The Evening CSIS September 8 2015
Good Evening,
Welcome to The Evening CSIS—my daily guide to key insights CSIS brings to the events of the day plus HIGHLY RECOMMENDED content from around the world. To subscribe, please click here and if you want to view this in your browser, click here.
This edition of The Evening CSIS is dedicated to our friend Andy Kohut who passed away this morning. Andy was a wonderful person and an innovator in the survey research community who had no equal: pewrsr.ch/1ENl9W1
Migrant Crisis
The UN Refugee Agency said today that Hungary faces a bigger wave of 42,000 asylum seekers in the next 10 days, as a crisis of epic proportions continues to grow in Europe, the Associated Press reports.
Dive Deeper: A new commentary by Brookings’ Luay Al-Khatteeb: “Hello, my name is Luay. I was a refugee.”
And, CFR’s Stewart M. Patrick last week authored “World on the Move: Understanding Europe’s Migration Crisis.”
Plus, in a new commentary published today, Chatham House’s Jane Kinninmont explores “Why Aren’t Gulf Countries Taking in Syrian Refugees?”
Keep Calm and Keep Continuing On
As Defense News reports today, a poll conducted by CSIS indicates that Washington insiders believe that the coming congressional budget wars will be solved with a full-year continuing resolution.
Dive Deeper: CSIS’s Todd Harrison today authored new commentary: “The Most Important Defense Budget Issue to Watch When Congress Returns from Recess.”
In that Number
2
The number of French jets that conducted a reconnaissance mission over Syria today. This is France’s first flight into Syrian airspace since the current conflict began.
Source: the New York Times.
Critical Question
Asked: With Congress back in session and the fiscal year ending in three weeks, what is the most pressing defense budget issue facing Congress?
Answered: Todd Harrison, director of defense budget analysis, CSIS: Perhaps the most urgent budget issue is the topline level of funding for defense. The Budget Control Act of 2011 (BCA) caps the total national defense budget in FY 2016 at $523 billion. DoD typically consumes about 95.5 percent of the national defense budget, so its proportionate share of the budget cap is about $499 billion. The Obama administration requested $534 billion for DoD in its base budget or $35 billion more than the budget cap allows. It requested an additional $51 billion in war-related funding, which does not count toward the budget cap, for a total DoD budget of $585 billion. If Congress passed the administration’s request and did nothing to modify the BCA, it would trigger an automatic across-the-board sequester that would cut the budget by the amount it exceeds the budget cap, $35 billion.
But it’s highly unlikely sequestration will be triggered in 2016. Republicans in Congress rejected the administration’s approach and instead passed a budget resolution earlier this year that calls for a base defense budget at the budget cap level and war-related funding that is $38 billion more than requested. This approach effectively gives the administration what it requested in total DoD funding (and a little extra), but it does so by moving funding from the base budget to the war budget to avoid triggering a sequester. The administration, however, has threatened a veto because moving funding from the base to the war budget does nothing to fix the long-term problem of the arbitrary fiscal constraints imposed by the BCA and does not provide equal relief for the nondefense side of the budget. So while both sides seem to agree on the total amount of defense spending for FY 2016, they remain far apart on how to get to that number.
Read the full analysis here.
One to Watch
Lauren Frayer (@lfrayer) is NPR’s Spain and Portugal correspondent and is currently on the ground in Hungary, documenting the refugee crisis there as itunfolds. Image credit: Twitter.
Optics
A sandstorm is sweeping through the Middle East; dozens have been hospitalized since it descended on the region yesterday. Newsweek has video of the unprecedented event.
Highly Recommended
Apple’s “backup plan,” by US News’ Tom Risen.
CSIS Tomorrow
Tomorrow at 10:00 a.m., CSIS will host policymakers for a discussion on current and expected Intended Nationally Determined Contributions in advance of the UN climate change conference in Paris later this year. Then at 12:30 p.m., John Blaxland joins CSIS for a roundtable on East Timor. And at 4:30 p.m., Andrew Natsios, director at the Scowcroft Institute of International Affairs, will speak on international development and key issues that define US foreign assistance.
This Town Tomorrow
Tomorrow at 7:00 a.m., the Intelligence and National Security Summit will take place, providing a platform for emerging issues and solutions related to intelligence policy. Among others, speakers will include James Clapper, director of national intelligence, John Brennan, director of the CIA, and LtGen Vincent Stewart, director of the DIA. To register for the event, click here.
CSIS on Demand
The US-Russia relationship may be facing challenges as significant as those during the Cold War. Last week, a group of experts looked specifically at the challenges of limiting non-strategic nuclear weapons; you can click here for their findings.
Sounds
Be sure to listen to CogitAsia’s podcast on Russia’s efforts to assist China’s massive military modernization program, featuring CSIS’s Paul Schwartz.
I Like It Like That
Eye-catching things in CSIS's orbit
A major discovery in Stonehenge —stone monoliths found buried nearby could have been part of the largest Neolithic monument built in England, archaeologists believe.
Smiles
The weather this past weekend in Washington felt like sunny, southern California at times, which really made me smile—and made me want to hear the sounds of southern California that I grew up listening to. Those sounds and the thought of California (physically 3,000 miles away from my home in suburban DC) leapt into my soul and captivated my dreams. And they still do.
You see, the first music I “discovered” in my parents record collection was the folk of Pete Seeger, the soul of Motown, and of course, the incomprehensible power of the Beatles and the Beach Boys.
But then, suddenly, another discovery—the music of Linda Ronstadt, the Eagles and Fleetwood Mac. Like the Beach Boys, their sound contained the warmth of the sun and I felt like I could actually hear sunshine coming out of the record grooves on the vinyl discs spinning along in our stereo cabinet.
Linda Ronstadt was my first crush. I think a lot of people feel that way. Her songs and performances in the mid-1970s are unlike anything before or since. Here’s why.
Feedback
I always welcome and benefit from your feedback. Please drop me a line at aschwartz@csis.org.