The Evening CSIS July 14 2015
July 14, 2015
Welcome to The Evening CSIS—my daily guide to key insights CSIS brings to the events of the day plus HIGHLY RECOMMENDED content from around the world. To subscribe, please click here and if you want to view this in your browser, click here.
Let's Make a Deal
Following 20 months of negotiations, Iran and the US plus six other nations said t hey had reached agreement to limit Tehran’s nuclear ability for more than a decade in return for lifting international sanctions, the New York Times’s David Sanger and Michael Gordon report.
Dive Deeper: CSIS’s Anthony Cordesman has authored a critical analysis that explores the four key criteria for judging the Iran deal.
Plus, Dr. Cordesman’s draft report (soon to be published as an eBook), The Arab-US Strategic Partnership and the Changing Security Balance in the Gulf , offers an assessment which goes far beyond the conventional military balance and examines how force developments in the region affect joint and asymmetric warfare, missiles, and missile defense and nuclear forces.
And, CSIS’s Clark Murdock and Tom Karako authored an op-ed today in Defense News, “Sustaining Nuclear Deterrence Requires New Capabilities,” noting that “Proliferation by Iran or others could strain extended deterrence and invite allies to re-evaluate their non-nuclear status.”
The full text of the Iran nuclear deal can be accessed here.
In addition, the White House today published infographics, which they say underscore “Blocking the Four Pathways to a Nuclear Weapon” that the deal offers, as well as “What Iran’s Nuclear Program Would Look Like Without This Deal.” President Obama’s remarks today on the deal are also accessible in this posting on the WH website.
The White House website’s press section offers a trove of statements, fact sheets, briefings, and a “Readout of the President’s Call with Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu of Israel.”
Following the sensational and disturbing prison escape last Saturday of Mexican drug kingpin Joaquin "El Chapo" Guzman from the max-security Altiplano prison, the Los Angeles Times has excellent coverage of the fallout in Mexico.
Dive Deeper: CSIS’s Carl Meacham today authored a new commentary: “Drug Lord on the Run: Impunity, Injustice, and Crime in Mexico."
Grexit Stage Left
Greek prime minister Alexis Tsipras says he does not believe in the bailout offered by eurozone leaders but is willing to implement it. Tsipras described the deal as "harsh" but said it was the only way for Greece to remain in the eurozone, the BBC reports.
In a useful article for understanding the Greek crisis, the Economist today explains “What Greece must do to receive a new bail-out.”
Dive Deeper: CSIS’s Heather Conley authored a new commentary today: “Taking the Grexit Ramp.”
In that Number
NASA’s New Horizons spacecraft traveled more than 3 billion miles from Earth to reach Pluto.
Asked: What’s been learned over the course of the latest euro crisis?
Answered: Heather Conley, CSIS Europe Program director:
Other than feeling emotionally drained from binge-watching this eurozone reality show the last two weeks, it seems that very little has changed for Europe after the past five years of “extend and pretend” policies, in which Greece’s creditors have (in effect) extended bailout packages to their own banks and Greece has pretended to implement meaningful reforms.
One would hope that Greece—having had a true, “near-death” eurozone experience—will understand that even greater political and economic sacrifices will be required to remain in the euro well beyond the dramatic costs it has borne over the past five years.
One would also hope that Paris and Berlin will recognize that they are having the exact same arguments they have had for 25-plus years about the orientation of the monetary union and the European Union as a whole.
Last Sunday’s Eurozone Summit demonstrated that Europe is edging closer to answering this post-World War II question: Will Europe develop in France’s image, financially underwritten by the Germans? Or, will Europe follow German rules financed and policed by Germany (but, on occasion, overlook French economic transgressions)?
Greece seems to have discovered the answer: Europe will be shaped by Germany (with occasional French intervention). Solidarity is on sale.
One to Watch
For a look at what the Department of Homeland Security is doing to prepare in a world of increasing nuclear agreements, be sure to watch Rick "Ozzie" Nelson, CSIS senior associate, testify tomorrow at a House Homeland Security joint subcommittee hearing on "Weapons of Mass Destruction: Bolstering DHS to Combat Persistent Threats to America.” Ozzie is a former Navy helicopter pilot with over 20 years of operational and intelligence experience, including assignments at the NSC and the National Counterterrorism Center. Click here for an early look at his testimony.
NASA’s New Horizons spacecraft is at Pluto , about 7,750 miles above the planet’s surface. It is the first-ever space mission to explore a world so far from Earth. Credits: NASA/APL/SwRI
CSIS’s Scott Kennedy had an op-ed published in today’s Los Angeles Times, “China's stock market heresy.”
CSIS hosted Melanie Kenderdine, director of the Office of Energy Policy and Systems Analysis at DOE, for a discussion on energy security in the first installment of the Quadrennial Energy Review.
Foreign Minister Daniel Militov of Bulgaria joined CSIS for an invigorating discussion on U.S.-Bulgarian cooperation in security and the some of the principal challenges facing Western civilization.
Representative Ed Royce, chairman of the House Foreign Affairs Committee, and Senator Jeff Flake, chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Subcommittee on African Affairs, will join CSIS for a high-profile conference on combating wildlife poaching and insecurity in Africa. Here’s a look at the full lineup of US and African government participants.
CSIS will also host the Honorable Niels Annen, member of the German Bundestag, and other European experts for a conversation on Europe’s policy approach toward Russia.
This Town Tomorrow
The Atlantic Council will host a timely event on “Can the IAEA Effectively Verify an Agreement Between Iran and the P5+1?,” featuring a former safeguards official from the International Atomic Energy Agency.
CSIS on Demand
Undersecretary of Defense for Policy Christine Wormuth joined CSIS for a discussion on defense policy priorities, including losing younger talent due to budget cuts, Russia aggression, and ensuring Iraq and Syria don’t become long-term safe havens for ISIS.
Listen to former Australian prime minister Julia Gillard on her time in office and her advice for young leaders on this week’s Smart Women, Smart Power podcast.
I Like It Like That
A new Pew study released today shows that 41 percent of US adults get news on Facebook. 10 percent of US adults find news on Twitter. And, clear majorities of Twitter (63%) and Facebook users (63%) now say each platform serves as a source for news about events and issues outside the realm of friends and family. Did I mention @CSIS and our Facebook page?
Yesterday, we showed you a video that has gone viral. It seems that a man in the UK (Wales) “taught” a seagull to dance for “chips.” It’s the little things that fascinate me, so I did some research. It turns out that seagulls have learned that this kind of “dancing” is an effective way to coax earth worms out of the soil to the surface where they become “chips” to seagulls. Who knew?
I wonder if the guy in Wales did—he could have figured it out because another bloke posted a video of a seagull “tap dancing” back in 2008. The ’08 video did not go viral (only 12K views on YouTube). But at least the gentleman who posted it can say he was an early adopter. Check this out and smile.
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