The Evening CSIS July 10 2015
July 10, 2015
Welcome to The Evening CSIS—my daily guide to key insights CSIS brings to the events of the day plus HIGHLY RECOMMENDED content from around the world. To subscribe, please click here and if you want to view this in your browser, click here.
The Greek government has taken “a whiplash pivot” and hopes of a bailout deal are on the rise, the Washington Post’s Ylan Q. Mui and Anthony Faiola report from Athens.
The New York Times has created a useful interactive, “Is Greece Worse Off Than the US During the Great Depression?”
Dive Deeper: CSIS's Heather Conley assessed the political damage this crisis has caused as European solidarity crumbles in our latest commentary.
The Council on Foreign Relations has created a helpful “ CFR Backgrounder: The Role of the European Central Bank,” plus an interactive timeline on the Greek Debt Crisis.
And, Chatham House held an interesting discussion in London yesterday, “Greece and Europe: What Now?”
Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu of Turkey vowed a quick start to coalition talks after President Recep Tayyip Erdogan instructed him to form a new government more than a month after an election deprived their AK Party of a parliamentary majority, Reuters reports.
Dive Deeper: CSIS’s Bulent Aliriza authored a new commentary today outlining the challenges Davutoglu is facing.
In that Number
It is estimated that 21 million Social Security numbers were stolen from the US Office of Personnel Management (OPM) by hackers.
Source: Wall Street Journal .
Asked: What’s next for Turkey’s parliament?
Answered: Bulent Aliriza, Turkey Project director:
Having ruled out a coalition with the HDP, the AKP is likely to find it difficult to form a government with either the Republican People’s Party (CHP) or the MHP. Both parties have continued to insist since the elections on the imperative of restricting Erdogan’s ability to interfere in government as well as on pursuing the blocked corruption investigations of December 2013. While Davutoglu might not be personally averse to a coalition protocol which would inevitably restrict Erdogan’s room for political maneuver, his ability to conclude such an accord is constrained by his elevation to his position by Erdogan and the strong hold the latter continues to maintain on the party organization and AKP supporters. Davutoglu is also no doubt fully cognizant of the potential threat to his leadership at the AKP congress, which must be held before the end of September, in the event of a display of too much independence from Erdogan. Consequently, having felt the need to stress repeatedly that discussion of Erdogan’s presidency could not be part of the negotiations; his effort to form a government will be characterized by two sets of parallel negotiations, one with his possible coalition partners and another with Erdogan.
If no government is formed by August 23, Erdogan would be able to call new elections in accordance with the constitution. Davutoglu would then have to resign and Erdogan would appoint the prime minister of a provisional government that would lead the country into elections. While his choice could well be Davutoglu again, the membership of this government would be in proportion to the party representation in the TGNA with the exception of the Justice, Interior and Communications ministries which would have to be given to independents. However, because the MHP might refuse to serve in the same government as the HDP, there has been recent speculation that it might be willing to back a minority AKP government to serve until the elections. This would permit the AKP to avoid the disadvantages of entering elections without full control of the levers of government and would essentially be an extension of the current unusual situation. The AKP government under Erdogan’s firm guidance has continued to run the country since June 7 making ministerial and bureaucratic appointments, seeking prosecution of critical journalists, conducting negotiations with the United States on the Syrian crisis and even contemplating a military intervention beyond its southern border, despite the fact that it lost its majority in the elections.
Read the full analysis.
One to Watch
Indira Lakshmanan (@Indira_L) covers foreign policy for Bloomberg and is one of the best in the business. She is particularly one to watch right now for her coverage of the Iran nuclear talks.
WE WON!!! The US women’s soccer team filled lower Manhattan this morning for a ticker-tape parade celebrating its World Cup victory.
Important read: “The Conflict, Displacement, and Food Security Nexus,” by CSIS’s Kimberly Flowers.
CSIS hosted a discussion on building partnership between US policymakers and faith leaders to improve global health outcomes.
CSIS also hosted a presentation of the IEA’s Energy Technology Perspectives 2015, looking at the energy technology sector and how to increase confidence in the feasibility of achieving short- and long-term climate change goals.
CSIS will host a Military Strategy Forum with the Honorable Christine Wormuth on defense policy priorities in an age of rapid change.
This Town Monday
Brookings will cohost a daylong conference with the Taiwan-based Association of Foreign Relations and CSIS on “ Relations across the Taiwan Strait: Retrospective and prospects for future development.”
CSIS on Demand
With China’s stock market falling 30 percent earlier this week, the trajectory of China’s economy is in the spotlight. For a deeper look, watch yesterday’s conversation with senior officials from the Departments of State and Treasury who have been deeply involved in the 7th US-China Strategic and Economic Dialogue—the highest-level bilateral forum for addressing major issues between the world’s two largest economies. Above: Robert Dohner, Deputy Assistant Secretary for Asia, U.S. Department of Treasury.
CSIS’s Scott Kennedy discusses what China’s intervention in its stock market means for the future of the world’s second largest economy .
I Like It Like That
Travel and Leisure rated the “10 best cities in the world, according to travelers.” And Business Insider put together a short and beautiful video of those cities. There are a few surprises, and they left three of my favorites out (London, New Orleans, and San Francisco), but I like this video and the list. A lot.
Encore. I mentioned yesterday that musicians around the world will “cover” the Grateful Dead’s music for the next century and maybe beyond. I’ll leave you with one more example of why and we’ll have completed The Evening CSIS’s Grateful Dead tribute week.
On July 1, 2010, the great British singer Elvis Costello (number 80 on Rolling Stone Magazine’s list of the top 100 artists of all time) took to the stage in Dublin at the intimate Vicar Street venue. Elvis was born in England but his real name is Declan Patrick McManus and he is of Irish ancestry. He had lived in Dublin for many years while he was married to ex-Pogues bassist Cait O'Riordan who he split up with in 2002.
His return to Dublin with his band, The Sugarcanes, positively lit the stage on fire that night. The journalist Steve Rapid called the show, “one of those magical gigs where the venue was right, the sound was right, the band was on top form and the entertainer did what he set out to do - he entertained and then some.”
This rare footage of Elvis’s return to Dublin , covering the Grateful Dead’s “Friend of the Devil” is yet another testament to why the Dead’s music and spirit will live on.
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