The Evening CSIS: Implicated, Surge, Double Smiles & More

Good Evening,

Welcome to The Evening CSIS—my daily guide to key insights CSIS brings to the events of the day plus HIGHLY RECOMMENDED content from around the world. If you want to view this in your browser, click here.

Implicated
A high-profile British inquiry into the poisoning of Alexander V. Litvinenko, a former KGB officer turned critic of the Kremlin, concluded in a report released today that his murder “was probably approved” by Vladimir Putin and the head of Russia’s spy service, as the New York Times’ Alan Cowell reports.

And, as the UK’s Independent reports, the Litvinenko inquiry and the ensuing war of words between Britain and Russia threatens cooperation in the fight against ISIS.

Surge
Oil prices surged to their biggest gains in months, briefly peaking over $30 a barrel, after traders learned that oil supplies failed to rise as quickly as the most extreme estimates had suggested, as the Wall Street Journal’s Timothy Puko reports.

Dive Deeper: CSIS’s Frank Verrastro, Kevin Book, and Guy Caruso today authored a new commentary: “A Difficult Start to a (Still) Turbulent Year for Global Oil and Gas.”

New Deal
The United States and Israel are finalizing details of a 10-year military aid package that likely will be larger than the $3.1 billion US package Israel received this year, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel said today at the World Economic Forum, as USA Today’s Donna Leinwand Leger reports.

Recommended op-ed: “Building the Future in Israel,” by Israeli minister of housing and construction Yoav Gallant for the New York Times.

ISIS's Internet
ISIS is the first terrorist organization to use the Internet efficiently to spread its ideology and recruit followers in the region and abroad, but it is not an anomaly. In fact, it is reflective of what we can expect to come from terrorist groups in the future. Technology is just one part of the problem, however. What will terrorist organizations in seven years’ time look like? Chatham House hosted Google Ideas’ Jared Cohen to discuss

In that Number
$18 billion
The amount of money that China will invest in Egypt as part of a series of deals signed during President Xi’s visit to Cairo today.
Source: VOA.

Critical Quote
“If China’s economic, military, and geopolitical influence continues to rise at even a modest pace during this period, the world will witness the largest shift in the global distribution of power since the rise of the United States in the late nineteenth and early twentieth centuries.”
—Asia-Pacific Rebalance 2025: Capabilities, Presence, and Partnerships.
Source: CSIS.
One to Watch

The Capital Weather Gang (@capitalweather) is one to watch as Snowmaggedon II bears down and brings Washington to a halt.

Optics
The World Economic Forum’s annual meeting is in full swing in Davos. Of particular interest thus far are Vice President Joe Biden’s address, Prime Minister David Cameron’s speech on Great Britain’s role in the world, and a conversation between Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Fareed Zakaria .

Highly Recommended
Via the New Yorker’s Hua Hsu, “Twenty-Somethings in Taiwan and the Country’s First Female President.”

CSIS Tomorrow
Tomorrow at 10:00 a.m., CSIS will host “Strategic Deterrent Forces: A Foundation for National Security,” with Admiral Cecil Haney, commander of US Strategic Command. To register click here.

CSIS on Demand
Yesterday, CSIS hosted the launch of Asia-Pacific Rebalance 2025: Capabilities, Presence, and Partnerships. This congressionally mandated study discusses the importance of the Asia-Pacific region to US national security in particular and global peace and prosperity more broadly; watch the panel discussion on demand here.

Sounds
CFR’s latest episode on “The World Next Week” previews newly planned Syrian peace talks, discusses Haiti’s presidential runoff election, and takes a look at how far Yemen and Egypt have come in the five years since their uprisings.

I Like It Like That
Eye-catching things in CSIS's orbit
Best quotes from Day 1 at Davos.

Smiles
I got a peaceful easy feeling,
And I know you won't let me down

As with “Already Gone,” the above are songwriter Jack Tempchin’s lyrics, but it was Glenn Frey who brought “Peaceful Easy Feeling” to life with the Eagles’ 1972 debut.

And ever since then, just about everyone in Nashville not named Cash has been trying to create a song of equal beauty and elegant simplicity. And every rock star not named Crosby, Stills, Nash or Young has been trying to sing and strum in such blissful harmony.

Some people are just irreplaceable. In ’76 Frey famously sang (his own lyrics) “They will never forget you till somebody new comes along.” Frey himself is one exception to that notion.

This BBC performance from ’73 with the original Eagles—Frey, Henley, Bernie Leadon and Randy Meisner won’t let you down.

A Smile for the Road…
Snowmageddon II is about to hit DC and everyone in town is hunkering down. With any luck, The Evening CSIS will be dug out by Monday—but our record here with snow ain’t so good. Cleveland, we are not. So it may be some time before our next “Smile.”

At CSIS, we like to believe that our work helps the media to report on matters of national security. Thanks to my colleagues Andrew Metrick and Scott Aughenbaugh, we have uncovered a bit of proof that our work indeed resonates with our friends from the 4th estate.

Earlier this week, CSIS’s Mark Cancian and our iDeas Lab produced a new video which pointed out that last Sunday marked 25 years of bombing Iraq.

We figured that the Washington Post, New York Times and Wall Street Journal must have missed our video, because sadly, they didn’t pick it up. However, we were glad that Defense One did, and on Facebook the video has been viewed over 525,000 times.

But we really smiled at the thought that somehow our video might have tipped off the Onion who today published the following mash-up: “Pentagon Holds Gala To Celebrate 25 Years Of Bombing Iraq.”

Feedback

I always welcome and benefit from your feedback. Please drop me a line at aschwartz@csis.org .