The Gulf and the Arabian Peninsula

January 7, 2013

The US faces major challenges in dealing with Iran, the threat of terrorism, and the tide of political instability in the Middle East.  Following visits to the Gulf and discussions with top US, Gulf, and European officials by Burke Chair Anthony Cordesman, the Burke Chair at CSIS in Strategy is issuing an updated edition of its study on Iran’s military threat in the Gulf, titled “The Gulf and the Arabian Peninsula.” This new edition builds on previous Burke Chair reports, including:
 

• US and Iranian Strategic Competition: The Conventional and Asymmetric Dimensions - This study looks at Iran’s Military forces in detail, and the balance of forces in the Gulf Region.
• US and Iranian Strategic Competition: The Missile and Nuclear – This study looks at Iran’s Missile and Nuclear forces.

“The Gulf and the Arabian Peninsula” examines in detail the Iranian military threat in the Gulf, as well as US-Gulf security cooperation with the Southern Gulf States. The report is written by Anthony H. Cordesman and Robert M. Shelala II, and is available on the CSIS web site at https://csis-website-prod.s3.amazonaws.com/s3fs-public/legacy_files/files/publication/120228_Iran_Ch_VI_Gulf_State.pdf

It examines the growing US security partnership with Bahrain, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE – established as the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC). It analyzes the steady growth in this partnership that has led to over $64 billion in new US arms transfer agreements during 2008-2011.

It also examines the strengths and weaknesses of the security cooperation between the Southern Gulf states, and their relative level of political, social, and economic stability. The study focuses on the need for enhanced unity and security cooperation between the individual Gulf states. It finds that such progress is critical if they are to provide effective deterrence and defense against Iran. Improve their counterterrorism capabilities, and enhance other aspects of their internal security.

The study includes numerous charts and tables, and has the following contents:

 INTRODUCTION    1

THE US AND THE ARAB GULF STATES: CHALLENGES AND INTERESTS    3

Enhanced US Partnership with the Southern Gulf States    4

The Strengths and Weaknesses of Gulf Partners    9

Southern Gulf Alignments with the US    10

The Impact of the Divisions Between the Arabian Gulf States    13

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) and Moves Towards Federation and Unity    14

Movements Towards Enhanced Cooperation    15

GCC Relations with the US    16

GCC Relations with Iran    17

Movements Towards Greater Unity and “Federation”    20

IRANIAN INTERESTS IN THE GULF    21

INTERNAL DYNAMICS AFFECTING US AND IRANIAN COMPETITION    23

Demographic Trends    23

Sectarian, Ethnic, Tribal and Regional Divisions    30

Resource Trends    33

Economic Trends    38

The Need for Country-by-Country Case Studies    42

SAUDI ARABIA    43

Saudi-Iranian Competition    47

Tensions Over Saudi Shia    48

Tensions Over Energy Resources    51

Tensions Over the Hajj    51

Tensions Over Bahrain    52

Tensions Over Terrorism and Covert Operations    53

Tensions Over Iraq    55

Tensions Over the Iranian Nuclear Program    57

Tensions Over Middle East Competition    57

Saudi Arabia’s Security Relations with the US    59

Policy Implications for the US    62

KUWAIT    66

Kuwait’s Relations with Iran    69

Kuwait’s Relations with the US    72

Political Divisions Within Kuwait    78

Policy Implications    80

BAHRAIN    81

Bahrain’s Sunni-Shia Crisis    84

Bahrain’s Relations with Iran    88

Bahrain’s Relations with the US    89

Implications for US Policy    92

OMAN    96

Oman’s Relations with Iran    99

Oman’s Relations with the US    100

Policy Implications for the US    102

QATAR    104

Qatar’s Relations with Iran    107

Qatar’s Relations with the US    110

Implications for US Policy    111

UAE    114

UAE’s Relations with Iran    117

UAE’s Relations with the US    122

Implications for US Policy    124

YEMEN    126

Yemen’s Relations with Iran    129

Yemen’s Relations with the US    131

Implications for US Policy    135

GULF COOPERATION COUNCIL    139

Planning and Interoperability    139

Create a GCC Force Planning Exercise    139

Create a Standardization and Interoperability Committee and Staff    140

Create a Technology and Procurement Committee and Staff    140

Create a Working Group on Arms Control    140

Command, Control, Communications, Computer, Intelligence (C4I), Sensor, and Battle Management (BM) Systems    140

Create a fully integrated air and surface-to-air missile control and warning system    141

Create a fully integrated maritime surveillance system    141

Create a Joint Intelligence Center    142

GCC Net Assessment Group    142

Building Common Training and Exercise Capacity    142

Survey training facilities to determine how to make best use on a GCC-wide basis    142

Focus on key contingencies    143

Preparing for Missile and WMD Threats    143

Areas For Improved Planning and Dialogue    143

Plan a Joint, Integrated Missile Defense System    143

Focusing on Other Key Mission Areas    144

Iraq, the Iraqi Border, and the Kuwaiti “Hinge”    144

Yemen Border Security and Threats    144

Mine and Anti-Submarine (ASW) Warfare    145

Strait/Gulf of Oman/Indian Ocean/Red Sea/Horn of Africa    145

Improving Internal Security Efforts    145

GCC Identity Cards, Passport Data    145

A GCC-wide Intelligence Effort for Counterterrorism and Dealing with Popular Unrest    146

GCC Internal Security Center    146

Common Counterterrorism Training    146

Common Police and Crowd Control Standards and Training    146

GCC-wide Rapid Reaction Forces for Counterterrorism and Dealing with Violent Unrest    147

Encouraging Stability Through Economic, Educational, and Social Measures    147

Education    148

GCC Domestic and Foreign Labor Policies    148

Setting Common Social and Economic Standards/Goals    148

Building Dignity, Trust, and Faith in Government Integrity    149

CREATING GCC STUDY AND PLANNING EFFORTS    149

GCC Development Report    150

GCC Survey    150

GCC Jobs Creation Program    150

GCC Housing Program    150

Improving Energy and Infrastructure Security: Passive Defense    150

Creating More Effective Cooperation with Power Projection Forces Outside the GCC    151

FUTURE IMPLICATIONS FOR US POLICY    152

Scenario I – Conflict Over the Iran Nuclear Program    153

Scenario II – Continued Tension Short of Conflict    153


Other recent studies in this series include:

U.S. and Iranian Strategic Competition: The Sanctions game: Energy, Arms Control, and Regime Change - Examines the impact of sanctions on the Iranian regime, Iran’s energy sector, and the prospects for regime change in Tehran.

Iraq After US Withdrawal: US Policy and the Iraqi Search for Security and Stability - Examines the role Iran has played in Iraq since 2003, and how the US has tried to counter it.

U.S.-Iranian Competition in the Levant: Parts I & II – Examine the changing military balance in the region;  US and Iranian interests in Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, the Palestinian territories, Egypt and Syria; and the internal stability of each state in a time of political upheaval.

The United States and Iran: Competition involving Turkey and the South Caucasus - Analyzes the US and Iranian competition over influence in Armenia, Turkey, Azerbaijan and Georgia.

Competition in Afghanistan, Central Asia, and Pakistan - Examines the important role Iran plays in the ongoing conflict in Afghanistan, and how the US and Iranian rivalry affects Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Central Asia.

U.S. and Iranian Strategic Competition: The Impact of China and Russia - Examines the complex and evolving relationships between China, Russia, Iran and the US.