The Evolving Security Situation in Iraq

January 22, 2008

Data are  now available from MNF-I and the Iraqi government  that provide a much clearer  picture of the trends in violence and casualties in Iraq. The attached report provides maps and graphics on the levels of killings in Iraq, the levels  of violence by type, and the  trends in terms of violence in key provinces and in Baghdad. It presents both MNF-I and Iraqi data through early January  2008.

The MNF-I Data show a major drop in deaths and violence in Iraq from early 2006 through mid January 2008:

• Civilian deaths are down to 1/6th of their peak levels. Combined Coalition and Iraqi data show are down from peak of 3,000 per month in November 2006 to around 700 in December 2007. (The MNF-I count alone shows drop from over 1,500 in October-November 2006 to around 300 in December.
   
• The frequency of attacks is down to early 2005 levels by end of 2007; less than 40% of the peak level.

• Total high profile bombings down from peak of around 130 in June 2007 to around 40 in December 2007.
   
• IED explosions are down to about one-third of peak level in 2006-2007.
   
• Discoveries of weapons and explosive caches – shaped heavily by Iraqi HUMINT – are     well over twice the 2006 levels nationally, and are three times higher in Anbar.
• The fact remains, however, that this progress is  not "victory." Al Qa'ida remains  a threat, as does sectarian and  ethnic  violence not only between groups, but within them. Lasting success depends  on steady  further progress in political accommodation. Years of additional  effort will be needed in which the US helps Iraqi  forces fully defeat Al Qa'ida and other extremist groups and establish  lasting security and stability.  The US must also help the Iraqi government to:
   
  • Consolidate progress in Iraq forces: Independent for internal security by 2012; create ability to defend against foreign threats by 2018.
     
  • Restructure police and criminal justice efforts, make local security real.
     
  • Build effective governance and services at the national, provincial, and local level.