Fueling Discontent 

On September 13, Syria witnessed its most widespread public demonstrations since the fall of former president Bashar al Assad. The protests were triggered by the sharpest hike in a series of recent government fuel-price increases that have pushed prices 79 to 94 percent higher since the start of the year. This installment of Charting the Middle East traces the rapid rise in government-set fuel prices in Syria, highlighting how the Iran war’s economic effects are introducing new risks to regional stability.

Less than two years into Syria’s fragile political transition, the protests offer perhaps the most dramatic example to date of the Iran war’s economic ripple effects leading to significant domestic political unrest in the region. The demonstrations occurred in six of Syria’s 14 governorates including Aleppo, Hama, and Idlib—regions typically considered bastions of support for the new government.

Syria is particularly exposed to rising global energy costs. The Ministry of Information estimates that the country imports roughly three-quarters of its diesel and four-fifths of its gasoline needs. In particular, supplies of Russian crude oil and diesel fuel remain constrained by the Russia-Ukraine war adding to the upward pressure on prices. Maintenance at Syria’s Banias refinery has further reduced domestic refining capacity. The Ministry also attributed the September 13 price increases to these constraints alongside higher international energy prices, tighter refined-product supplies, and rising shipping and insurance costs. It argued that continuing to absorb these costs would strain public finances and threaten the state’s ability to finance fuel imports, essential services, and reconstruction.

On September 17, Energy Minister Mohammed Al-Bashir announced plans to restart some local refineries in a bid to ease cost-of-living pressures, although these steps have yet to be implemented.