The Evening CSIS May 4 2015

Good Evening,

Welcome to The Evening CSIS—my daily guide to key insights CSIS brings to the events of the day plus HIGHLY RECOMMENDED content from around the world. To subscribe, please click here and if you want to view this in your browser, click here.

Persian Gulf States & US Assurances
On Saturday, the Wall Street Journal’s Jay Solomon and Carol Lee reported that “Leading Persian Gulf states want major new weapons systems and security guarantees from the White House in exchange for backing a nuclear agreement with Iran, according to U.S. and Arab officials.” They also reported that “The leaders of the six-nation Gulf Cooperation Council…plan to use a high-stakes meeting with President Barack Obama [May 13] to request additional fighter jets, missile batteries and surveillance equipment.”

The Christian Science Monitor’s editorial board weighed in on the May 13-14 meetings with President Obama on Sunday: “Ordering up stability for the Mideast.”

And, the Agence France-Presse (AFP) reported Sunday that, before the GCC states meet with President Obama, they themselves must come to agreement indicating that “solutions will be hard to find Tuesday when Gulf monarchs hold their annual summit in a region threatened by jihadists and a war in Yemen that has raised tensions with Iran.”

Dive Deeper: CSIS’s Abdullah Toukan today released a new presentation, “The Arab Gulf and the US Strategic Partnership in Ballistic Missile Defense,” which can be downloaded here. Dr. Toukan also presented his research at a live event today at CSIS, which can be viewed On Demand.

Sino-Japanese Relations
Three Chinese guard ships entered Japan’s territorial waters near the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea on Monday, making it the 13th such intrusion this year, the International Business Times reports.

Dive Deeper: CSIS’s Bonnie Glaser published a new commentary for the superb CSIS blog CogitAsia: “China Changes its Japan Stance as Pressure Tactics Fail.”

CSIS’s Asia Maritime Transparency Initiative ( AMTI) is an interactive, regularly updated source and web magazine for information, analysis, and policy exchange on maritime security issues in Asia. The current installment of the site is devoted to PM Abe’s US visit last week and “A new era in US-Japan Defense Cooperation.”

Insider Resources: Sinocism China Newsletter and the Nelson Report are two must reads for anyone interested in East Asia.

Closing Space Around Civil Society
CSIS’s Sarah Mendelson released animportant new report today: Why Governments Target Civil Society and What Can Be Done in Response: A New Agenda.

According to Dr. Mendelson, “Chief among the current challenges facing the global human rights community (and broader civil society) is a contagion growing in intensity and described best—if inelegantly—as the closing space around civil society…this report identifies five causal factors affecting closing space—in some cases hastening it, in other cases, helping to keep it at bay—that merit extensive, systematic inquiry.”

In that Number
3,000
Percent increase the Baltimore chapter of Big Brothers Big Sisters of America has received (the largest surge in mentor applicants in the organization’s history.)
Source : NBC News.

Critical Question
A daily shortened sampling of our signature "Asked & Answered" series.

Asked: What are the key outcomes of the meeting between Chinese president Xi Jinping and KMT chairman Eric Chu?

Answered: Bonnie Glaser, senior adviser for Asia in the Freeman Chair in China Studies: Xi Jinping met the leader of Taiwan’s ruling party, Eric Chu, for the first time in Beijing today. Eric Chu is a potential KMT candidate in Taiwan’s presidential election on January 16, although he has repeatedly insisted he will serve out his term as mayor of New Taipei City and not enter the presidential race. Xi called for launching political talks with Taiwan, saying that political differences should be settled through consultation under Beijing’s “one China principle.” Hinting at the Mainland’s disappointment that Taiwan president Ma Ying-jeou has not been more forward leaning to promote better cross-strait political ties, Xi encouraged the KMT and Chinese Communist Party to “be brave when facing political differences and difficulties, pool wisdom of compatriots . . . and actively search for a solution.” Chu stressed the need to shelve disputes between the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, signaling that Taiwan is divided over how to approach its relationship with the Mainland and is not eager to start political negotiations.

No breakthrough was achieved on the issue at the top of Chu’s agenda: Taiwan’s desire to participate in regional economic integration and more international organizations, including the Asia Infrastructure Investment Bank (AIIB), the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP), and China’s One Belt, One Road plan. Xi promised to make “proper arrangements” for Taiwan’s participation but stressed that such efforts could only be made in accordance with the “one China principle.” This has been Beijing’s position for the past several years, but it has not led to much progress.

Xi underscored the importance of the “1992 Consensus”—the agreement reached in Hong Kong in 1992 between the KMT and the CCP that both sides agree there is “one China,” but each side can have its own definition. By doing so, he appeared to be warning Taiwan voters that there will be negative ramifications if they elect DPP presidential candidate Tsai Ing-wen, who has pledged to maintain the cross-strait “status quo” but has not accepted the 1992 Consensus. Xi proposed establishing a framework that “systematizes” peaceful development of cross-strait ties, but it was unclear whether such a framework would only apply if the KMT remains in power.

One to Watch

Statistical journalist extraordinaire Nate Silver (pictured above) left the New York Times to start his own website: FiveThirtyEight. It’s especially one to watch ( @FiveThirtyEight) right now because they are off to the races with their “U.K. General Election Predictions” interactive.

Optics
The BBC reports on a Norwegian vessel that has been monitoring changes in the Arctic. The research team braves sub-zero temperatures and polar bears to record their work. See what they are up against here.

Highly Recommended
The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) has an excellent interactive, the “ Nigeria Security Tracker,” which documents and maps violence in Nigeria that is motivated by political, economic, or social grievances.

CSIS Today
Watch video of today’s events at our HQ.

CSIS hosted a Statesmen’s Forum with Dr. Anna Cecilia Malmstrom, EU commissioner for trade, with a discussion on the strategic goals Europe hopes to achieve through its trade policy during the Juncker Commission’s tenure.

CSIS also hosted an in-depth conversation on the various aspects of Arab Gulf security and US defense efforts in the region. The discussion covered major points of the newly released CSIS report “The Arab Gulf and the US Strategic Partnership in Ballistic Missile.”

CSIS Tomorrow
What’s in store at CSIS HQ tomorrow.

The CSIS Global Food Security Project will host a keynote address and discussion with Senator Robert Casey (D-PA) on the importance of global food security efforts to broader US foreign policy and national security goals. Join us at 8:30 a.m.

CSIS will also host a Banyan Tree Leadership Forum at 2:00 p.m. with Serge Pun, chairman of Serge Pun and Associates, who will discuss the current political and economic situation in Myanmar.

This Town Tomorrow
So many important things in this town—so little time. Of note:

The Wilson Center will host an event with author Raymond Struyk on his informative new bookImproving Think Tank Management: Practical Guidance for Think Tanks, Research Advocacy NGOs, and their Funders. Click here to learn more.

CSIS on Demand
Prime Minister Shinzo Abe’s visit was packed with policy exchanges from maritime security to the TPP trade agenda. For a recap on all the major takeaways, watch Friday’s discussion on “US-Japan Security Cooperation after the Abe Visit.”

Sounds
On this week’s CSIS Podcast, SVP for Asia and Japan Chair Mike Green discusses the challenges Japan is facing with its updated defense posture and regional tensions.

I Like It Like That
Eye catching things in CSIS’s orbit

New details about Apple’s forthcoming super-sized iPad have leaked. And the web is blowing up.

Smiles
Indulge me. The New Orleans Jazz and Heritage Festival wrapped up Sunday, but I can’t stop thinking about the music and in particular the music of Henry Roeland Byrd, known more famously as “Professor Longhair.” Fess, as his fans call him, passed away in early 1980, but in New Orleans his music is as alive today as it was in his heyday. Inducted into the Rock and Roll Hall of Fame in 1992, Fess was a true rock pioneer. There’s a famous club in Uptown New Orleans called Tipitinas. It was named after the Professor Longhair song “Tipitina,” which you can watch him perform here with the Meters as his backing band. This is rare video. I’ll never stop smiling when I think of Fess and the musical gift he gave to the world.

Feedback
I always welcome and benefit from your feedback. Please drop me a line at [email protected].