Europe in 2019: A Critical and Transitional Year

THE ISSUE

For European countries and institutions as well as for transatlantic relations, 2019 will be a pivotal year. With several important leadership, policy, and structural transitions taking place in capitals and Brussels, there will be instability and uncertainty but from this could stem more positive dynamics. While the twists and turns of events remain unpredictable, what follows is a quick take on some of the most significant events on the European and transatlantic security and defense calendar for 2019 and the important stakes that are at play.
 

BREXIT

The only certainty surrounding Brexit is that it will be fraught with uncertainty and will be a major political distraction for the United Kingdom and the rest of the European Union well into 2019. Following the UK House of Commons’ decisive and historic rejection (by 220 votes) of Prime Minister May’s Withdrawal Agreement negotiated with the European Union on January 15, time is short for the United Kingdom to forestall a “no deal” Brexit scenario before March 29, when the United Kingdom is due to leave the European Union. Having survived a second no-confidence vote in less than a month, Prime Minister May will spend the coming weeks trying to convince the House of Commons to approve her old plan with some improvements related to the Irish border. As of this writing, members of Parliament (MPs) approved two non-binding amendments, which require the prime minister to seek alternative arrangements on the previously negotiated assurances that there will be no hard border with Ireland and to ensure a negotiated deal before the United Kingdom leaves the European Union. Prime Minister May will seek to re-open the withdrawal treaty with the European Union to change the backstop language, but it is unlikely the European Union will agree, increasing the chances of a no-deal exit. A remaining option is to seek an extension to continue negotiating past the March 29 deadline.

The only certainty surrounding Brexit is that it will be fraught with uncertainty and will be a major political distraction for the United Kingdom and the rest of the European Union well into 2019.

Once this is ultimately sorted one way or the other and there is clarity regarding the United Kingdom’s departure, the United Kingdom and the European Union can finally move to discuss their future relationship in foreign policy, security, and defense where both sides share an interest in maintaining robust cooperation. Whether on sanctions, counterterrorism, cyber, crisis management, or defense capability development, the European Union needs the political will, expertise, and hard military capabilities the United Kingdom brings to the table.

Contrary to many predictions, the remaining EU countries have been unified in exit negotiations with the United Kingdom. Trust in the European Union has remained constant or even increased in 2018. Yet this trust does not necessarily translate to a desire for deeper integration or transfer of sovereignty at the EU level and will be tested in a few short months.

Source: EMMANUEL DUNAND/AFP/Getty Images

ELECTIONS

In addition to the European Parliament (EP) elections in May, ten national parliaments are up for reelection, and eight presidential elections are scheduled for 2019.11 In the past few years, many European nations have experienced growing distrust in established political parties and structures. While this discontent has manifested itself  most visibly in events such as Brexit and the gilets jaunes   or Yellow Vest protests in France, it is also unfolding more subtly through elections. Here, it has led to a decline in support for centrist and traditional parties, the emergence of new political parties, and increased support for small/ fringe parties that support nationalistic, protectionist, and Eurosceptic agendas. This  political  fragmentation has greatly delayed government formation as was seen in Germany in 2017 and, most recently, in Sweden where it took four months to form a minority government. The European Parliament and national elections in 2019 will be an important indicator of whether this fragmentation and polarization trend will continue and the effect it will have on European integration, security, and prosperity.
 

EUROPEAN PARLIAMENT ELECTIONS

At this point, the two largest party families in the European Parliament—the center-right European People’s Party (EPP) and the center-left Progressive Alliance of Socialists and Democrats (S&D), which have held a majority of seats since 2014, seem likely to fall below 50 percent of seats shared between them. Most recent polls project 180 seats for EPP (around 25 percent) and 134 for S&D (around 19 percent) out of the 705 total EP seats after Brexit.

Increased fragmentation caused by more small party groups, such as the Greens, Liberals (ALDE), and Eurosceptic parties, will make coalition building around new legislation more challenging than in the past. Given the Parliament’s role in passing the EU budget and “confirming” EU Commissions, to include the Commission president, an increase in the number of Eurosceptic and nationalist MPs will complicate the European Union’s ability to tackle divisive issues such as migration or violations against EU rules.
 

NATIONAL ELECTIONS

With the leaders of the United Kingdom, France, and Germany weakened by domestic political challenges, the strength and stability of smaller European nations may prove more important than usual. A quick look at the European electoral landscape for 2019 reveals three elements to watch. First, as in the EP elections, an increase in support for nationalist and far-right parties could further erode support for centrist and traditional parties. This risk is highest in non-EU Switzerland where the far-right Swiss People’s Party won 29 percent in the last election but could also be a factor in elections in countries that members of both the European Union and the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO), such as Denmark, Finland, and Belgium. Even in opposition, a visible increase in support of far-right parties typically forces centrist parties to make concessions, such as adopting more anti-immigration, protectionist policies. While not at the national level, state elections in Germany—Saxony (September), Brandenburg (September), and Thuringia (October) will likely see gains by the far-right Alternative für Deutschland (AfD), which polls high in all three East German states (especially in Saxony). The German Green Party, which does not traditionally have a strong profile in the East but has been riding a wave of positive polls regionally and nationwide, could place pressure on the current, grand coalition government under the leadership of Chancellor Merkel. A second factor to watch is the ability of small, opposition parties to unite against incumbent governments. This will be particularly interesting to watch in Poland where, according to the latest polls, the ruling party is leading the main opposition party by somewhere between 11 and 6 percentage points, but should smaller opposition parties join forces, they could gain more than 50 percent of the votes, unseating the current government. Finally, elections beyond the European Union’s borders could present challenges to European security and economic policies, particularly in Ukraine, which holds presidential elections in March and parliamentary elections no later than November.

Source: FREDERICK FLORIN/AFP/Getty Images

Source: THIERRY CHARLIER/AFP/Getty Images

¹Ten national parliaments up for reelection: Belgium, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, Greece, Moldova, Poland, Portugal, Switzerland, and Ukraine; eight presidential elections scheduled: Croatia, Latvia, Lithuania, Macedonia, Malta, Romania, Slovakia, and Ukraine