Global Aging and the Future of Emerging Markets

The rich world may be leading the way into humanity’s graying future, but much of the developing world is not far behind. The CSIS Global Aging Initiative’s latest report, Global Aging and the Future of Emerging Markets, looks at the potential impact of shifting demographics on economic growth and social and political stability in emerging markets. It surveys all regions of the developing world, but primarily focuses on China, India, Latin America, and Russia.

The message of the report is one of cautious optimism. In any plausible scenario, the economic importance of emerging markets will continue to grow as a share of global GDP, global consumption, and global market capitalization. But the report also identifies real risks. The notion that the developing world, driven by the demographic transition and development, is heading linearly toward a new era of greater peace and prosperity is deeply flawed. For better or worse, the future will be more interesting than that.

Neil Howe, Richard Jackson, and Keisuke Nakashima