’s 2014 presidential candidate. Indonesia’s second largest political party, Golkar, has selected party chairman Aburizal Bakrie as its candidate in the 2014 presidential elections. The decision was unanimously approved on September 19 at a party board meeting in Bali. Many Indonesians view Bakrie, who is one of Indonesia’s richest businessmen, as an opponent of reform. The largest obstacles to his viability as a winning candidate could be that he is not from Java and that his family’s Lapindo Brantas gas company is widely blamed for a 2006 toxic mud explosion in Java that displaced 40,000 people.

Thousands strike at world’s largest gold and third-largestcopper mine. Some 8,000 workers at Freeport-McMoRan Copper and Gold Inc.'s Grasberg mine in West Papua went on strike on September 13. According to a union representative, strikers are demanding that the company accept demands for higher pay. About 1,000 workers returned to work on September 19, allowing a partial restarting of production, but the slowdown is expected to seriously dampen Freeport’s third-quarter profits.

Indonesia lobbying for full Palestinian membership in the UN. Indonesian foreign minister Marty Natalegawa on September 19 confirmed his country’s support for full Palestinian membership in the UN. Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas has said that he will seek a vote on membership in the General Assembly despite U.S. opposition. Natalegawa began to lobby other UN member nations on September 20 and met with the UN Palestinian committee on September 22. The U.S. position on Palestine and Israel has raised concerns among Muslim communities around Southeast Asia for many years.

Russia and Indonesia to cooperate on military weapons production. Russia’s ambassador to Indonesia, Alexander A. Ivanov, announced on September 20 that Russia has prepared memorandums of understanding with Indonesian weapons manufacturers PT Pindad, PT PAL, and PT Dirgantara Indonesia to begin joint military weapons production and defense technology transfers. Indonesia’s defense minister Purnomo Yusgiantoro expressed surprise at the Russian initiative, which is the first of its kind between the two countries. (Read CSIS military industrial experts Guy Ben-Ari and Sneha Roghavan’s analysis of ASEAN’s attempts to integrate regional defense technology efforts on cogitASIA here.)

Vietnam

U.S. ambassador David Shear sworn in. The United States’ ambassador to Vietnam, David Shear, was sworn in at the U.S. Department of State on Monday, September 26, after nearly a month on the job in Hanoi. Shear, a career foreign service officer with extensive experience in China and Southeast Asia, flew to his posting almost immediately after his confirmation by the U.S. Senate. The United States and Vietnam are in a diplomatic process to agree on new locations for embassies in their respective capitals. The current embassy locations in Hanoi and Washington do not befit the enhanced level of diplomatic relations.

U.S. Commerce official notes problems, progress in Vietnam. U.S. assistant commerce secretary for trade promotion Suresh Kumar said at a press conference in Ho Chi Minh City on September 19 that Vietnam should do more to fulfill its WTO commitments. Kumar said Vietnam had to follow through on commitments to reduce economic support for state-owned enterprises, clarify contract laws, and improve protection of intellectual property rights. On a positive note, Kumar called Vietnam’s involvement in negotiations for the Trans-Pacific Partnership a “positive step.”

Vietnamese property market more inviting than its neighbors’. Vietnam’s property and hospitality sectors offer better opportunities for foreign investors than those of other regional countries, including Thailand, Singapore, Indonesia, and Malaysia, London-based real estate adviser DTZ said in its September report on Southeast Asia. The report also noted that investors continue to face difficulties in Vietnam because of the country’s complicated bureaucracy, lack of regulatory transparency, weak legal framework, and rising inflation.

South China Sea

China protests India-Vietnam oil exploration agreement. China’s state-owned People’s Daily warned on September 15 that any Indian activity in Chinese-claimed waters of the South China Sea would constitute an infringement of China’s sovereignty. The paper was responding to an announcement about an agreement between India’s state-owned Oil and Natural Gas Corporation and Petro Vietnam about cooperation on an exploration and drilling project off the coast of Vietnam. India’s external affairs minister SM Krishna said in an official visit to Hanoi on September 16 that India’s stance complies with the UN Convention on the Law of the Seas (UNCLOS).

Manila hosts ASEAN maritime legal experts meeting. Experts on maritime law from all 10 ASEAN countries met in Manila on September 22 under the terms of the recently agreed-upon guidelines for implementing the 2002 Declaration on the Conduct of Parties in the South China Sea. Philippine vice-president Jejomar C. Binay opened the meeting by setting out five principles for a “more binding and meaningful solution” to ongoing territorial disputes. Under his proposal, countries would determine which areas are in dispute so that oil and gas exploration can begin in the undisputed areas.

Japan, Philippines discuss security in the South China Sea. Japanese ambassador to the Philippines Toshinao Urabe met with Philippine officials in Tokyo on September 20 and underscored Japan’s security interests in the South China Sea. The Philippine delegation proposed establishing a “permanent working group” to resolve regional maritime issues. The meetings in Tokyo preceded Aquino’s visit to Japan taking place September 25-28, during which maritime security will be discussed.

Indonesia, Vietnam to establish joint patrols. In a boost for ASEAN maritime domain awareness and security cooperation, Vietnamese prime minister Nguyen Tan Dung visited Jakarta on September 13-14 and confirmed a maritime security agreement with Indonesian president Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono. President Dung said, “We agreed to task our foreign ministries with negotiating and signing an agreement to establish joint patrols in the sea area and lines of communication between our two navies.”

Philippines

Aquino promotes investment opportunities during U.S. visit. Philippine president Benigno Aquino made a five-day working visit to the United States September 1823 to spread the message that his country is “open for business.” During his trip, which took him to New York and Washington, D.C., Aquino met with U.S. government officials and business leaders. During a speech to World Bank and IMF officials in Washington, Aquino noted his administration’s efforts to implement “strategic interventions that promote not just growth but inclusive growth."

Philippines’ secretary of finance gives speech at CSIS. Philippine secretary of finance Cesar Purisima discussed the state of the Philippine economy at CSIS’ prestigious Banyan Tree Leadership Forum on September 22. Secretary Purisima highlighted Philippine president Benigno Aquino’s approach to the economy, ASEAN’s views on the EU, and prospects for the Philippines joining the Trans-Pacific Partnership. He also stressed his country’s fiscal sustainability, infrastructure investments, and educational system as benchmarks of success. The video of his speech is available here.

Fighting erupts between rival guerilla groups. Fighting between Moro Islamic Liberation Front (MILF) troops and a rival faction left four dead in Mindanao on September 15. The violence began when forces loyal to Ameril Umbra Kato, the commander of the Bangsamoro Islamic Freedom Movement (BIFM), allegedly ambushed MILF guerillas. Philippine government officials see the fighting among rebels as a threat to the Malaysia-mediated peace talks that have taken place over the past year.

Philippine troops rescue businesswoman held by Abu Sayyaf. Philippine soldiers killed three Abu Sayyaf combatants on Basilan Island on September 19 and freed kidnapped businesswoman Luisa Galvez. The Al Qaeda-linked Abu Sayyaf Group has increased kidnappings in recent months to finance its activities. According to a confidential government document, the group kidnapped at least 11 victims last year, which resulted in the payment of more than $700,000 in ransoms.

ASEAN

ASEAN launches infrastructure loan fund just for members. ASEAN finance ministers met in Washington, D.C., on September 25 to launch a new infrastructure loan fund for member states. The ministers chose to raise the initial capital of $500 million without regional powers such as China and South Korea to keep the fund from becoming the subject of strategic competition. Malaysia, Indonesia, and the Asian Development Bank are the largest contributors to the fund, which it is hoped will reach $4 billion by 2020.

ASEAN Inter-Parliamentary General Assembly criticized over Burma membership. The ASEAN Inter-Parliamentary Myanmar Caucus, a group of legislators from Malaysia, Indonesia, Singapore, Thailand, Philippines, and Cambodia who share an interest in speeding up political reform in Burma, protested the ASEAN Inter-Parliamentary Assembly’s (APIA’s) acceptance of Burma as a full-fledged member during a general assembly of the APIA September 1824. Besides the dispute over Burma’s membership, the APIA agreed to strengthen regional cooperation to produce sustainable economic growth and develop capacity-building projects for less-developed economies. A Chinese representative praised stronger ties between ASEAN and China, especially since the establishment of the ASEAN-China Free Trade Area.

ASEAN energy ministers forge stronger ties with Korea, Japan on nuclear power. South Korea and Japan pledged to share nuclear energy expertise at the ASEAN energy ministers’ meeting in Brunei on September 20. Several ASEAN countries are examining the feasibility of nuclear energy programs. ASEAN secretary general Surin Pitsuwan raised concerns during the meeting about the infrastructure challenges facing Southeast Asia and pushed the region’s leaders to meet their eventual goal of energy independence. Want to know more? Read CSIS senior adviser Ernie Bower’s note on why the US should send its Energy Secretary to the ASEAN energy ministers’ meeting on cogitASIA here, and the case for Vietnam creating a ministry of energy here.

APEC

Secretary Clinton keynotes Women and the Economy Summit. U.S. secretary of state Hillary Clinton spoke at the APEC Women and the Economy Summit in San Francisco on September 16 about institutional barriers to women’s economic success and warned about the impact of those barriers’ on the Asia Pacific’s economic growth. APEC member nations are gearing up for the leaders’ summit to be held in Hawaii in November.

Taiwan agrees to work on green energy with APEC members during energy conference. The 2011 Joint Transportation and Energy Ministerial Conference in San Francisco on September 12–13 provided a venue for Taiwan to strike an agreement with other APEC members to cooperate on creating green energy technology. Taiwan will tackle geothermal technology with the Philippines and solar photonics and wind power with China. Cooperation with China will occur alongside other cross-strait goodwill-building projects. The conference also produced agreements on standards for green transportation systems.

Laos

Chinese leaders offer Laos infrastructure aid. China pledged development aid to Laos and assistance on infrastructure projects during meetings between Laos’s president Choummaly Saysone and China’s premier Wen Jiabao and president Hu Jintao on September 19–20 in Beijing. The Lao and Chinese leaders also discussed efforts to boost ties between their Communist Party organizations.

Vietnamese firm to build Lao hydroelectric dam. A $450 million contract for construction of the Nam Sum dam in the northeast border province of Huaphan was awarded to Vietnam’s Saigon Investment Group on September 20. Eighty-five percent of the dam’s electrical output is earmarked for Vietnam as part of the energy development plan between the two countries.

East Asia Summit

President Obama to attend East Asia Summit in November. The State Department confirmed on September 15 that President Barack Obama will attend the East Asia Summit in Bali on November 18–19. This summit will mark the first time the United States will attend as a participant, not just an observer. It will serve as an opportunity for the president to emphasize the importance of maintaining regional stability, especially as the strategic and trade environment evolves in the coming decades. President Obama will have a busy November. He will attend the G20 Leaders Meeting in Cannes on November 3-4, return to the United States, then host the APEC Leaders’ Summit from November 8-13, make his inaugural visit to Australia to celebrate the 60th anniversary of the ANZUS treaty, and then go to Bali for the EAS.

India looks to Southeast Asia to diversify liquefied natural gas sources. Indian officials met with several liquid natural gas (LNG) exporting countries in an effort to diversity India’s sources of LNG at a meeting of the East Asia Summit energy ministers on September 21. India gets just 10 percent of its energy from LNG, well below the global average of 24 percent, and it hopes to transform its energy mix to include more LNG. India’s state-owned LNG company hopes to help build the LNG transmission infrastructure in Southeast Asia.

Thailand

Thaksin videoconferences with Thai cabinet members. Thailand’s former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra participated in a meeting of Puea Thai cabinet ministers via Skype on September 19. His participation in the meeting has intensified debates about whether his sister, newly elected prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra, is unduly influenced by her brother. Rumors of Thaksin’s influence had previously been strengthened by a September 13 reshuffling at the Justice Ministry that brought several of his prominent supporters into positions of power.

Thousands of Thaksin supporters gather to mark coup anniversary. An estimated 6,000 “Red Shirts” gathered in Bangkok on September 18 to mark the fifth anniversary of the military coup that toppled ex-premier Thaksin Shinawatra. A Red Shirt spokesman told AFP that Thailand has yet to develop a full democracy because of “conditions which were set after the coup,” including a new constitution introduced by the military rulers. Last year, the Red Shirts staged two months of demonstrations that ended in a military crackdown that left more than 90 people dead.

Floods kill 130 and cause widespread damage. Thai authorities announced that flooding in 56 of Thailand’s 76 provinces has killed about 130 people since June. Some 300,000 homes have been damaged or destroyed and 1.3 million acres of farmland are under water. Cost of the damage totals roughly $1 billion. Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra’s government has approved compensation of $27 million for those affected by the flooding and will pay farmers $180 per acre for damaged crops.

Thai economy predicted to grow 4 percent this year. A Thai Finance Ministry official said on September 21 that Thailand’s economy will likely grow 4 percent this year. The new estimate is at the low end of the ministry’s earlier forecast range of 4 to 5 percent made in June. The Thai economy expanded by 7.8 percent in 2010.

Brunei Darussalam

First U.S.-Brunei Senior Officials Dialogue held in Washington. Brunei’s minister of foreign affairs and trade II Pehin Lim Jock Seng and U.S. assistant secretary of state Kurt Campbell cochaired the inaugural meeting of the U.S.-Brunei Senior Officials Dialogue on September 20 in Washington, D.C. The dialogue aimed to strengthen bilateral relations between the two countries. Among the topics discussed were increasing the number of high-level visits, strengthening regional architecture, and helping Brunei to achieve its conservation goals. Brunei is reportedly providing financial and design support for a U.S. educational initiative for ASEAN that would markedly increase the number of American teachers providing English-language instruction in key ASEAN countries.

Brunei’s crown prince on official visit to Washington. Prince Haji Al-Muhtadee Billah, Brunei’s crown prince and senior minister in the prime minister’s office, arrived in Washington, D.C., on September 18 for a three-day official visit. The crown prince met with Secretary of Homeland Security Janet Napolitano, Deputy Secretary of State William Burns, and Deputy Secretary of Defense William Lynn.

Singapore

Singapore batting above its weight in Washington. Two leaders from Singapore’s new cabinet visited Washington, D.C. last week, underlining the country’s continued record for wielding influence beyond its size. Deputy prime minister and finance minister Tharman Shanmugaratnam was in Washington at the center of coping with the global financial crisis in his nascent role as chair of the International Monetary Financial Committee (IMFC), which is the core governance and policy body for the IMF. Also visiting was Minister of the Environment and Water Resources Vivian Balakrishan, attending the 11th meeting of the Major Economies Forum (MEF) on energy and climate. Minister Balakrishan visited CSIS and spoke about the politics of climate change and developments in Singapore and ASEAN. View his interview on CSIS’s DIALOG here.

Singapore under pressure to abolish security law. Singapore has come under pressure to abolish its Internal Security Law, following Malaysia’s September 15 announcement that it would repeal its Internal Security Act. Singapore’s law allows indefinite detention of suspects without trial or criminal charges. Singapore’s Ministry of Home Affairs issued a statement on September 16 defending the law, saying that it is “different from that in Malaysia” and insisting that no one has ever been detained for his political beliefs.

Cambodia

Cambodia moves forward with law to regulate NGOs. Cambodia is pushing ahead with a draft law to regulate more than 2,000 nongovernment organizations (NGOs) in the country despite international criticism. The law was approved by the country’s Council of Ministers in August, but earlier this month it was sent back to the Ministry of Interior for review. The United States has expressed concerns about the law and asked the Cambodian government to reconsider whether it is necessary.

Thaksin and his sister Yingluck visit Cambodia. Exiled former prime minister Thaksin Shinawatra arrived in Cambodia for a week-long visit on September 16 on the heels of an official visit by his sister, Prime Minister Yingluck Shinawatra. Thaksin met with Prime Minister Hun Sen on September 17. It was widely speculated that the two sought to ease tensions over the disputed Preah Vihear temple, talked about the early release of Thai nationalist activists convicted of spying in Cambodia, and discussed joint exploitation of disputed offshore gas reserves in the Gulf of Thailand.

Mekong River

Flooding in Mekong Delta threatens region’s rice harvest. Downstream areas of the Mekong Delta are experiencing the worst flooding to hit the region in nine years, according to a September 18 report by Vietnam’s Central Hydrometeorology Center. The floods, which began in July, have killed at least 58 people in Cambodia and about 130 in Thailand. Thousands of acres of rice fields have been inundated, which will seriously diminish the region’s harvest.

Looking Ahead

Asia 2050: Realizing the Asian Century book discussion at American University. On September 28, the American University ASEAN Studies Center, the Asian Development Bank (ADB), and Transnational Challenges and Emerging Nations Dialogue (TRANSCEND) will cohost a discussion on ADB’s flagship book Asia 2050: Realizing the Asian Century. Participants will include ADB managing director Rajat M. Nag, and former World Bank vice president Shahid Javed Burki. The discussion will take place from 5:30 p.m. to 7:00 p.m. in Ward 2, Ward Building, American University, 4400 Massachusetts Avenue, NW. Please contact aseanstudiescenter@american.edufor more information.

SAIS book launch with Thant Myint-U. On September 29, Thant Myint-U, a Burmese writer and historian, will launch his new book, Where China Meets India: Burma and the New Crossroads of Asia , at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS). The book launch will take place at the Benjamin T. Rome Building auditorium, 1619 Massachusetts Ave., N.W., Washington, D.C., from 5:30 p.m. to 7:30 p.m. Please contact southeastasiaprogram@csis.orgto find out more.

Banyan Tree Leadership Forum featuring Sri Mulyani Indrawati. On September 30, CSIS will host World Bank managing director Sri Mulyani Indrawati from 10:00 a.m. to 11:00 a.m. for a policy speech on trends in governance, finance, and trade in Southeast Asia. Sri Mulyani, one of three managing directors at the World Bank, was formerly Indonesia’s finance minister. The speech is part of the Banyan Tree Leadership Forum series. Please contact southeastasiaprogram@csis.orgto find out more.

Forum on the South China Sea. On October 16–17, the Carlos P. Romulo Foundation and the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies will host a Forum on the South China Sea at the Manila Polo Club, Makati City, Philippines. The forum will be moderated by former Philippine minister of foreign affairs Roberto R. Romulo and will include keynote speeches and panel discussions with academics and former officials from the Philippines, Brunei, Vietnam, Malaysia, Singapore, Indonesia, Taiwan, China, India, Canada, the EU, and the United States.

For more details on our programs and to follow CSIS with real-time updates, sign on for CSIS Southeast Asia Program on Facebook and follow us on Twitter @ SoutheastAsiaDC, and at our blog, cogitASIA at http://cogitASIA.com. Thank you for your interest in U.S. policy in Southeast Asia and CSIS Southeast Asia. Join the conversation!