The Global Oil Market

March 1, 2006

The future of energy is of enormous strategic importance, and the current energy market faces major uncertainties and risks. The goal of this study is to provide a risk assessment of the global oil market. Cordesman and Al-Rodhan study six major oil-producing regions of the world: the Middle East, Africa, Asia and the Pacific, Europe and Eurasia, North America, and South and Central America. In each case, the authors outline national oil developments and focus on four major areas of risks and uncertainties: macroeconomic fluctuations, geopolitical risks, oil production uncertainties, and the nature of resources.

In addition to these uncertainties, the authors study the effect of robust energy modeling by agencies such as the International Energy Agency and the Energy Information Agency. They argue that rigorous, transparent, and credible analysis can improve understanding of the global energy markets and help provide policymakers with the tools needed to forge sound and realistic energy policies.

The Global Oil Market is the first study of its kind to look at the totality of production, resource, and geopolitical risks faced by the world’s oil-producing regions. In addition, Cordesman and Al-Rodhan look toward the future and how to best manage these uncertainties and risks.

Anthony H. Cordesman holds the Arleigh A. Burke Chair in Strategy at CSIS. He is also a national security analyst for ABC News, a frequent commentator on National Public Radio and the BBC, and the author of more than 20 books on U.S. security policy, energy policy, and the Middle East, including The Israeli-Palestinian War (Praeger/CSIS, 2005). Khalid R. Al-Rodhan is a fellow with the Burke Chair and coauthor with Cordesman of several books on energy security and military strategy, including Gulf Military Forces in an Era of Asymmetric War (Praeger/CSIS, forthcoming).