Global Trends in Terrorism Through 2016 and the Relative Role of ISIS and the Taliban

The United States no longer has an official database on any aspect of the global trends in terrorism because the National Counterterrorism Center (NCTC) has ceased to report on such trends. It does, however, have a START database maintained by the University of Maryland which it uses in its annual State Department Country reports on terrorism. A new report by Erin Miller and Michael Distler, Mass Casualty Explosives Attacks in Iraq and Afghanistan, provides the first public START update of its terrorism statistics that includes the 2016 year, and it highlights the attacks led by ISIS, ISIS “affiliates”, the Taliban, and other terrorist groups in Afghanistan.

The key patterns in these attacks are shown in Figure One below, and they raise a number of important issues. The article states that,

The total number of deaths caused by terrorist attacks in these two countries comprised nearly half (46%) of all fatalities worldwide between 2004 and 2016.1 During this period, 13 percent of the fatalities from terrorist attacks in Iraq and 15 percent of the fatalities from terrorist attacks in Afghanistan resulted from attacks against combatant targets.

The peak in 2014 coincides with the sharp increase in terrorist violence carried out by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL), particularly in Iraq, and by the Taliban in Afghanistan. Terrorist attacks and total fatalities from attacks attributed to the Taliban in Afghanistan continued to increase in 2015 before declining slightly in 2016. In contrast, the terrorist activity of ISIL in Iraq declined slightly in 2015 before increasing again in 2016. The global pattern during this time period indicates that the number of terrorist attacks and the number of resulting fatalities declined in 2015 and 2016, largely as a result of patterns of activity outside Iraq and Afghanistan, including substantial decreases in terrorist violence in Nigeria and Pakistan.

Figure One: Key Trends in Terrorism: Worldwide and In Iraq and Afghanistan

Total fatalities in terrorist attacks in Afghanistan, Iraq, and worldwide, 2000 – 2016

Types of targets of terrorist attacks in Iraq and Afghanistan, 2004 - 2016

Source: Erin Miller and Michael Distler, Mass Casualty Explosives Attacks in Iraq and Afghanistan, START Background Report, University of Maryland, June 2017,

The article does not define “terrorist,” or show how “terrorists” actions can be distinguished from insurgency. It also does not break out the data for Syria. This makes it very difficult to put the data in perspective, particularly because the START database ignores state terrorism by governments like the Assad regime. It does, however, make it clear that ISIS is only one part of the threat, and a relatively limited part of the clearly identified threat.

It also seems likely from the numbers in Figure 2 that they include a large number of attacks that occurred in what most would call insurgency warfare.

Figure 2: Key Metrics for Suicide and Vehicle Bombings

Five countries that experienced the most suicide and vehicle bombings, 1970 – 2016

Five perpetrator groups responsible for the most suicide and vehicle bombings, 1970 - 2016

Source: Erin Miller and Michael Distler, Mass Casualty Explosives Attacks in Iraq and Afghanistan, START Background Report, University of Maryland, June 2017,

For the majority (78%) of terrorist attacks in Iraq between 2004 and 2016 source documents did not identify a perpetrator group. ISIL (including the perpetrator groups that would later become ISIL such as al-Qaida in Iraq and the Islamic State of Iraq) was responsible for 92 percent of the remaining attacks. Asa'ib Ahl al-Haqq (formerly the Mahdi Army) was responsible for 2 percent of attacks for which a perpetrator was identified, and all other perpetrator groups identified were each responsible for less than 1 percent.

In Afghanistan, unidentified perpetrators carried out 39 percent of attacks between 2004 and 2016, and the Taliban was responsible for 95 percent of the attacks for which source documents identified a perpetrator. The Khorasan Chapter of the Islamic State carried out 2 percent of attacks in Afghanistan during this time period, and the Haqqani Network was responsible for 1 percent. All other perpetrator groups identified were responsible for less than 1 percent of attacks for which source documents identified a perpetrator.

These data are a warning that defeating ISIS in urban areas in Iraq and Syria will limit a key terrorist threat, but scarcely address the broader threat of terrorism, or necessarily reduce the level of instability and casualties even in Iraq and Syria – where other extremist movements, and sectarian and ethnic violence is already a serious problem.

These numbers make it clear that no U.S. or other official should confuse a very important defeat of one part of the terrorist threat with any broad victory in the “war on terrorism” or lasting defeat of the threat extremism poses to the United States and Europe, and above all to the largely Muslim countries where terrorism finds virtually all of its victims – which are overwhelmingly fellow Muslims.

This point is reinforced by an earlier START study by Erin Miller, with research assistance from Sheehan Kane, William Kammerer, and Brian Wingenroth: Patterns of Islamic State-Related Terrorism, 2002--2015; START, August 2016,

Between 2002 and 2015, more than 4,900 terrorist attacks were carried out by groups or organizations affiliated with the organization now known as the Islamic State. These attacks caused more than 33,000 deaths and 41,000 injuries (including perpetrator casualties), and involved more than 11,000 individuals held hostage or kidnapped. Excluding incidents where the perpetrator group was not identified , these attacks represented 13 percent of all terrorist attacks worldwide, 26 percent of all deaths, 28 percent of all injuries, and 24 percent of all kidnap victims or hostages due to terrorism during the same time period.

This latter report included data that focused only on ISIS, and the comparatively limited role of ISIS is all too clear from the graphs in Figure Three. It is also clear from the very broad definition of ISIS “affiliates,” most of which have no meaningful presence in Iraq and Syria, or control from the equivalent of something approaching an “ISIS central” and can change their affiliation at any time - realities made very clear in Figure Four.

The comparatively limited role of ISIS is all too clear from the graphs in Figure Three, which show just how limited that attacks by ISIS proper were in both regional and global terms when compare to the previous data. It is also clear from Figure Four, which shows the very broad definition of ISIS “affiliates” used in the study. Most have no meaningful presence in Iraq and Syria, and no control from the equivalent of something approaching an “ISIS central.” They can virtually all easily survive a defeat of ISIS in Iraq and Syria, and can change their affiliation at any.

Figure Three: ISIS Role in Worldwide Attacks: 2002-2015

Attack Patterns of ISIL-Related and Non-ISIL-Related Terrorist Attacks, 2002-2015

Source: Erin Miller, Sheehan Kane, William Kammerer, and Brian Wingenroth: Patterns of Islamic State-Related Terrorism, 2002--2015; START, August 2016

Figure Four: The Role of Key ISIS “Affiliates”

Ten Most Active ISIL Affiliates, 2014-2015

All Organizations Classified as ISIL “Affiliates” in the START Study, 2014-2015

Map of ISIS Proper in Syria and Iraq and ISIS Affiliates Outside the Key Zone of Combat

Source: Erin Miller, Sheehan Kane, William Kammerer, and Brian Wingenroth: Patterns of Islamic State-Related Terrorism, 2002--2015; START, August 2016

In short, the work by Erin Miller, Michael Distler, Sheehan Kane, William Kammerer, and Brian Wingenroth shows trends which confirm repeated warnings that the struggle against extremism and terrorism is a global one, and is also one that is all too likely to last for well more than a decade, regardless of what happens to the current cadres of ISIS in Iraq and Syria.
Photo credit: SHAH MARAI/AFP/Getty Images